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Analysis of incumbency advantage in the 2014 school board elections
From the top of the ballot to the bottom, incumbents hold significant advantages when they run for re-election.
These advantages can include higher name recognition, experience in the position and whatever accomplishments or credentials they can use to promote their campaigns. In order to win, challengers must show voters not only that they are qualified for the position, but also that they can serve better than the current officeholder.
Over the past 10 election cycles, an average of 86.1 percent of U.S. Senate incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Easily surpassing them are the 94.2 percent of U.S. House incumbents who retained their seats since 1996.[1]
School board incumbents also hold a considerable advantage over challengers, albeit a smaller one by comparison. No less than 81.31 percent of school board incumbents who ran for re-election in 2014 won another term in America's largest school districts. Ballotpedia conducted the following study using data from the 2014 elections to investigate the advantages of incumbency in school board elections.
Note: The Anne Arundel County Public Schools Board of Education only holds retention elections. Though the district held a retention election in 2014, it is excluded from the statistics below.
Overview
The following statistics about school board elections in 2014 apply to the top 1,000 public school districts, as measured by student enrollment:
- A total of 2,189 school board seats were up for election in 670 school districts in 37 states.
- 75.51 percent of incumbents whose seats were on the ballot ran for re-election.
- 35.81 percent of those incumbents ran unopposed.
- 124 school districts held elections in which all the incumbents ran unopposed.
- Only 30 districts with 58 seats up for election featured no incumbents running.
- 81.31 percent of incumbents were re-elected, including unopposed incumbents.
- 70.88 percent of incumbents who faced challengers won re-election.
- 61.40 percent of all seats up for election were retained by incumbents.
Success rates
| What's the difference between at-large elections and by-district elections? |
|---|
There are two primary methods of conducting school board elections: at-large elections and by-district elections.
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Success rates in this study were calculated by counting the number of incumbents who ultimately won re-election. Success rates were split into two types: overall and contested.
- Overall success rates include unopposed incumbents who won re-election without facing any challengers.
- Contested success rates include only incumbents who faced at least one challenger in their re-election bids.
Incumbents who faced only write-in candidates were considered unopposed. Incumbents who ran unopposed in a general election after defeating one or more candidates in a primary election were not counted as unopposed, since they did face a challenger at some point in the election process.
Success rates by election method
Success rates for contested incumbents in 2014 varied depending on the method in which elections were conducted. When including those who ran without opposition, however, success rates remained very similar regardless of election method. In total, 81.31 percent of school board incumbents who ran for re-election retained their seats. The highest percentage of successful incumbents occurred in partisan elections, with 85.27 percent keeping their seats. The lowest percentage of re-elected incumbents occurred in nonpartisan elections, with 80.83 percent winning another term.
When comparing success rates of incumbents who faced challengers, the percentages change more significantly. Overall, 70.88 percent of contested incumbents won re-election to their seats. The highest percentage of contested incumbents retaining their seats occurred in at-large elections at 80.13 percent. By-district elections had the lowest incumbency retention rate at 64.68 percent for contested races.
\| \n <pbars size=700x500 title="" grid=true ymin=0 ymax=100 legend colorscheme=excel> ,Overall success rate,Contested success rate All elections,81.31,70.88 At-large,83.05,80.13 By-district,80.98,64.68 Nonpartisan,80.83,71.47 Partisan,85.27,68.33 </pbars>| Success rates by election method |
|---|
At-large and by-district elections
At-large elections proved more advantageous than by-district elections for incumbents in 2014. A total of 531 incumbents ran for re-election in 255 school districts that held at-large school board elections. By-district elections were more common, with 415 school districts holding elections of that type. Overall, 1,120 incumbents ran for re-election in by-district elections.
| Incumbency advantage in at-large and by-district elections | ||
|---|---|---|
| By the numbers | At-large elections | By-district elections |
| Number of school districts holding elections | 255 | 415 |
| Number of seats up for election | 740 | 1,449 |
| Percentage of incumbents seeking re-election | 71.76% | 77.39% |
| Overall success rate (all incumbents, including unopposed) | 83.05% | 80.98% |
| Contested success rate (only incumbents who faced challengers) | 80.13% | 64.68% |
| Percentage of incumbents running unopposed | 14.31% | 46.16% |
| Average number of challengers in primary election | 6.55 | 2.09 |
| Average number of challengers in general election | 4.88 | 1.53 |
Partisan and nonpartisan elections
Partisan elections were slightly more advantageous than nonpartisan elections for incumbents overall in 2014. Nonpartisan elections, however, had a higher percentage of incumbents win when they faced challengers compared to partisan elections. A total of 1,393 incumbents sought re-election in nonpartisan races in 612 school districts. Only 58 school districts held partisan races in 2014, with 258 incumbents running for re-election.
| Incumbency advantage in partisan and nonpartisan elections | ||
|---|---|---|
| By the numbers | Partisan elections | Nonpartisan elections |
| Number of school districts holding elections | 58 | 612 |
| Number of seats up for election | 326 | 1,863 |
| Percentage of incumbents seeking re-election | 79.14% | 74.77% |
| Overall success rate (all incumbents, including unopposed) | 85.27% | 80.83% |
| Contested success rate (only incumbents who faced challengers) | 68.33% | 71.47% |
| Percentage of incumbents running unopposed | 53.49% | 32.81% |
Contested success rates in primary, general and runoff elections
In the 2014 school board elections, incumbents were most successful against challengers when they ran in primary elections compared to when they ran in general and runoff elections. The 53.13 percent success rate in runoff elections suggests that if a challenger can force a runoff, the advantage of incumbency nearly shrinks to a toss-up.
| Incumbency advantage in primary, general and runoff elections | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| By the numbers | Primary elections | General elections | Runoff elections |
| Number of seats in contested races | 80 | 1,043 | 32 |
| Success rate for contested incumbents | 82.50% | 73.06% | 53.13% |
Contested success rates based on number of challengers
Incumbents were most successful in contested races when they faced three challengers, whether running in a primary or a general election. They were next most successful when running against two challengers in a primary election and four or more challengers in a general election.
| Incumbent success rates based on number of challengers | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of challengers | Primary election success rate | General election success rate | Runoff election success rate |
| One challenger | 62.96% | 67.97% | 53.13% |
| Two challengers | 93.75% | 70.63% | N/A* |
| Three challengers | 100.00% | 80.58% | N/A* |
| Four or more challengers** | 88.46% | 76.65% | N/A* |
| *Runoff elections include a maximum of two candidates. Thus, incumbents faced only one challenger in runoff elections. **When running against four or more challengers, incumbents faced an average of 7.0 challengers in primary elections and an average of 6.1 challengers in general elections. | |||
Election returns
Incumbents won more often than challengers in the 2014 elections, but how much did they win by?
The answer to that question varied depending on the type of election incumbents ran in and the method by which the elections were conducted. Overall, incumbents won by greater margins in primary elections than general or runoff elections. That is also when they faced a larger number of challengers on average.
| Percentage by which incumbents won | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election method | Primary elections | General elections | Runoff elections | |||
| Average % incumbent won by | Average number of challengers | Average % incumbent won by | Average number of challengers | Average % incumbent won by | Average number of challengers | |
| All elections | 46.19% | 3.80 | 31.46% | 3.15 | 26.93% | 1 |
| At-large elections | 39.36% | 6.55 | 25.97% | 4.88 | N/A* | N/A* |
| By-district elections | 49.23% | 2.09 | 36.55% | 1.52 | 26.93% | 1 |
| *At-large elections do not result in runoff elections as there are multiple winners. | ||||||
| Percentage by which incumbents won |
|---|
Analysis by state
The following eight states had 100 percent incumbency success rates in their 2014 school board elections: Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Rhode Island and South Dakota. All of the incumbents in four of those states (Connecticut, Idaho, Montana and North Dakota) defeated challengers for their seats. The others had some incumbents who ran unopposed. The 100 percent success rate was easier to achieve in these states than others, however, as none of these eight states had more than five top enrollment school districts holding elections.
After eliminating states that had fewer than 20 top enrollment school district elections in 2014, Arizona had the highest overall success rate for incumbents, with 89.74 percent winning re-election. Over a third of the incumbents running in Arizona, however, were unopposed. When looking at only races with one or more challengers, Michigan had the highest incumbent contested success rate, with 84.44 percent defeating challengers to retain their seats.
| Incumbency analysis by state | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Districts up for election | Districts with no incumbents running | Seats up for election | Incumbents running for re-election | Unopposed incumbents | Incumbents who were re-elected | Total success rate | Success rate for contested incumbents |
| Alabama | 12 | 2 | 25 | 19 | 10 | 15 | 78.95% | 55.56% |
| Alaska | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 85.71% | 75.00% |
| Arizona | 30 | 6 | 70 | 39 | 15 | 35 | 89.74% | 83.33% |
| Arkansas | 7 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 62.50% | 40.00% |
| California | 138 | 5 | 409 | 318 | 90 | 251 | 78.93% | 70.61% |
| Connecticut | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Delaware | 5 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Florida | 38 | 0 | 124 | 97 | 26 | 79 | 81.44% | 74.65% |
| Georgia | 40 | 1 | 131 | 104 | 53 | 90 | 86.54% | 72.55% |
| Idaho | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Illinois | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Indiana | 26 | 1 | 83 | 71 | 29 | 56 | 78.87% | 64.29% |
| Kentucky | 13 | 0 | 29 | 23 | 7 | 18 | 78.26% | 68.75% |
| Louisiana | 21 | 0 | 224 | 178 | 106 | 156 | 87.64% | 69.44% |
| Maryland | 11 | 0 | 42 | 27 | 2 | 20 | 74.07% | 72.00% |
| Michigan | 23 | 1 | 77 | 56 | 11 | 50 | 89.29% | 86.67% |
| Minnesota | 9 | 0 | 33 | 23 | 5 | 20 | 86.96% | 83.33% |
| Mississippi | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 75.00% | 75.00% |
| Missouri | 20 | 1 | 57 | 37 | 8 | 33 | 86.49% | 82.76% |
| Montana | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Nebraska | 4 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Nevada | 3 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 71.43% | 50.00% |
| New Jersey | 19 | 0 | 58 | 43 | 6 | 34 | 79.07% | 75.68% |
| New York | 16 | 0 | 47 | 34 | 8 | 28 | 82.35% | 76.92% |
| North Carolina | 34 | 1 | 126 | 91 | 19 | 63 | 69.23% | 61.11% |
| North Dakota | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Oklahoma | 13 | 5 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 80.00% | 33.33% |
| Rhode Island | 2 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| South Carolina | 23 | 0 | 95 | 74 | 38 | 59 | 79.73% | 58.33% |
| South Dakota | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Tennessee | 20 | 0 | 87 | 61 | 23 | 46 | 75.41% | 60.53% |
| Texas | 82 | 2 | 226 | 170 | 76 | 139 | 81.76% | 67.02% |
| Utah | 14 | 0 | 50 | 38 | 11 | 30 | 78.95% | 70.37% |
| Virginia | 9 | 2 | 32 | 24 | 5 | 16 | 66.67% | 57.89% |
| West Virginia | 9 | 0 | 28 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 76.19% | 73.68% |
| Wisconsin | 11 | 0 | 30 | 26 | 13 | 23 | 88.46% | 76.92% |
| Wyoming | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 75.00% | 75.00% |
See also
- School board elections portal
- School board elections, 2014
- Ballotpedia's 2014 school board election coverage plan
Footnotes
