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Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010
From Ballotpedia
The Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010 was a service provided by Congressional Quarterly Politics that ranked each of the 37 gubernatorial contests in 2010 as either:
- Tossup
- Likely Democratic
- Likely Republican
- Leans Democratic
- Leans Republican
- Safe Democratic
- Safe Republican
The rankings were compiled by CQ's staff of editors and reporters who "examine past election results, demographics and party registration figures to determine which races are likely to be the most competitive."[1]
| CQ Calls It - 2010 Governors | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Seats Held | Seats in Play | Predicted Balance of Power | |
| Democratic | 27 | 19 | 24 | |
| GOP | 23 | 18 | 26 | |
Rankings by month[2]
As of June 28, 2010, the Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010 identified 10 campaign contests as either "Safe, Likely or Leans" Democratic, and 15 races as either "Safe, Likely or Leans" Republican.[3][4]
- The campaign-tracking organization ranked 12 of the 37 contests as "toss-ups" as of June 28.
- On January 22, 2010, the organization had ranked 11 races as toss-ups. Through the first half of 2010, CQ rankings showed a trend for races to move to the center in rankings, with both parties losing 'safe' and 'likely' seats as more races became categorized as 'toss-ups'.
- By the halfway point of the year, CQ still identified 12 races, or nearly one-third of the seats in play, as being toss-ups. The 12 states were evenly split between Democratic and Republican governors. By comparison, the Cook Political Report listed 18 seats - nearly half the elections - as being toss-ups at the end of June.
- CQ predicted GOP pick-ups in Wyoming and Kansas and favored the Republican candidate's chances in Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. CQ forecasted Democratic pick-ups in Connecticut, California, and Hawaii.
- Compared to the gubernatorial balance of power before the election, when Democrats occupied 27 seats and Republicans occupied 23, the post-November landscape was predicted to result in Republicans holding 26 of the 50 governorships to the Democrat's 24. There were no races in which CQ favored a minor-party candidate to win.
| Month | D-Safe | D-Likely | D-Leans | Tossup | R-Leans | R-Likely | R-Safe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| February | 3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| April | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| June | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| July | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
See also
External links
Footnotes
