Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 23 (June 25, 2018)
This week: Previewing the June 26 primaries. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: June 27 (Rhode Island)
Passed filing deadlines: 48
Upcoming elections: June 26 (Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, Utah)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,178 Democrats, 996 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“The scandal of repeated ethical misdeeds in agencies throughout the Trump administration gets worse every day. The epic scandal and shame of the abuse of immigrant children has created another huge wellspring of public opposition that continues to surge every day.
The core strategy of President Trump is obsession with rousing his base that also has the effect of rousing the far larger number of voters who oppose his actions. The core strategy of congressional Republicans is to march in lockstep with Trump and tie their political fate to his unpopularity.”
- Brent Budowsky, The Hill, June 22, 2018
“...Surveys by Quinnipiac and CNN also found Americans opposed his child separation policy by margins of 2 to 1.
There is also fresh evidence that Trump is firing up both political parties in the run-up to the midterm voting. The Pew Research Center found that 55 percent of voters who intend to vote for Democrats in November are more enthusiastic than usual.
But the survey also found that 50 percent of those who intend to support Republicans are also more enthusiastic, setting the stage for what could be a monumental get out the vote struggle for both parties come November.”
- Jim Malone, Voice of America, June 22, 2018
Colorado
Kennedy and Polis headline Democratic gubernatorial primary
Four Democrats are on the June 26 gubernatorial primary ballot, but most attention has focused on two -- former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy (D), and Rep. Jared Polis (D).
EMILY's List, the Communications Workers of America, and the Colorado Education Association are backing Kennedy, who has promised to increase funding for public schools.
Polis has led in most polls and has endorsements from NORML PAC, the Sierra Club, and Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.). Polis is also campaigning on education, proposing free preschool and kindergarten.
State Sen. Michael Johnston (D) has endorsements from former Sen. Gary Hart (D) and former Gov. Dick Lamm (D). Johnston supports providing two years of tuition-free community college to state residents and establishing a civilian work corps.
Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne (D), a former insurance executive, highlights her private sector experience and her two years serving alongside term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (D).
DeGette faces a rare challenge in Colorado’s 1st Congressional District
Colorado's 1st Congressional District Rep. Diana DeGette (D) faces just her third primary challenger in the last two decades.
Attorney and children’s book author Saira Rao (D) says she is an alternative to what she calls the corporate establishment wing of the Democratic Party. Rao has criticized DeGette for receiving contributions from corporate PACs, and has an endorsement from the Justice Democrats PAC.
DeGette is running on her record and has endorsements from the Colorado AFL-CIO and NARAL Pro-Choice America.
DCCC support key in Democratic primary for potentially vulnerable GOP seat
The 6th District Democratic primary is another showdown between a candidate supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and one running with progressive support.
Early in the race, the DCCC named attorney and former Army Ranger Jason Crow (D) to its "Red to Blue" program. While not an endorsement, it gave Crow access to DCCC strategic guidance, staff resources, and candidate training.
Entrepreneur and academic Levi Tillemann (D) has endorsements from state Sen. Rhonda Fields (D) and the Progressive Democrats of America. Tillemann released a tape-recorded conversation with House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer in which he said the DCCC should stay out of primaries. Hoyer urged Tillemann to drop out, saying the decision to back Crow had been made a long time ago. Hillary Clinton carried the District (D) by nine percentage points in 2016.
Safe Democratic state legislative seats in Denver feature competitive primaries
Democrats have five competitive primaries in safe Democratic state legislative seats in and around Denver.
In four of the races, the incumbents were term-limited but Democratic lawmakers split over possible replacements.
In the fifth seat, state Rep. Paul Rosenthal failed to make the ballot after being accused of sexual harassment. Two women are vying to replace him. Emily Sirota is aligned with the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party, while Democratic legislators back Ashley Wheeland.
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Maryland
Jealous-Baker divide in Maryland gubernatorial primary mirrors Sanders-Clinton
National observers are comparing Maryland's Democratic gubernatorial primary to the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, with Bernie Sanders-endorsed former NAACP President Ben Jealous (D) facing Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker III (D).
Jealous supports a $15 minimum wage and expanding Medicare to cover all state residents. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and the Working Families Party of Maryland are also backing Jealous.
Baker supports increased firearms regulations, gender equity measures, and increased spending in the Baltimore region. Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and former Gov. Parris Glendening (D) have endorsed him.
The race was disrupted when its top fundraiser, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz (D), died May 10. Kamenetz's running mate Valerie Ervin (D) attempted to take his place but could not access Kamenetz’s campaign funds and lost a lawsuit seeking to have new ballots printed including her name. Ervin withdrew from the race and endorsed Baker.
Also running are attorney Jim Shea (D), who has raised more than $2 million, and state Sen. Rich Madaleno (D), who is backed by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D) and the Victory Fund.
Self-funder and two state legislators face-off in MD-6
Eight Democrats are seeking the 6th Congressional District nomination for retiring Rep. John Delaney's (D) western Maryland seat. But the focus has been on Total Wine co-founder David Trone (D).
Trone contributed a record $12.7 million to his own, unsuccessful, U.S. House campaign in a neighboring district in 2016. So far this cycle, he has contributed $10.2 million to his campaign. Trone has endorsements from Rep. Anthony Brown (D) and gubernatorial candidate Rushern Baker (D) -- who have received a combined $75,000 from the Trone family since 2015.
State Del. Aruna Miller (D) is running on her legislative record, including a bill she sponsored which implemented a GPS tracking system to enforce domestic protection orders. Miller’s endorsements include the Sierra Club, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), and Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett (D).
State Sen. Roger Manno (D) supports universal Medicaid coverage and has run an advertisement discussing the death of his uninsured father. Among Manno's endorsements are the Working Families Party of Maryland, the United Auto Workers, and the Service Employees International Union.
New York
Five Democrats seeking nomination in NY-01
Five Democrats are looking to take on U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) in New York’s 1st Congressional District, a seat some observers believe is a Democratic pickup opportunity.
The candidates generally agree on the issues, but a split has emerged over Medicare for All. Former Suffolk legislator Kate Browning and scientist Elaine DiMasi have not committed to the idea, while businessman Perry Gershon, former Suffolk legislator Vivian Viloria-Fisher, and former New York Council staffer David Pechefsky support it.
Viloria-Fisher and Pechefsky have cast themselves as the most progressive candidates.
Gershon put $600,000 of his own money into the campaign and says internal polling shows the race is between himself and Browning.
Potential Pelosi successor Crowley (D) faces challenge from left in NY-14
U.S. Rep. Joe Crowley (D) faces his first primary challenge since 2004 from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who touts her support for progressive policies and casts Crowley as beholden to corporations.
Crowley has a 22-to-1 fundraising advantage and progressive groups have split their endorsements. NARAL and Planned Parenthood back Crowley, while MoveOn.org and groups affiliated with Bernie Sanders back Ocasio-Cortez.
Crowley has been mentioned as a potential successor to House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi.
Democrats line up to flip NY-19
Seven Democratic candidates are running in the primary for New York's 19th Congressional District, a seat Democrats think they can flip in November.
Attorney Antonio Delgado (D), entrepreneur Brian Flynn (D), and businessman Pat Ryan (D) each raised more than $1 million, but Delgado has the most cash on hand, with $1.2 million. Delgado also has endorsements from the Latino Victory Fund and Congressional Black Caucus. Flynn has support from two labor unions and Vote Pro Choice. VoteVets and the With Honor Fund back Ryan. Democrats last won the seat in 2010. Barack Obama (D) carried the 19th District in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, but Donald Trump won it in 2016.
Competitive field of candidates, familiar names, in NY-21
New York's 21st Congressional District Democratic primary has received national attention due to the entry of a former MSNBC TV host and controversy between two candidates over endorsements from progressive organizations.
Former Bernie Sanders presidential delegate Patrick Nelson (D) and former St. Lawrence County elected official Tedra Cobb (D) have been in a dispute over the New York Progressive Action Network’s (NYPAN) “Our Revolution” endorsement. Cobb was endorsed by the Capital area chapter, and Nelson by the state organization.
Former MSNBC TV host Dylan Ratigan (D) is running with several labor union endorsements, and New York’s Working Families Party has endorsed small-business owner Katie Wilson. Former professor and nonprofit executive Emily Martz (D) is running on her experience in finance and economic development.
Grassroots Democrats and DCCC face off in NY-24
A dispute between grassroots Democrats and the DCCC has played out in the weeks before the 24th Congressional District primary.
MoveOn.org joined the Working Families Party and all four of the District’s Democratic county committees in endorsing visiting Syracuse University professor Dana Balter (D).
The DCCC made headlines when they added former Syracuse mayoral nominee Juanita Perez Williams (D) to its “Red to Blue” program after the local committees had endorsed Balter.
Late in the campaign, a PAC run by House Democratic Caucus Chair Rep. Joe Crowley (D) made a $5,000 contribution to Williams’ campaign, which is the same amount that MoveOn.org’s PAC donated to Balter’s campaign.
Special guest analysis: Primary rules matter
Rob Richie is the President and CEO of Fairvote. We invited him to summarize the voting rules in play in upcoming primaries.
The June 26 primaries showcase how state rules can affect outcomes:
- In Mississippi and Oklahoma, nominees must earn a majority. Mississippi Democrats will pick a Senate nominee three weeks after the top finisher earned 32%. Oklahoma’s Republican gubernatorial primary will likely go to an August 28th runoff. Mississippi’s runoff is shorter because its overseas voters cast ranked choice voting ballots with their primary ballot; votes go to the runoff candidate ranked higher on each ballot.
- Most states don’t require majorities. In Colorado, crowded governor fields likely will mean low percentage wins, as also true in Democratic primaries in Maryland for governor and the sixth congressional district. This year 58 nominees for Congress, Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General earned less than 50%, including two under 25%.
- In Maine Janet Mills earned the Democratic nomination for governor in the modern era’s first ranked choice voting state primary. Mills went from 33% in the first round to an “instant runoff” win with 55%, earning more votes than any gubernatorial nominee in three decades. Mainers also kept RCV in place for primary and congressional elections.
- New York holds federal primaries tomorrow and state primaries in September. This unique division of primaries will mean lower turnout.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What qualities do you possess that would make you a successful officeholder?
“When I see something, I do something and I don’t give up. When my brother was killed in the Lockerbie bombing, I was just 19 years old. But along with other victims’ families, we went up against big business, special interests and even our own government to get justice. It took 20 years to pass the Iran Libya Sanctions Act - but I refused to give up until we won. In the 1990’s I noticed that the immigrant clients at the soup kitchen where I was volunteering didn’t have the English skills they needed to make a better life for themselves, so I started volunteering to teach English as a second language. In 2001, I started the New York chapter of Environmental Entrepreneurs to bring private sector solutions to environmental issues. I testified before the City Council and helped to bring hybrid taxis to decrease emissions, and commissioned a study that made the economic case to bring recycling back to New York state. In 2004, I saw the Democratic Party floundering and along with other activists like now Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, founded The Democratic Agenda to push forward bold ideas for the party like Medicare for All and Marriage Equality.”
- Brian Flynn, candidate for New York’s 19th Congressional District
Read all of Brian Flynn's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Hillary Clinton
Former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has backed two primary candidates facing progressive challengers in 2018.
In Florida’s 27th Congressional District, Clinton endorsed Donna Shalala in the race for what some have called the most vulnerable Republican district in the country. Shalala is a former Clinton administration official and headed the Clinton Foundation. Her top challenger is state Rep. David Richardson, who is touting his support for progressive policies.
Clinton also endorsed New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in his re-election bid. He is a possible 2020 presidential contender, and has endorsements from Joe Biden, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and DNC Chairman Tom Perez. Cuomo faces former Sex and the City star Cynthia Nixon, who is calling herself a progressive alternative to Cuomo.
What we're reading
- For Democrats Challenging Party Incumbents, Insurgency Has Its Limits New York Times
- Will Democrats Fumble the 2018 Midterm Elections? Rolling Stone
- Hickenlooper, in extraordinary move, endorses Phil Weiser in Democratic primary for Colorado attorney general Denver Post
- Why Aren’t Top Democrats Acknowledging the Black Women Running for Office? The Atlantic
