Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 25 (July 23, 2018)

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Issue No. 25

This week: Previewing Georgia’s congressional runoffs, Party endorsement scrambles the California Senate race, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joins Bernie Sanders on the campaign trail. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

Upcoming filing deadlines: 0
Passed filing deadlines: 51 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: July 24 (GA runoffs), August 2 (Tennessee)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,181 Democrats, 1,025 Republicans

Democratic pundits on the news

Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.

“Last week in Oakland, Feinstein and her campaign tried to block the California Democratic Party from endorsing Feinstein’s opponent, former state Senate leader Kevin de León. It was pathetic and unseemly.

The effort failed and, while some will equate the entire episode with a California Democratic Party that is ‘out of touch’ with voters, maybe those who would vote for Feinstein are out of touch as well — or ascribing power to her that she does not possess.”

- Marcos Bretón, Sacramento Bee, July 1, 2018

“Last weekend, the state Democratic Party’s 'executive committee' voted to endorse state Sen. Kevin de León’s longshot bid to unseat Dianne Feinstein, California’s U.S. senator for more than a quarter-century.

The action says more about the party than it does about Feinstein. It tells us that the party’s political junkie activists are so obsessed with “resistance” to Donald Trump that they are willing to discard one of the Senate’s most senior and influential members.”

- Dan Walters, The Mercury News, July 18, 2018

Preview

On July 24, Georgia Democrats will select nominees in two suburban Georgia congressional districts they hope to win from Republicans in November.

Abel and McBath face off for second chance to flip GA-06

One year after Karen Handel (R) defeated Jon Ossoff (D) in a nationally-watched special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, Democrats are choosing their next candidate to try to flip the northern Atlanta seat.

Lucy McBath, an advocate for stricter gun laws, faces businessman Kevin Abel in the runoff.

Abel says he will appeal to centrist and Republican voters in the general election, particularly by promising to oppose Nancy Pelosi as House Democratic leader.

McBath says she is unsure if she would support Pelosi and has criticized Abel for his previous support for a centrist third party. U.S. Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) and U.S. Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (R-N.Y.) have endorsed her.

Abel has raised $820,000 to McBath’s $315,000. However, Everytown for Gun Safety, a Michael Bloomberg-backed group where McBath served as a spokeswoman, has spent more than $1 million supporting her. McBath’s son, Jordan Davis, was shot and killed in 2012.

Bourdeaux and Kim compete for nomination in Gwinnett County-based GA-07

Georgia State University professor Carolyn Bourdeaux and businessman David Kim are competing to face U.S. Rep. Rob Woodall (R) in his Gwinnett County-based seat in November.

Kim said he will oppose Nancy Pelosi as House Democratic leader. Bourdeaux is non-committal on Pelosi, but said Democratic leadership “could use some new blood and new ideas.”

Kim leads the race in fundraising after loaning his campaign $740,000, but Bourdeaux has more individual contributions. She has endorsements from EMILY’s List, former Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young, and U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson.

Donald Trump won the district 51-45 percent in 2016. But in Gwinnett, a majority-minority county just outside of Atlanta, was one of the country’s six Reverse Pivot Counties. These counties voted for Clinton after voting for Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

U.S. Congress

California Democrats endorse De León over incumbent Feinstein

The California Democratic Party endorsed state Sen. Kevin de León (D) over incumbent Dianne Feinstein (D) in the state’s U.S. Senate race, giving him access to party fundraising, volunteers, and other organizational support.

According to the Sacramento Bee, De León spent months reaching out to more than 300 members of the party’s executive board to earn their endorsement, while Feinstein called for neutrality in the race.

De León has received major endorsements from the Service Employees International Union of California, California Nurses Association, and California Labor Federation AFL-CIO. He has struggled to match Feinstein in fundraising. Reports from mid-May showed De León with nearly $700,000 in cash on hand to Feinstein’s $7 million.

Feinstein has support from national and state party figures, including former President Barack Obama (D), former Vice President Joe Biden (D), House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and Gov. Jerry Brown (D).

Feinstein also won De León’s legislative district in the primary, signalling he still needs to increase his name recognition across the state.

Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders hit campaign trail for progressive candidates

Democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is hitting the campaign trail with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) after her surprise victory over longtime incumbent Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) in New York's 14th Congressional District Democratic primary.

They campaigned for former Sanders presidential delegate Brent Welder (D) in Kansas’ 3rd and James Thompson (D) in Kansas’ 4th last week and are scheduled to visit Michigan at the end of July for gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D).

“[Welder and Thompson] have committed the organizing power to show that if Democrats run on a clear, committed platform for working class Americans, while rejecting dark money, we can win,” she said in a statement.

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) is not convinced Ocasio-Cortez’s platform will work outside of New York. “I don’t think that you can go too far to the left and still win the Midwest,” she said.

Special guest analysis: On and on, Wisconsin

Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share an update on Wisconsin primaries. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.

The race for governor of Wisconsin goes on and on in volatility, but incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker has seen that his recent favorability poll, while still under 50 percent, has turned net favorable. The governor remains controversial, but he has a history of political survival and state-level conservative policy innovation, outflanking his Democratic and liberal opponents. With the Aug. 14 Wisconsin primaries looming, the Democrats have 10 candidates vying for their party nomination, and none of them is clearly way out in front. The Democratic winner will then have only 10 weeks to consolidate liberal and independent voters behind his or her candidacy against the better known Walker.

In the other major Wisconsin statewide race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin remains the favorite despite her own favorability polls being net negative. A strong liberal vote in the U.S. Senate, Senator Baldwin nevertheless broke with national Democratic leaders demanding elimination of ICE and federal border control, calling instead for more oversight of the organization—a stance intended to boost her image as bipartisan. Her re-election is also enhanced by the absence yet of a Republican opponent. That will be decided in the Aug. 14 GOP primary between party-endorsed state Sen. Leah Vukmir and self proclaimed “outsider” conservative Kevin Nicholson. As in the challenge to Democrats in the Wisconsin governor’s race, the Republicans, following the primary, have only 10 weeks to unite their supporters against the well-known Baldwin.

Candidate survey reply of the week

Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.

What do you perceive to be the United States’ greatest challenges as a nation over the next decade?

“Racism and discrimination, student loan debt versus cost of living, conversion to green energy and technology from fossil fuels. Infrastructure demands. Universal health care. Automation and artificial intelligence (A.I.) technology.” - Joshua Shipp, candidate for Missouri’s 1st Congressional District

Read all of Joshua Shipp's responses →

State executives

Cuomo maintains polling and fundraising lead

Campaign finance reports released Monday show New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) maintaining a fundraising lead over challenger Cynthia Nixon (D).

Cuomo has raised more than $6 million since January and enters the campaign's final months with $31.1 million cash on hand. Nixon has raised $1.6 million since the beginning of the year and reported $660,000 cash on hand.

A Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters released Wednesday showed Cuomo leading Nixon 59 to 23 percent. Fifteen percent of voters were undecided.

Cuomo faces Nixon and Greg Waltman (D) in a Sept. 13 primary, which is open to registered Democrats only.

Ocasio-Cortez hits the campaign trail in support of El-Sayed

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), who unseated fourth-ranking House Democrat Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.) in a June 26 primary, announced Monday she would appear at four campaign events for Michigan gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D).

Democracy for America and Our Revolution have endorsed both El-Sayed and Ocasio-Cortez, a self-described democratic socialist.

El-Sayed faces former state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and businessman Shri Thanedar (D) in the Aug. 7 primary, which is open to all registered voters.

Roys leads Wisconsin candidates in cash on hand

Campaign finance reports released Tuesday show former state Sen. Kelda Roys (D) leading the field of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in cash on hand as the campaign enters its final weeks.

Roys has $668,000 on hand, including $354,000 of her own money. Former Wisconsin Democratic Party chairman Matt Flynn (D) has $403,000, while former state Superintendent of Schools Tony Evers (D), who has led in most public polls, reported $307,000.

Roys, Flynn, and Evers are among eight Democrats running in the Aug. 14 primary, which is open to all registered voters.

Legislatures

Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.

Takeaways: In the 43 states where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 31.8 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has decreased 1.7 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 24.5 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 38.2 percent.

State party opposes incumbents in Rhode Island Democratic primaries

Rhode Island legislators supportive of abortion access are facing challengers backed by the state Democratic Party and its local affiliates in the Sept. 12 primaries.

The state party endorsed challengers to state Rep. Moira Walsh and state Sen. Jeanne Calkin, while a local Democratic committee endorsed a challenger to state Rep. Marcia Ranglin-Vassell, who defeated state House Majority Leader John DeSimone in the 2016 primaries.

The state party withdrew its endorsement of Walsh’s opponent after he received media attention for supporting Donald Trump, but declined to back her.

Along with other female legislators, Walsh, Calkin, and Ranglin-Vassell introduced abortion access legislation in the 2018 legislative session, but it was never heard in committee. The state legislative leaders, including state party boss and House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello (D), oppose abortion access.

At a May 2018 meeting of the state party’s platform committee, Democrats argued over whether backing abortion access would cause conservative Democrats to join the Republican Party.

An account from UpRise RI said the meeting "highlighted the divisions between conservative and progressive Democrats that exist beneath the RIDP’s 'big tent.'"

Longtime Alabama incumbent loses in runoff

Kirk Hatcher (D) defeated Alabama state Rep. Alvin Holmes (D) in a primary runoff Tuesday.

Holmes was first elected to the state House in 1974 and was its longest serving member. He was not surprised by the loss and had a feeling his constituents wanted a change.

Holmes worked to increase black employment in state government positions and said he would continue to be an activist. “I’m still going to fight for black people to get equal rights and equal justice,” Holmes said.

Power Players

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

Everytown for Gun Safety has spent over $1 million in support of Lucy McBath, who faces Kevin Abel in the July 24 Democratic primary runoff for Georgia's 6th Congressional District. McBath was a spokeswoman for Everytown after her son was shot and killed in 2012.

Campaign filings in advance of the May 22 primary showed Everytown spent $832,000 supporting McBath, while her own campaign spent just $37,355.

In the same time period, Abel's campaign spent $442,591 and Middle Class Values PAC spent $82,000 supporting him. Since the primary, Everytown has spent an additional $306,348 on McBath’s behalf.

Everytown says "is a movement of Americans working together to end gun violence and build safer communities." It advocates for expanding background checks, prohibiting domestic abusers from possessing guns, educating parents about safe storage, and enacting more federal gun trafficking laws.

What we're reading

• Democratic Voters Want To See A Fight Against Brett Kavanaugh. Democratic Officials Worry There’s Not Much To Do Buzzfeed
• The Next Big Democratic Primary Showdown NPR
• In rebuke of Dianne Feinstein, Kevin de León wins endorsement of California Democrats in Senate race LA Times
• Rhode Island Progressive Democrats Threaten to Topple Party Leadership PJ Media