United States Senate elections in Montana, 2012
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Jon Tester  |
Jon Tester |
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Tossup (Prior to election) |
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Voters in Montana elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.
Incumbent Jon Tester (D) won re-election to the U.S. Senate on November 6, 2012.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: Montana has an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 11, 2012. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6, 2012. Late registration is also available through the close of Election Day.[2]
- See also: Montana elections, 2012
Incumbent: The election filled the Class 1 Senate seat, which was held by Jon Tester (D). First elected in 2006, Tester ran for and won re-election in 2012.
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. Click here for more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan. Please contact us about errors in this list.
General election candidates
According to the website Daily Kos, this race was one of nine top-ballot 2012 races that contained Libertarian candidates who received more total votes than was the difference between the Democratic winner and the GOP runner-up. In this case, Dan Cox took in over 12,500 more votes than the number that separated Tester and Rehberg.[3]
May 8, 2012, primary results
Democratic primary
- Jon Tester:88,720 Incumbent[4]
Republican primary
- Denny Rehberg:105,632 U.S. Representative[5]
- Dennis Teske:33,079 Farmer[6]
Libertarian primary
Note: Jerry McConnell initially appeared on the official candidate list, but later withdrew.
Race background
Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006, was seeking re-election in the 2012 election. In the June 5, 2012 primary, Tester ran unopposed on the Democratic ticket.[8] Representative Denny Rehberg defeated challenger Dennis Teske to win his party's nomination for Tester's seat.[8]
Also running in 2012 were Libertarian candidates Dan Cox and Jerry McConnell. Secretary of State Linda McCulloch said that a separate Libertarian primary would have cost counties a combined total of $350,000 to $390,000. Instead of holding a Libertarian primary, both candidates were on the general election ballot.
Libertarian primaries typically draw anywhere from 3 percent to 5 percent of the general election vote, but counties would nevertheless have been required to print the same number of Libertarian ballots as they do Republican and Democratic ones. State election officials cited Montana law (MCA 13-10-209), which stated that the election administrator did not need to prepare a primary ballot for a party that did not have candidates for more than half the offices on the ballot.[9]
Competitiveness
The New York Times' analysis of the 2012 Montana Senate race rated it as a toss-up; the seat was held by a Democrat, but could have switched to Republican.[10]
Election results
General Election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |  Jon Tester Incumbent |
48.6% | 236,123 | |
| Republican | Denny Rehberg | 44.9% | 218,051 | |
| Libertarian | Dan Cox | 6.6% | 31,892 | |
| Total Votes | 486,066 | |||
Republican Primary
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Denny Rehberg |
76.2% | 105,632 |
| Dennis Teske | 23.8% | 33,079 |
| Total Votes | 138,711 | |
Race rating
Cook Political Report
Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[11]
|
Solid Democratic
|
Tossup |
Lean Republican
|
| Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Montana Senate | |
|---|---|
| Month | Rating |
| November 1, 2012[12] | |
| October 4, 2012[13] | |
| September 13, 2012[14] | |
| August 21, 2012[15] | |
| August 11, 2012[16] | |
| July 12, 2012[17] | |
| May 31, 2012[18] | |
| May 10, 2012[19] | |
| March 22, 2012[20] | |
| March 1, 2012[21] | |
| January 26, 2012[22] | |
| December 22, 2011[23] | |
| December 1, 2011[24] | |
Sabato's Crystal Ball
The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012, detailing the eight races in the Senate in 2012 that would decide the political fate of which party ended up with control in 2013.[25] The seat rated a toss-up that the Sabato's Crystal Ball believed was most likely to change hands was the Senate seat in Montana.[25] The article noted that incumbent Jon Tester was a slight underdog against challenger Denny Rehberg.[25]
Polls
2012
| Jon Tester vs. Denny Rehberg | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Jon Tester | Denny Rehberg | Undecided | Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Rassmussen Reports (October 29, 2012) | 49% | 48% | 2% | 2% | +/-4.5 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Pharos Research Group (October 26-28, 2012) | 48.2% | 46.6% | 0% | 5.2% | +/-3.5 | 799 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (October 17, 2012) | 46% | 44% | 7% | 3% | +/-3.5 | 806 | |||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (October 14, 2012) | 48% | 48% | 2% | 3% | +/-4.5 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (August 20, 2012) | 43% | 47% | 5% | 5% | +/-4.5 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (April 26-29, 2012) | 48% | 43% | 9% | 0% | +/-3.2 | 932 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 47.03% | 46.1% | 4.17% | 3.03% | +/-3.95 | 672.83 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
On May 1, 2012, Public Policy Polling (PPP) released the results of a survey in which incumbent Montana Senator Jon Tester pulled ahead of his Republican rival, Denny Rehberg, leading him 48 to 43 percent. In most prior polls, Rehberg had been leading incumbent Tester by a few percentage points.[26]
Campaign donors
Jon Tester
| Jon Tester (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[27] | March 31, 2012 | $3,825,917.54 | $1,214,716.69 | $(755,268.12) | $4,285,366.11 | ||||
| Pre-primary[28] | May 23, 2012 | $4,285,366.11 | $781,465.59 | $(994,528.22) | $4,072,303.48 | ||||
| July Quarterly[29] | June 30, 2012 | $4,072,303.48 | $1,160,124.55 | $(1,603,215.64) | $3,629,212.39 | ||||
| October Quarterly[30] | October 15, 2012 | $3,629,212.39 | $2,316,207.05 | $(4,610,560.56) | $1,334,858.88 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $5,472,513.88 | $(7,963,572.54) | ||||||||
Denny Rehberg
Rehberg raised $2.4 million in the third quarter, leaving him with $1.7 million cash-on-hand.[31]
| Denny Rehberg (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[32] | March 31, 2012 | $2,075,148.29 | $1,199,868.01 | $(540,860.46) | $2,734,155.84 | ||||
| Pre-primary[33] | May 23, 2012 | $2,734,155.84 | $402,316.86 | $(527,041.99) | $2,609,430.71 | ||||
| July Quarterly[34] | June 30, 2012 | $2,609,430.71 | $759,760.07 | $(658,460.03) | $2,710,730.75 | ||||
| October Quarterly[35] | October 15, 2012 | $2,710,730.75 | $2,439,515.71 | $(3,245,746.23) | $1,904,500.23 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $4,801,460.65 | $(4,972,108.71) | ||||||||
Election history
2008
On November 4, 2008, Max Baucus won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Bob Kelleher (R).[36]
| United States Senate, Montana General Election, 2008 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Max Baucus Incumbent |
72.9% | 348,289 | |
| Republican | Bob Kelleher | 27.1% | 129,369 | |
| Total Votes | 477,658 | |||
2006
On November 9, 2006, Jon Tester was elected to the United States Senate. He defeated the incumbent Conrad Burns (R) and Stan Jones (Libertarian).[37]
| United States Senate, Montana General Election, 2006 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Jon Tester |
49.2% | 199,845 | |
| Republican | Conrad Burns | 48.3% | 196,283 | |
| Libertarian | Stan Jones | 2.6% | 10,377 | |
| Total Votes | 406,505 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2012
- United States Senate elections, 2012
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Montana"
- ↑ Montana Secretary of State, "Voter Information," accessed July 25, 2012
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Libertarians provided the margin for Democrats and at least nine elections," November 15, 2012
- ↑ Billings Gazette, "Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear," accessed January 6, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "Mining Companies Back Friend’s Bid for Senate," accessed January 6, 2012
- ↑ Billings Gazette, "Political unknown drops into U.S. Senate race" accessed February 4, 2011
- ↑ Ravalli Republic, "11 running for Montana governor; Hamilton man joins U.S. Senate race" March 13, 2012
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Montana Secretary of State, "Election Results" accessed June 5, 2012
- ↑ Q2 KTVQ "MT Secretary of State will not hold Libertarian primary" March 22, 2012
- ↑ The New York Times, "2012 Ratings Senate," accessed September 17, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011 (dead link)
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," September 13, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 21, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 11, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
- ↑ 25.0 25.1 25.2 Center for Politics, "Tilting the Toss Ups – the Eight Races That Will Decide the Senate" accessed April 9, 2012
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Jon Tester pulls into lead in Montana Senate race" May 7, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jon Tester April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jon Tester Pre-primary," accessed October 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jon Tester July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jon Tester October Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2012
- ↑ Danny Rehberg's campaign website, News & Events
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Denny Rehberg April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Denny Rehberg Pre-primary," accessed October 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Denny Rehberg July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Denny Rehberg October Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008"
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006"
