How do major media outlets declare winners? (2024)
Millions of Americans tuned into major news media and monitored social media outlets on Election Day to see who declared the winners. Here’s how major outlets used exit polling, online surveys, turnout numbers, voting patterns, and election return trends to project winners and communicate those announcements.
Click the links below to see statements from major media outlets about their methodologies for calling elections:
Associated Press
The Associated Press wrote in January 2024:[1]
| “ |
1. Collect the votes Our vote count reporters collect votes at a local level from county clerks throughout the night. They also monitor government web sites where vote totals are posted by election officials. 2. Enter the results The vote count reporters call in results to a vote entry clerk, who keys in the results to AP’s election system. Those clerks also enter results from official sources online and monitor automated feeds provided by election officials. 3. Double check, and check again Vote results are subject to intense verification efforts, so that AP’s race calls are unfailingly accurate. In 2020, we were 99.9% accurate in calling U.S. races and 100% accurate in calling the presidential and congressional races in each state. 4. Deliver the results – fast Results are sent to AP customers, who report them on air and online. Results are updated throughout the evening and the days following Election Day, until every race is called and state officials certify their results as final.[2] |
” |
NBC News
In January 2024, John Lapinski, Stephanie Perry and Charles Riemann said:[3]
| “ | Early on election night, the NBC News Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether uncompetitive races can be called. Most races are called based on analyses of precinct- and county-level vote returns. The analyses also examine differences between early and Election Day votes. In close contests, a careful analysis of how much of the vote has not been counted is a crucial part of the process. No race is projected until the Decision Desk is confident of the winner. NBC News will not project a winner in a race until after the last scheduled poll-closing time in a state.'[2] | ” |
CNN
In November 2022, CNN political director David Chalian said said:[4]
| “ | We have a pretty robust decision desk operation. It's a bunch of statisticians and sort of political experts in the demography and voting patterns of each of these congressional districts in the country, and they are so steeped in this, and there are models. As the vote is coming in, the models start coming up, telling you sort of who can win and who can lose. And when our decision desk gets to 99.9% certainty that the candidate behind in a race cannot overtake the candidate ahead with the outstanding vote, they can make a projection. That's the level of certainty we get.[2] | ” |
See also
- Are results reported on election night coming from in-person or absentee/mail-in votes?
- What happens if candidates declare victory before results are final?
- How and when are election results finalized?
Footnotes
- ↑ Associated Press, "How the AP counts the vote and declares winners in US elections," accessed August 27, 2024
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ NBC News, How the NBC News Decision Desk makes election calls in 2024 races," August 26, 2024
- ↑ CNN, "CNN political director pulls back the curtain on how CNN projects winners," November 7, 2022
