Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 24 (July 16, 2018)

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Issue No. 24

This week: recapping top stories from 4+ months of primary elections. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

Upcoming filing deadlines: July 20 (Louisiana)
Passed filing deadlines: 50 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: July 17 (AL runoffs), July 24 (GA runoffs)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,192 Democrats, 1,028 Republicans

Democratic pundits on the news

Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.

“The past month has been a painful reminder that Americans are not merely politically divided; we are engaged in a moral battle that will define the country. Democrats would be wise to embrace the passion that progressive insurgents are bringing to the fight and the universal principle that working people’s voices need to be heard. As Ocasio-Cortez put it, ‘There’s nothing radical about moral clarity in 2018.’”

- Katrina vanden Heuvel, The Washington Post, July 11, 2018

“In the Senate, which decides Supreme Court nominations, three centrist candidates in states that only moderate Democrats can win – Jacky Rosen in Nevada, Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona, and Phil Bredesen in [Tennessee] – represent the party’s best chance of picking up seats. Clearly, there are critical locales where the Democrats need such nominees. The question becomes whether the Sanders crusade is less about curbing Trump than about driving the party leftward — and whether Sanders loyalists will turn out for moderates in November.”

- Richard North Patterson, The Boston Globe, July 11, 2018

Top primaries of the year

The five primary races below are on our list of top Democratic primaries this year. We're recapping the best stories so far, and identifying themes and trends along the way.

1. Ocasio-Cortez defeats Democratic House Caucus Chair Crowley

First-time office-seeker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) defeated longtime incumbent Rep. Joseph Crowley (D), who last faced a primary challenge in 2004, in New York's 14th District Democratic primary. Crowley, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, had a 22-to-1 fundraising lead over newcomer Ocasio-Cortez at the end of March.

Incumbents defeated in 2018 primaries: Crowley is one of four congressional or state executive incumbents to lose a primary so far. The others:

• Mike Stack (D), Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania
• Rep. Robert Pittenger (R), North Carolina's 9th
• Rep. Mark Sanford (R), South Carolina's 1st
• Eighty-five state legislators, including 37 Democrats and 48 Republicans.

2. DCCC-backed candidate defeats former representative in Nebraska

A clash between moderates and progressives in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary May 15 saw Kara Eastman defeating the district’s former congressman, Brad Ashford.

Ashford served a single term before losing his re-election bid to current incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R) and had the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). The Progressive Change Campaign Committee supported Eastman.

Races with DCCC involvement: We've tracked results in contested primaries where the DCCC backed a candidate. Our tally of the results so far:

• Candidates backed by DCCC: 20 primary wins
• Candidates not backed by DCCC: 2 primary wins.

3. Lipinski overcomes challenge from Newman

Incumbent Rep. Daniel Lipinski won the Democratic primary for Illinois' 3rd District against political newcomer Marie Newman, a race the press described as a conflict between moderate Democrats and the party’s more progressive wing. The candidates raised more than $1 million and progressive endorsements were pitted against those from labor unions and longtime Illinois politicians. NARAL Pro-Choice America and the Human Rights Campaign supported Newman. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D), state party chairman Michael Madigan (D), and the centrist group No Labels backed Lipinski.

Another race with No Labels involvement: No Labels also supported John Morganelli’s unsuccessful bid in Pennsylvania’s 7th District Democratic primary, running negative ads against his opponents Susan Wild and Greg Edwards.

4. McGrath beats Gray in KY-6 primary after both keep distance from Nancy Pelosi

Former combat pilot Amy McGrath defeated Lexington Mayor Jim Gray and four other candidates in Kentucky’s 6th District Democratic primary. McGrath faces incumbent Andy Barr (R) in November.

McGrath entered the race early and established national fame (and a fundraising network) after releasing a campaign video highlighting her military background. Despite this, the DCCC encouraged Gray to run due to his popularity in the district and ability to self-fund. McGrath used the DCCC involvement to portray herself as an outsider not beholden to the party. After she won, the DCCC endorsed her.

During the primary, Gray said he would oppose Nancy Pelosi as House Democratic leader, while McGrath said she was unsure. Candidates challenging Pelosi: At least 24 Democratic candidates oppose Pelosi, including 18 backed by the DCCC, including:

• Clarke Tucker (DCCC endorsed candidate running for Arkansas’ 2nd)
• Gil Cisneros (DCCC endorsed candidate running for California’s 39th)
• Dan McCready (DCCC endorsed candidate running for North Carolina’s 9th)
• Jeff Van Drew (DCCC endorsed candidate running for New Jersey’s 2nd)
• Danny O’Connor (Running for Ohio’s 12th)

5. Wexton wins in VA-10, record number of women run for Congress and most are Democrats

State Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) defeated former senior State Department official Alison Kiehl Friedman (D), Army veteran Daniel Helmer (D), and three other Democrats in Virginia's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary June 12.

Altogether, women won six of Virginia’s 11 U.S. House Democratic primaries and conventions.

The only female member of the state’s current congressional delegation, incumbent Barbara Comstock (R), faces Wexton in the general election.

Women in 2018 primaries: The number of women who were certified on the ballot or won at conventions has doubled since 2016, and women comprise 23 percent of non-incumbents running for Congress.

For spectators who believe a pink wave could lead to a blue wave: Nearly 80 percent of the women running are Democrats.

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More top stories

Democrats avoid top-two shutouts in California congressional primaries

California’s top-two primary system almost hobbled Democratic hopes of retaking the House. But the party avoid shutouts in districts they believe are ripe for flipping.

Democrats faced the possibility of a top-two shutout, in which both primary winners are from the same party, in five of the seven Republican-held U.S. House districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016. None ultimately resulted in a shutout.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee selected Democratic candidates from among the primary fields to support, such as Harley Rouda (D) in the 48th District, while opposing Republican candidates who were seen as likely winners, such as Shawn Nelson (R) and Bob Huff (R) in the 39th District. The candidates also adopted DCCC strategies to reduce the chance of a shutout. In the 48th District, three Democratic candidates suspended their campaigns ahead of the primary to consolidate the vote.

State legislative competitiveness

5,385 state legislative seats are up for election across 43 states where filing deadlines have passed. Key numbers from Ballotpedia's competitiveness study:

• 440 incumbent Democratic legislators seeking re-election (21.8 percent) will face or have faced a primary challenger this year.
• 1,129 seats—21 percent of all seats up for election—will automatically go to the Democratic Party since no Republican candidates filed. The three states with the highest proportion of seats guaranteed to Democrats are:
  • Massachusetts (64.0 percent)
  • Hawaii (62.5 percent)
  • Rhode Island (56.6 percent)
• 14 statehouse chambers where at least one Democratic candidate filed in every district:
  • The Senate and House in Michigan and Colorado
  • The Senate in Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Oregon
  • The House in Minnesota and South Dakota.
• 368 incumbent Democrats have announced their retirement, accounting for 35.5 percent of all legislative retirements this year.

Which 10 Democratic House campaigns have reported the most contributions?

• David Trone (Maryland’s 6th): $10.7 million
• Randy Bryce (Wisconsin’s 1st): $4.8 million
• Paul Kerr (California’s 49th): $4.5 million (defeated in his primary)
• Josh Gottheimer (New Jersey’s 5th): $4.4 million
• Adam Schiff (California’s 28th): $4.2 million
• Gil Cisneros (California’s 39th): $4.1 million
• Raja Krishnamoorthi (Illinois’ 8th): $3.6 million
• Joe Crowley (New York’s 14th): $3.4 million (defeated in his primary)
• Nancy Pelosi (California’s 12th): $3.1 million
• Andy Thorburn (California’s 39th): $3.0 million (defeated in his primary)

Previewing 2019 Democratic House freshmen

The Cook Political Report examined the potential freshman class of House Democrats and found many are likely to be women and/or racial minorities. Ocasio-Cortez is one of 13 Democratic primary winners in districts rated "likely” or “solid” Democrat by multiple outside race raters. The others are Joe Neguse (CO-2), Jesus "Chuy" Garcia (IL-4), David Trone (MD-6), Jeff Van Drew (NJ-2), Steven Horsford (NV-4), Debra Haaland (NM-1), Joseph Morelle (NY-25), Veronica Escobar (TX-16), Sylvia Garcia (TX-29), Madeleine Dean (PA-4), Mary Gay Scanlon (PA-5), and Chrissy Houlahan (PA-6).

Special guest analysis: FairVote on plurality primary winners

Rob Richie is the President and CEO, and Ben Ratner is a summer research intern, with FairVote. We invited them to share an update on plurality winners in the 2018 primary season.

Halfway through the 2018 primaries, a pattern has emerged: candidates are winning without majority support. The reason? Single-choice plurality elections, in which the candidate with the most votes wins even without earning a majority. Such outcomes are commonplace in primaries outside of Maine (where ranked choice voting avoided two plurality outcomes) and seven states with majority runoffs.

As of July 16, 70 candidates have won without a majority in primaries for Congress and governor. These winners advanced despite most voters in their primary backing other candidates. In Nevada’s 2nd District, Democrat Clint Koble won his House primary with 26 percent of the vote. In New York’s 19th, Antonio Delgado won with 22 percent of the vote.

This trend has larger implications. Of Democratic congressional primary winners with less than 50 percent, four are in “safe” districts where FairVote projects them to win in November in its Monopoly Politics report. These nominees effectively have won their district without earning a majority of their party vote.

Candidate	State-District	Winning % of Vote
Carol Miller	WV-3	23.80%
John Joyce	PA-13	21.90%
Russ Fulcher	ID-1	43.10%
Jim Baird	IN-4	36.60%
Dusty Johnson	SD-AL	46.80%
Troy Balderson	OH-12	28.70%
Yvette Herrell	NM-2	49.00%

Candidate survey reply of the week

Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.

What is your favorite thing in your home or apartment? Why?

“The notes my six year old son leaves me on the fridge. He is just learning to spell. Recently he wrote "No mor Ise Creem Tonite" when he thought I was eating too much chocolate ice cream.”

- Carolyn Bourdeaux, candidate for Georgia's 7th Congressional District

Read all of Carolyn Bourdeaux's responses →

Power Players

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

Democratic Socialists of America

The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) backed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York’s 14th District primary, joining other progressive organizations such as Justice Democrats and Brand New Congress in backing the political newcomer.

But the DSA was making waves before Ocasio-Cortez’s win, gaining national attention when New York gubernatorial candidate Cynthia Nixon told Politico she considers herself a democratic socialist. Nixon’s spokeswoman said the campaign had been in touch with the DSA, which also backed state Senate candidate Julia Salazar, whom Nixon has endorsed.

Nixon has been backed by progressive organizations like the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Our Revolution and is one of two challengers to incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Although New York’s congressional primaries have already been held, the governor’s race is Sept. 13th.

According to its website, the DSA “fights for reforms today that will weaken the power of corporations and increase the power of working people.” They support reforms that “decrease the influence of money in politics, empower ordinary people in workplaces and the economy, [and] restructure gender and cultural relationships to be more equitable.”

What we're reading

• Progressives versus the establishment: What’s the score, and does it matter? The Brookings Institute
• In Wisconsin, a Democratic star finds himself in a primary brawl Washington Post
• MSNBC Does Not Merely Permit Fabrications Against Democratic Party Critics. It Encourages and Rewards Them. The Intercept
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s First Major Post-Election Dispute Hints At Future Battles Huffington Post