Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 27 (August 6, 2018)
This week: Previewing the Aug. 7 and 11 primaries. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side and watch your inboxes for primary results Aug. 8. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: None
Passed filing deadlines: 51 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: Aug. 7 (Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington), Aug. 11 (Hawaii)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,180 Democrats, 1,026 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“It sure sounds like a lot of money, and conservatives hopped all over the figure on Monday morning. But there are a lot of ways to think about $32 trillion — and one might be that it’s actually kind of a bargain.
Mercatus is projecting a $32 trillion increase in federal spending, above current projected government expenditures, from 2022 to 2031.
In terms of overall health care spending in the United States over the same period, however, they are actually projecting a slight reduction.
There is the rub. The federal government is going to spend a lot more money on health care, but the country is going to spend about the same.”
- Dylan Scott, Vox, July 30, 2018
“So one lingering question is, would it be easier to control costs if everyone were covered by Medicare? And just as important, would the public embrace the steps taken to cut costs — price caps, for example, or longer delays for non-life-saving care, or tighter restrictions on the sorts of care and drugs that Medicare covered — or would they see the cure as worse than the disease?”
- Jon Healey, Los Angeles Times, July 31, 2018
Kansas
Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez backed candidate in six-way race in KS-03
Six Democrats are running in a primary to challenge Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) in 3rd Congressional District], a seat on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) target list.
The race’s top fundraiser, Brent Welder (D) has endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), both of whom recently campaigned for Welder.
Educator Tom Niermann (D) has backing from the Mainstream Coalition, a PAC that supports moderate candidates in Kansas elections. Lawyer and economic adviser Sharice Davids (D) has support from EMILY’s List and the LGBTQ Victory Fund.
Former nominee Jay Sidie and nonprofit executive Mike McCamon are also on the Aug. 7 ballot.
Hillary Clinton (D) won the 3rd by 1 percentage point in 2016.
Democrats aim to capitalize on Brownback tax cuts in Kansas’ gubernatorial race
Five Democrats are running for the nomination in the Kansas gubernatorial election. While only a quarter of Kansas voters are registered Democrats, some party leaders believe Democratic policies can win votes following two terms under Gov. Sam Brownback (R).
While the candidates largely agree on school finance and taxes—hotly debated issues throughout Brownback’s tenure—abortion is a prominent policy issue in the primary. State Secretary of Agriculture Joshua Svaty (D) has been criticized by two other candidates for voting in favor of restrictions on abortion during his time in the state House of Representatives. Svaty stated that he was representing his district at the time and would veto any new restrictions on abortion as governor.
State Sen. Laura Kelly (D) and Svaty both pointed to their successes in Republican-leaning state legislative districts as a necessary qualification for a statewide nominee in the GOP-dominated state.
Former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer cited a Fort Hays State University poll showing him leading the field in name recognition. Physician Arden Andersen and high school student Jack Bergeson are also running in the Democratic primary.
Michigan
Frontrunner Whitmer faces progressives in Michigan gubernatorial primary
Former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer faces Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and businessman Shri Thanedar in the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Whitmer has led in at least four polls and has endorsements from EMILY’s List, the United Auto Workers, and the American Federation of Teachers.
El-Sayed is running to Whitmer’s left, endorsing single-payer health care, a $15 minimum wage, and marijuana legalization. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Our Revolution endorsed him.
Thanedar’s platform is similar to El-Sayed’s and emphasizes his emigration from India and later business success. He has put at least $10 million of his own money into his campaign.
Four Democrats vie for nomination in MI-11
Tim Greimel, Suneel Gupta, Fayrouz Saad, and Haley Stevens are competing for the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s 11th District. The suburban Detroit district’s current incumbent, Rep. David Trott (R), is retiring. The seat is rated a “toss-up” in the general election.
Labor union endorsements have split between Greimel, the former state House minority leader, and Stevens, an Obama administration official who oversaw the recovery of the auto industry after the 2008 recession.
Gupta, a health care entrepreneur and brother of CNN correspondent Sanjay Gupta, leads the race in fundraising. He has the backing of 314 Action, an organization supporting candidates with science backgrounds.
Saad has endorsements from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Our Revolution, and Justice Democrats.
Jones, Wild, and Tlaib battle for MI-13 seat
There is a wide-open primary to replace John Conyers Jr. (D) in the safely Democratic Detroit House seat he held from 1964 until his resignation in 2017 over sexual harassment allegations.
Polls show Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, Westland Mayor Bill Wild, and former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib leading the primary.
Jones is backed by Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan and a number of community influencers who want the majority-minority district to stay in the hands of a black Detroiter.
Wild is the only white candidate and the only one from outside Detroit. An EPIC-MIA poll showed that much of his support comes from white suburban voters.
Tlaib is the top fundraiser, banking almost $900,000 to Wild’s $392,000 and Jones’ $167,000. Democracy for America and Our Revolution have endorsed Tlaib.
State Sen. Coleman Young II, state Sen. Ian Conyers--the elder Conyers’ great nephew-- and former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson are also running.
Washington
Three Democrats compete for a top-two election spot in WA-08
Polls show Dino Rossi (R) is the frontrunner in Washington’s 8th Congressional District. That means the three Democrats--Kim Schrier, Jason Rittereiser, and Shannon Hader--are competing for the second spot on the general election ballot.
Schrier is the top fundraiser and was endorsed by EMILY’S List and Planned Parenthood. Her campaign ads have highlighted her experience as a pediatrician and support for gun regulations.
Rittereiser, a former Kings County prosecutor, is running the furthest left by endorsing a single-payer health care system. He also has touted a poll from the House Majority PAC showing him with the best chance of defeating Rossi in November. Local unions and law enforcement groups endorsed him.
Hader emphasizes her experience with federal policy as a CDC official and has been endorsed by most local Democratic organizations in the district and The Seattle Times.
The current incumbent, U.S. Rep. David Reichert (R), is retiring. Election forecasters rate the general election as a “toss-up.”
Smith faces challenge from the left in WA-09
Democrats Adam Smith, and Sarah Smith, and Republican Doug Basler are competing in the top-two primary for Washington’s safely Democratic 9th Congressional District. Redistricting in 20011 made the 9th Washington’s only minority-majority district. Some media outlets have speculated this may give progressives an opportunity to win the seat.
Sarah Smith is challenging 11-term incumbent Rep. Adam Smith from the left, running with endorsements from Our Revolution, Justice Democrats, and Democratic Socialists of America’s Olympia chapter. She was an original member of the Brand New Congress organization along with New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Rep. Smith is the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee. Sarah Smith has made his 2003 vote for the Iraq War a central campaign issue.
Both of Washington’s Senators and a long list of Democratic officials back Rep. Smith, who also leads in fundraising.
Basler faced Adam Smith in 2014 and 2016 general elections, earning just under 30 percent of the vote in each race.
Democratic incumbent who caucuses with Republicans faces rematch in WA State Senate District 35
Incumbent Tim Sheldon (D) faces a rematch against educator Irene Bowling (D) in the top-two primary state Senate District 35. Sheldon defeated Bowling 54 percent to 46 percent in 2014.
Sheldon has held the seat for two decades and caucuses with Senate Republicans. Several Democratic organizations, including the 35th Legislative District Democrats, have contributed to Bowling's campaign.
"Democrats don’t like that I don’t fit the urban Democrat mold,” Sheldon said. “I attract conservatives, Independent voters, Republicans. I have a rural district."
Although the candidates raised nearly $1.8 million in 2014, Bowling said she planned to run a leaner campaign this time with a focus on community outreach and her platform. She wants to promote economic development and make healthcare more accessible.
Three Republicans are also running: Air Force veteran Marco Brown, school board director John Martin, and George Sevier.
Hawaii
Incumbent Ige faces primary challenge from Hanabusa
Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) and four other candidates are challenging Gov. David Ige (D) in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Hanabusa is running as a change candidate. Her backers include the Hawaii Government Employees Association, the state's largest union, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D), and Ige's former lieutenant governor, Shan Tsutsui (D). Former Gov. Ben Cayetano (D), who backed Ige in 2014, has also endorsed Hanabusa.
Ige is running on his record, including an initiative expanding access to air conditioning in public schools. His backers include the Hawaii State Teachers Association. Hawaii County Mayor Harry Kim (D) praised Ige’s handling of the Kilauea volcano eruption in a campaign ad released last week.
Ernest Caravalho, Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a, Richard Kim, and Van Tanabe are also on the primary ballot.
Ige’s 2014 defeat of Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) is the only time in state history an incumbent governor has lost a primary.
Seven candidates fight for open seat in safe Democratic HI-01
State Senate President Donna Kim (D) and Lt. Gov. Doug Chin (D) entered the open Democratic primary for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District as frontrunners, topping fundraising through the second quarter of 2018. Kim has served nearly two decades in the state Senate, while Chin received national press while state attorney general for his court challenge to President Donald Trump's executive order on immigration in 2017.
But on June 5, the final day for candidates to file for the primary, former U.S. Rep. Ed Case (D), entered the race and upended its dynamics. Case represented the neighboring 2nd Congressional District for three terms. Two polls released in July show him leading the 1st District contest.
Also running are Justice Democrats-backed state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D), Rep. Beth Fukumoto (D), Ernie Martin (D), and Sam Puletasi (D).
NEA endorses challenger in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District
Two challengers are running against popular incumbent Tulsi Gabbard (D) in 2nd Congressional District primary. The National Education Association is backing Sherry Alu Campagna, a rare endorsement of a challenger against a Democratic incumbent by the organization.
The NEA’s state affiliate president said Gabbard’s criticism of regime change in Syria was the reason for the group’s endorsement of Campagna.
Gabbard has endorsements from Our Revolution, End Citizens United, and more than 20 labor unions.
Anthony Tony Austin (D), who serves as District Council Representative and Delegate for Oahu, is also running.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What qualities do you possess that would make you a successful officeholder?
“As a family physician, occupational medicine physician, Colonel and flight surgeon in the USAF Reserves, former vo-ag teacher, sustainable agriculture teacher/consultant/author I possess the experience and competence in the key issues of our time: health care, education, environment/sustainable food production and leadership.”
- Arden Andersen, candidate for governor of Kansas
Read all of Arden Andersen's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Michigan AFL-CIO
Michigan, sometimes called "the heart of organized labor," has the eighth highest percentage of union members in the nation. The Michigan AFL-CIO has endorsed 103 candidates this year, including one for U.S. Senate, one for governor, 12 for U.S. House, 19 for state Senate, and 71 for state House.
Among its U.S. House endorsees are Tim Greimel (D) and Brenda Jones (D), who are competing in battleground primaries for the 11th and 13th districts, respectively. The primaries are Aug. 7.
Greimel faces four other candidates in the 11th District primary. He has served in the Michigan House of Representatives since 2012 and is backed by several unions, some affiliated with the state AFL-CIO. He has touted his role in passing legislation to increase the state's minimum wage to $9.25 an hour as House minority leader. His campaign site says, "In order to grow the middle class, we must protect employees’ rights to join a union and collectively bargain for better wages and benefits."
Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones is running in Democratic primaries for both the special election to complete John Conyers Jr.'s term ending in January 2019 and the regular election to hold the seat until January 2021. A former president of the Communication Workers of America (CWA) Local 4004, Jones is backed by several individual unions in addition to the Michigan AFL-CIO, including the United Automobile Workers and CWA District 4. Jones has served on the Detroit City Council since 2004 and as its president since 2014.
The Michigan AFL-CIO represents over 1 million working and retired members. It has 40 affiliated unions, including the United Automobile Workers, which was founded in Detroit in 1935.
What we're reading
- Democratic rifts rattle Massachusetts primary Politico
- The Daily 202: Tom Steyer rips ‘Democratic establishment’ for resisting Trump impeachment Washington Post
- Kirsten Gillibrand Pays The Price For Speaking Out Against Al Franken Huffington Post
- Democratic challenger hopes to repeat Ocasio-Cortez’s success in Washington state Seattle Times
