Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 29 (August 20, 2018)
This week: Florida and New York take center stage. Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: None
Passed filing deadlines: 51 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: Aug. 21 (Alaska, Wyoming), Aug. 28 (Arizona, Florida)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,181 Democrats, 1,030 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Democrats across the Midwest are opting for a conventional cast of technocrats and long-time public officials in the party's first response to Donald Trump’s 2016 victories — a rebuttal of sorts to the party's lunge leftward in the run-up to 2020”
- David Siders, Politico, Aug. 15, 2018
“But if you looked anywhere down the ballot in Minnesota, it’d be instantly clear that this take was obviously, hopelessly wrong. Instead of a victory lap for the Democratic old guard, Tuesday’s results instead looked like a rebuke of it: In key federal races around the state, from Minneapolis to northern and southern Minnesota, primary voters selected young and diverse faces to pick up the party’s banner, representing what observers anticipate is a new generation of DFL leaders.”
- Sam Brodey, MinnPost, Aug. 16, 2018
U.S. Congress
Boricua Vota defends Soto on Hurricane Irma relief in FL-09, race gets personal during debate
Puerto Rican voter engagement group Boricua Vota endorsed U.S. Rep. Darren Soto (D-Fla.) in Florida’s 9th Congressional District primary, defending him against criticism from challenger and former Rep. Alan Grayson (D) about how Soto handled the response to Hurricane Irma.
Grayson’s campaign sent out mailers accusing Soto of “dining with D.C. lobbyists” during Florida’s state of emergency. Boricua Vota said Soto volunteered to load trucks with supplies and questioned where Grayson was.
Soto defeated Grayson’s wife Dena in 2016, and is the first Puerto Rican member of Florida’s congressional delegation. The race has become increasingly personal. Soto called Grayson disrespectful to women, while Grayson mentioned Soto’s wife’s arrest during a debate earlier this month.
Capuano and Pressley debate NFL player protests in MA-07
Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District incumbent Rep. Michael Capuano (D) and his primary challenger, Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley (D), faced off in a debate Wednesday. The candidates discussed the DREAM Act, criminal justice, and abortion. But the strongest contrast was over NFL players protesting against police brutality.
Capuano was asked about comments he made last year criticizing NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick for kneeling during the national anthem.
“I thought that particular action divided America, because he chose to do it on the national anthem,” Capuano said.
Capuano said while he understood and agreed with Kaepernick’s actions, “I just thought it could have been done in a way that brings more people into the discussion, rather than actually anger an awful lot of America.”
Pressley said “It’s necessary that we are disruptive right now and making people uncomfortable.”
“The issue of police brutality and disproportionate brutality and murder of black men strikes at the soul and consciousness of this country,” she said. Massachusetts' 7th is the state's only majority-minority district, a point Pressley has noted on the campaign trail. "This district and these times demand more than an ally,” she said. “They demand an advocate and a champion.”
The Congressional Black Caucus has endorsed Capuano.
State executives
FL gov update: Rivals criticize Graham, Tampa mayor endorses, Bernie rallies for Gillum
One week before Florida Democrats decide their gubernatorial candidate, ads opposing other candidates and high profile endorsements are pouring into the Sunshine State.
Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine and Palm Beach real estate investor Jeff Greene are taking aim at former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, who led all polls in July and early August.
Greene and the service employee union UNITE HERE Florida (which endorsed Levine) both aired television ads criticizing the Graham family’s involvement in a mega-mall project. The ads claim the project will only provide low-wage jobs and hurt the Everglades.
Graham, meanwhile, secured an endorsement from Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn. He is reportedly interested in running as her lieutenant governor if she is nominated.
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) came to central Florida Friday for a rally with Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.
Like Sanders, Gillum supports single-payer health care. He has trailed Graham, Levine, and Greene in most polls.
New York Democrats continue to line up behind James for attorney general
New York City Public Advocate Letitia “Tish” James continues to gather support from New York’s Democratic elected officials in her bid for attorney general. Her endorsers include Gov. Andrew Cuomo, State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, and New York City Council Speaker Corey Johnson.
James recently announced endorsements from eight Democratic members of New York’s congressional delegation. No New York members of Congress have endorsed James’ chief rival, U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney.
When asked about James’ endorsement list, Maloney said, “I think that is a losing strategy, and it is a terrible message right now when the Democratic Party voters I talk to want the Democratic Party blown up and rebuilt.”
“The Democrats I talk to want change,” Maloney said. “They want something new and different.”
Law professor Zephyr Teachout and former Hillary Clinton aide Leecia Eve are also running in the Sept. 13 primary.
Teachout has received support from the party’s progressive wing, including endorsements from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and 2018 New York gubernatorial candidate Cynthia Nixon, as well as The New York Times.
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to 2016. Takeaways: In the 45 states holding partisan elections in 2018, the number of Democratic candidates running increased 18.4 percent. The number of incumbents retiring decreased 2.0 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges increased 6.1 percent and the number of Democratic primaries increased 23.0 percent.
Massachusetts House budget chairman touts progressive support
Massachusetts state Rep. Jeffrey Sanchez (D), the chairman of the House Ways and Means committee, touted his support from progressive groups at a campaign event Tuesday.
Sanchez appeared alongside several backers, including Union of Minority Neighborhoods Executive Director Horace Small and former state Rep. John McDonough (D).
Sanchez has represented the 15th Suffolk District since 2002. He faces a primary challenge from Nika Elguardo (D), a former staffer to state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz (D).
The two differ on the fate of the Safe Communities Act, which would have prevented local law enforcement from cooperating with federal authorities on immigration measures. Sanchez removed a version of the act from the proposed 2019 budget in committee, saying he was concerned it did not have sufficient support in the House. Elguardo has accused Sanchez of killing the measure at the request of state House Speaker Robert DeLeo (D).
Elguardo and Sanchez are the only candidates on the ballot in the Sept. 4 primary. As no other parties fielded candidates, the winner of the Democratic primary will also win the general election.
NYC Mayor endorses IDC challengers
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio joined city Comptroller Scott Stringer and city council Speaker Corey Johnson in endorsing state Senate candidates challenging former members of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC).
Mayor de Blasio endorsed attorney Zellnor Myrie’s challenge of Brooklyn state Sen. Jesse Hamilton and Jessica Ramos’ challenge of Queens state Sen. Jose Peralta.
As IDC members, Hamilton and Peralta caucused with Senate Republicans until April 2018 and helped the GOP retain control of the chamber. Six additional former IDC members face primary challengers supported by progressive influencers.
The former IDC members may have bigger problems than opposition from NYC leaders. A state election watchdog recently ordered them to return money received from a joint IDC-Independence Party fundraising account. They are challenging the order.
The $2.5 million account provided over $600,000 to the eight former IDC members in the last six months. Without those contributions, Ramos and Myrie would lead Peralta and Hamilton, respectively, in cash on hand.
Special guest analysis: Will anti-Trump sentiment boost Democrats in Florida's governor race?
John Haughey is a contributor to Watchdog.org. We invited him to share analysis of Florida's gubernatorial race. Click here to read more.
A Democrat has not been elected governor of Florida since Gov. Lawton Chiles won his second term in 1994. The GOP nominee will face one of five Democratic challengers, with former Miami Mayor Philip Levine and former Congresswoman Gwen Graham, the daughter of former governor and U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, the front-runners. A survey by Democratic pollster Tom Eldon had the centrist Levine polling 2 percent, 30-28, over Graham “among those who say they have already voted” – more than 700,000 early ballots had been cast statewide by Aug. 15 – and 31-24 percent with those who “expressed a high degree of interest” in Democratic primaries.
The poll, released Aug. 16, placed Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum third, Palm Beach billionaire Jeff Greene fourth and Orlando entrepreneur Chris King fifth.
All five Democrats have criticized the sugar industry’s role in contributing to the Lake Okeechobee algae bloom, with Gillum offering the 50,000 people who now rely on the industry “a new deal” and King questioning why Graham accepted $17,000 in campaign donations from industry interests.
Graham has campaigned on improving schools and supporting teachers; abortion rights; and banning the sale of semi-automatic “assault weapons.”
Greene – who has spent $25 million of the $101 million in spending by all candidates in the gubernatorial campaign — and Levine have pledged to end public funding for charter schools.
Levine wants to cut corporate tax loopholes and expand gambling at Seminole Tribe casinos, emphasizing his plans to generate revenues.
Democrats expect anti-Trump sentiment to boost their party rolls for the mid-term elections, but according to the Florida Division of Elections, the anticipated “blue wave” has not manifested for the primary. In fact, the percentage of registered Democrats who will vote in the primary is down by nearly 2 percent from 2016. Conversely, the percentage of registered Republicans remains the same as 2016. Democrats will account for 37 percent of the 13 million eligible primary voters with Republicans constituting 35 percent of the electorate. Of the nearly 710,000 early votes cast as of Aug. 15, more than 680,000 were absentee ballots. Republicans accounted for 47 percent, Democrats 40 percent.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here. ''If you could be any fictional character, who would you be?
Yeah Yeah from "Sandlot."
- Yahya Yuksel, candidate for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District
Read all of Yahya Yuksel's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Collective Super PAC
The Collective Super PAC has committed at least $1.8 million to support Andrew Gillum's candidacy in Florida’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.
The group's website says it "is working to fix the challenge of African American underrepresentation in elected seats of power throughout our nation."
Through June 30, Collective Super PAC reported $1.3 million in total expenditures, $1.2 million of which went toward web ads and media consulting, including $782,000 on TV ads opposing the race’s frontrunner, former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham.
Collective Super PAC announced it would spend an additional $1 million on the race, including contributions to Forward Florida, Gillum's political committee, and $500,000 on an ad against Graham.
Collective Future, the 501(c)(4) arm of the super PAC, contributed $266,000 to Forward Florida through April. Collective Future contributed $1.1 million to the Collective Super PAC through June.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Our Revolution, and George Soros endorsed Gillum, who has trailed in recent polls.
Collective Super PAC has also endorsed 15 candidates for statewide offices, 17 for federal offices, and 10 for municipal and state legislative seats. Its spending has primarily gone toward the Florida gubernatorial primary.
What we're reading
- Cuomo’s State Senate Deal Unravels As Rogue Democrats’ Rivals Gain Momentum New York Magazine
- The Democratic Insurgency Is Winning the War of Ideas The Nation
- In Democratic primary, attorney general candidates target President Trump Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
- 5 winners and 3 losers from primaries in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Vermont, and Connecticut Vox
