Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 26 (July 30, 2018)
This week: Ocasio-Cortez takes her message on the road, and a look ahead at the New York primaries. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming elections: Aug. 2 (Tennessee), Aug. 7 (Missouri, Michigan, Washington, Kansas)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,176 Democrats, 1,018 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Have you noticed the irritating spate of articles in the mainstream press expressing alarm that the Democratic Party may be moving too far to the left? This has become a trope among commentators.
The lead piece in Sunday’s New York Times, for instance, was headlined, “Democrats Brace As Storm Brews to Their Left.” Right from the top, the progressive energy that is bringing new people into politics and challenging Republican incumbents is condemned as some kind of threat to ‘Democrats.’”
-Robert Kuttner, Huffington Post, July 23, 2018
“That mind-set unnerves Democratic veterans like Mr. Brewer, the former party chairman, in a state where they have long struggled to overcome a Republican machine aligned with the business community. Mr. Trump’s slim victory there exposed divisions between the national Democratic Party and many of the white union members on whose votes Michigan Democrats rely, underscoring Democrats’ tenuous position in 2018.
But within deep-blue precincts where Democratic insurgency appears strongest, talk of accommodating the center is in short supply.”
-Alexander Burns, New York Times, July 21, 2018
U.S. Congress
Ing takes a cue from Ocasio-Cortez in HI-01
State Rep. Kaniela Ing (D), the Justice Democrats-backed candidate for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District, took a page from New Yorker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D) playbook and hired the team behind her viral digital ad.
In the two-minute ad released Wednesday, Ing connects the story of how his ancestors overthrew exploitative plantation owners to his campaign. “If my grandparents didn’t stand up to the corporate establishment of their time, I would still be on the plantation,” he says.
Ing has lagged behind state Senate President Donna Kim (D) and Lt. Gov. Doug Chin (D) in fundraising and recent polls show him in single-digits.
The late entry of former U.S. Rep. Ed Case (D) made the already crowded field more competitive. Case represented the neighboring 2nd Congressional District for three terms.
KS-03 Democratic candidates air final ads
The top three Democratic candidates for Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District are making their final push before the primary.
Lawyer Sharice Davids released her first ad highlighting her journey “from a waitress to the White House,” following up on an earlier $387,000 ad buy from EMILY’s List affiliate Women Vote.
Teacher Tom Niermann's (D) latest ad highlighted his opposition to the Brownback tax cuts their effect on public education funding. Niermann is the primary’s fundraiser, raising nearly $700,000 through the second quarter.
Our Revolution-backed labor lawyer Brian Welder (D) raised $110,000 the week after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Ocasio-Cortez headlined his July 20 campaign rally.
Candidate survey reply of the week
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What qualities does the U.S. House of Representatives possess that make it unique as an institution?
"The U.S. House of Representatives broadly exhibits the character and qualities of this very large and diverse nation. As such, it is unruly and change occurs with great difficulty but due to its size and expansiveness, consensus, when achieved, can be representative, when it functions correctly. It is vulnerable to hyper-partisanship and bottlenecking as we can see. A representative is only one of 435 individuals, yet a principled stand by any one of these empowered individuals can make a difference. The problem of course is that so few take stands so in such an environment leadership and vision can be especially notable and these are more powerful than mere political wrangling."
-John Farmer de la Torre, candidate for Missouri's 7th Congressional District
Read all of John Farmer de la Torre's responses →
State executives
Billionaire Jeff Greene pumps $10.6 million into Florida gubernatorial bid
Billionaire real estate developer Jeff Greene has contributed $10.6 million to his campaign for Florida governor.
Citing a dissatisfaction with the other candidates, Greene entered the Democratic primary in early June, saying he would spend millions more on the general election and support down-ballot candidates as well if he wins the nomination.
Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine and businessman Chris King are also self-funding their campaigns. Levine has spent $11.2 million of his own money, much of it going into statewide television ads. King has put in $4.5 million.
Former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham has raised about $700,000 from family members as part of her $10 million total haul. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum lacks personal or family wealth, but billionaire donors George Soros and Tom Steyer back him, with Steyer pledging $1 million to his campaign.
Most polls have shown Graham and Levine leading, although some have also show Gillum, Greene, and King gaining ground. The primary is Aug. 28.
Sanders endorses El-Sayed for Michigan governor, but polls show Whitmer in lead
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) followed the lead of Our Revolution and endorsed Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan gubernatorial Democratic primary. El-Sayed supports a $15 minimum wage, single-payer health care, and marijuana legalization.
Polls show El-Sayed trailing both former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer and businessman Shri Thanedar. The most recent poll from EPIC-MRA and The Detroit Free Press showed Whitmer at 49 percent, Thanedar at 22, and El-Sayed with 19 percent. The margin of error was 3.1 percentage points.
EMILY’s List, the Michigan Education Association, and the AFL-CIO back Whitmer. She highlights her support for increasing infrastructure spending and her involvement in Medicaid expansion.
Like El-Sayed, Thanedar supports a $15 minimum wage and marijuana legalization. He contributed $6 million to his campaign.
Carpenters union targets Hawaii governor Ige in new Democratic primary ad
The Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters is out with a television ad criticizing Gov. David Ige’s (D) response to a false alert that a North Korean ballistic missile was headed toward the state in January.
The ad highlights Ige’s statement that he could not inform residents the alert was false because he did not remember his Twitter password.
The Carpenters union supports Ige’s opponent, U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D), in the Aug. 11 primary. The seat is rated “safe Democratic.”
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In the 43 states where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 31.8 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has decreased 1.7 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 24.5 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 38.2 percent.
New York City state senators face progressive challengers
Incumbent New York City Democratic state senators face a slate of progressive challengers in the Sept. 13 primaries.
Most of the senators are former members of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC), which helped Republicans stay in the majority after 2012.
The challengers say the IDC stalled progressive legislation on issues like affordable housing and immigration. The former IDC members say their caucus helped the Senate avoid dysfunction and excessive partisanship.
Here are the primaries to watch:
- In the Queens-based District 11, state Sen. Tony Avella faces former NYC Comptroller John Liu, a late entry into the race who was endorsed by NYC City Council speaker Corey Johnson.
- In the Queens-based District 13, Jessica Ramos, a former staffer for New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, is challenging state Sen. Jose Peralta. The local Democratic Party backs Peralta, but Ramos has endorsements from Johnson, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and gubernatorial candidate Cynthia Nixon.
- Attorney Zellnor Myrie is running against state Sen. Jesse Hamilton in Brooklyn-based District 20. Hamilton is an ally of Brooklyn Borough President and former state Sen. Eric Adams. Myrie was endorsed by Johnson and four state Assembly members.
- Former NYC Councilman Robert Jackson is challenging state Sen. Marisol Alcantara for the west Manhattan-based District 31. Jackson ran unsuccessfully for the seat in 2014 and 2016. He is backed by Johnson, Stringer, and U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler (D). Alcantara has the support of U.S. Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D).
- IDC founder Jeff Klein faces a challenge in the Bronx-based District 34 from Alessandra Biaggi, an ally of Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D). Klein and Biaggi have sparred over union endorsements. 32BJ Services Employees International Union (SEIU) endorsed Biaggi, but 1199 SEIU and Teamsters Local 831 are sticking with Klein.
The former IDC members’ re-election efforts suffered a setback after the state election law watchdog called on them to return contributions from a $2.5 million campaign account that the state Supreme Court ruled was illegal.
A spokeswoman for the former IDC members said the state agency incorrectly interpreted the court ruling.
Democratic socialist running for Brooklyn state Senate seat
Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) member Julia Salazar is running against Brooklyn state Sen. Martin Malave Dilan (D) in District 18.
Salazar says Dilan is not progressive on housing policy and is part of the local political machine. Dilan says Salazar is unfairly blaming him for rising rents in Brooklyn.
Salazar was endorsed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a DSA member who defeated U.S. Rep. Joe Crowley (D) in the Queens-based 14th Congressional District primary.
The state Senate districts held by Jeff Klein and Jose Peralta overlap with the 14th Congressional District.
Special guest analysis: Georgia primary turnout
Ben Ratner is a FairVote research intern. Rob Richie is FairVote’s president and CEO.
Tennessee’s primaries have unusual features for a southern primary: an Election Day on Thursday and no runoffs even when candidates fall short of a majority. As a result, the Republicans’ crowded gubernatorial primary may be won with less than 35 percent, and non-majority outcomes are likely in congressional primaries like open-seat races in the 2nd and 6th Districts.
Most southern states hold primary runoffs to help elect consensus nominees by majority vote, as in Georgia last week.
Republican turnout dropped 4 percent statewide even though gubernatorial runoffs sometimes yield higher turnout. For Democrats, congressional runoff turnout declined 36 percent and 52 percent, respectively—part of a longstanding pattern in federal primary runoffs. FairVote found turnout declined 39 percent, on average, in 183 of 190 regularly scheduled U.S. Senate and House primary runoffs from 1994 to 2016. That trend has continued this year, with turnout declining an average 44 percent in 25 of 26 congressional primary runoffs. Half of runoff winners earned fewer runoff votes than in the first round.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Bernie Sanders
The shockwaves from Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) 2016 presidential bid continue to spread in the 2018 primaries, as progressives challenge moderates for influence inside the Democratic Party.
Sanders has endorsed three Democratic primary candidates in recent weeks: Brent Welder in Kansas' 3rd District, James Thompson in Kansas' 4th, and Michigan gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed. Their primaries all occur Aug. 7.
Sanders joined New York's 14th District primary winner Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Kansas July 20 to campaign for Welder and Thompson. Welder, a labor lawyer, faces five Democratic challengers in Kansas' 3rd District primary, while attorney James Thompson faces one candidate in the 4th.
At a rally in Wichita, Sanders said a progressive can win in Kansas, and the midterms are a chance to tell Washington "that in a so-called conservative state, the people in Kansas demand a government that works for them, not just the Koch brothers." Thompson said, "If a centrist message would have worked, then Hillary Clinton would have won here in 2016." Sanders defeated Clinton in the Democratic primary caucus. Donald Trump won Kansas in the general election.
On July 25, Sanders endorsed physician Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sanders said saying El-Sayed "will fight for a government in Lansing that represents all the people, and not just wealthy special interests."
Sanders has also endorsed six House and two gubernatorial candidates in primaries. The two gubernatorial endorsees—Maryland's Ben Jealous and Georgia's Stacey Abrams—won. Sanders-backed House candidates have won two primaries and lost three.
What we're reading
- The House Tilts Toward the Democrats Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Inside the surprisingly difficult fight for reproductive rights in one of the bluest states Mother Jones
- Bernie Sanders Packs The House In Kansas City, Kansas, Rally For Brent Welder KCUR
- Can the Democratic Socialists Succeed Where Occupy Wall Street Failed? GQ
