United States Senate elections in Montana, 2012

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections in Montana

Candidates • Polls • Election History

November 6 Election Winner: Jon Tester

Incumbent prior to election: Jon Tester

Cook Political Report Race Rating      Tossup (Prior to election)

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2012 U.S. House Elections

Voters in Montana elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

Incumbent Jon Tester (D) won re-election to the U.S. Senate on November 6, 2012.

Candidate Filing Deadline	Primary Election	General Election
March 12, 2012	June 5, 2012	November 6, 2012

Primary: Montana has a mixed primary: Democrats hold an open primary, meaning any registered voter can vote in the party's primary, while Republicans hold a closed caucus, restricted to party members.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 11. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6. Late registration is also available through the close of Election Day.

See also: Montana elections, 2012

Incumbent: The election filled the Class 1 Senate seat, which was held by Jon Tester (D). First elected in 2006, Tester ran for and won re-election in 2012.

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Jon Tester

Denny Rehberg

Dan Cox

According to the website Daily Kos, this race was one of nine top-ballot 2012 races that contained Libertarian candidates who received more total votes than was the difference between the Democratic winner and the GOP runner-up. In this case, Dan Cox took in over 12,500 more votes than the number that separated Tester and Rehberg.

May 8, 2012 primary results

Democratic primary

• Jon Tester:88,720 Incumbenta

Republican primary

• Denny Rehberg:105,632 U.S. Representativea
• Dennis Teske:33,079 Farmer

Libertarian primary

• Dan Coxa

Note: Jerry McConnell initially appeared on the official candidate list, but later withdrew.

Race background

Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006, was seeking re-election in the 2012 election. In the June 5 primary, Tester ran unopposed on the Democratic ticket. Representative Denny Rehberg defeated challenger Dennis Teske to win his party's nomination for Tester's seat.

Also running in 2012 were Libertarian candidates Dan Cox and Jerry McConnell. The unusual presence of two Libertarian primary contenders in the race has lead the state’s election chief to put both Libertarian candidates on the general election ballot instead of conducting a costly and separate Libertarian primary.

Secretary of State Linda McCulloch said that a separate Libertarian primary would have cost counties a combined total of $350,000 to $390,000.

Libertarian primaries typically draw anywhere from 3 percent to 5 percent of the general election vote, but counties would nevertheless have been required to print the same number of Libertarian ballots as they do Republican and Democratic ones.

State election officials cited Montana law (MCA 13-10-209), which states that the election administrator does not need to prepare a primary ballot for a party that does not have candidates for more than half the offices on the ballot.

Competitiveness

Republican leaders targeted Senator Tester, who they see as the key to their takeover of the Senate. Polls showed a tight race between Tester and Rehberg heading into the November general election. The New York Times' analysis of the 2012 Montana Senate race rated it as a toss-up; the seat is currently held by a Democrat, but could switch to Republican.

Election Results

General Election

U.S. Senate, Montana, General Election, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Jon Tester Incumbent	48.6%	236,123
	Republican	Denny Rehberg	44.9%	218,051
	Libertarian	Dan Cox	6.6%	31,892
Total Votes				486,066
Source: Montana Secretary of State "2012 Election Center"

Republican Primary

U.S. Senate-Montana Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Denny Rehberg	76.2%	105,632
Dennis Teske	23.8%	33,079
Total Votes		138,711

Race rating

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Montana Senate
Month	Rating
November 1, 2012
October 4, 2012
September 13, 2012
August 21, 2012
August 11, 2012
July 12, 2012
May 31, 2012
May 10, 2012
March 22, 2012
March 1, 2012
January 26, 2012
December 22, 2011
December 1, 2011

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012 detailing the 8 races in the Senate in 2012 that will decide the political fate of which party will end up with control in 2013. The seat rated a a toss-up that the Sabato's Crystal Ball believes is most likely to change hands is the Senate seat in Montana. The article notes that incumbent Jon Tester is a slight underdog against challenger Denny Rehberg.

Polls

2012

Jon Tester vs. Denny Rehberg
Response	Public Policy Polling (April 26-29, 2012)	Rasmussen Reports (August 20, 2012)	Rasmussen Reports (October 14, 2012)	Public Policy Polling (October 17, 2012)	Pharos Research Group (October 26-28, 2012)	Rassmussen Reports (October 29, 2012)	Average
Jon Tester	48%	43%	48%	46%	48.2%	49%	47.03%
Denny Rehberg	43%	47%	48%	44%	46.6%	48%	46.1%
Undecided	9%	5%	2%	7%	0%	2%	4.167%
Other	0%	5%	3%	3%	5.2%	2%	3.03%
Number polled	932	500	500	806	799	500	672.83
Margin of error	+/-3.2	+/-4.5%	+/-4.5%	+/-3.5%	+/-3.5%	+/-4.5%	3.95%
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

On May 1, 2012, Public Policy Polling (PPP) released the results of a survey in which incumbent Montana Senator Jon Tester pulled ahead of his Republican rival, Denny Rehberg, leading him 48 to 43 percent. In most prior polls, Rehberg had been leading incumbent Tester by a few percentage points.

Campaign donors

Jon Tester

Jon Tester (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly	March 31, 2012	$3,825,917.54	$1,214,716.69	$(755,268.12)	$4,285,366.11
Pre-primary	May 23, 2012	$4,285,366.11	$781,465.59	$(994,528.22)	$4,072,303.48
July Quarterly	June 30, 2012	$4,072,303.48	$1,160,124.55	$(1,603,215.64)	$3,629,212.39
October Quarterly	October 15, 2012	$3,629,212.39	$2,316,207.05	$(4,610,560.56)	$1,334,858.88
			Running totals
			$5,472,513.88	$(7,963,572.54)

Denny Rehberg

Rehberg raised $2.4 million in the third quarter, leaving him with $1.7 million cash-on-hand.

Denny Rehberg (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
Report	Date Filed	Beginning Balance	Total Contributions for Reporting Period	Expenditures	Cash on Hand
April Quarterly	March 31, 2012	$2,075,148.29	$1,199,868.01	$(540,860.46)	$2,734,155.84
Pre-primary	May 23, 2012	$2,734,155.84	$402,316.86	$(527,041.99)	$2,609,430.71
July Quarterly	June 30, 2012	$2,609,430.71	$759,760.07	$(658,460.03)	$2,710,730.75
October Quarterly	October 15, 2012	$2,710,730.75	$2,439,515.71	$(3,245,746.23)	$1,904,500.23
			Running totals
			$4,801,460.65	$(4,972,108.71)

Election history

2008

On November 4, 2008, Max Baucus won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Bob Kelleher (R).

United States Senate, Montana General Election, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Max Baucus Incumbent	72.9%	348,289
	Republican	Bob Kelleher	27.1%	129,369
Total Votes				477,658

2006

On November 9, 2006, Jon Tester was elected to the United States Senate. He defeated the incumbent Conrad Burns (R) and Stan Jones (Libertarian).

United States Senate, Montana General Election, 2006
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Jon Tester	49.2%	199,845
	Republican	Conrad Burns	48.3%	196,283
	Libertarian	Stan Jones	2.6%	10,377
Total Votes				406,505

See also

• United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2012
• United States Senate elections, 2012

External links

• Montana Secretary of State--2012 Candidate list