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Marquette Law School Poll
| Marquette Law School Poll | |
 | |
| Basic facts | |
| Location: | Milwaukee, Wis. |
| Type: | Polling firm |
| Year founded: | 2011 |
| Website: | Official website |
The Marquette Law School Poll is a polling organization sponsored by the Law School at Marquette University in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The poll was established in 2011 to measure public opinion on political, social, and electoral issues in the state of Wisconsin.[1]
Background
The Marquette Law School Poll was announced in November 2011 as a project of the law school's public policy initiatives. In the original project description, the university announced the polling as a 2012 project, writing, "Through a yearlong program of surveys and scientifically sound polls, the Marquette Law School Poll will inform understanding of public opinion and political choice. There are three likely themes for this initiative: presidential and Senate campaigns; citizen reaction to the current state administration and its policy choices; and attitudinal structure and perceptions of Wisconsin voters."[2]
Methodology
The Marquette Law School's polls are conducted over four nights by live interviewers. The polling is done by phone, including landlines and mobile phones. Interviewers read a script designed by the poll's directors. The poll's website notes that phones "are dialed randomly within a list of all area codes and exchanges in the state. Cell numbers are selected similarly from working cell exchanges. Cell respondents are screened to ensure that they actually live in Wisconsin and to identify their county of residence."[1]
Polling activity
2020 elections
According to an analysis of 12 polls, FiveThirtyEight gave Marquette an overall grade of A/B on May 19, 2020.[3]
Discussing the accuracy of a September 2020 Marquette presidential poll that showed Joe Biden (D) leading Donald Trump (R) by four points in Wisconsin, Poll Director Charles Franklin said, "If polling were fundamentally broken we couldn’t have been as accurate in ‘18 as we were. But that fact that we were so wrong in 2016 is why everyone needs to remember that polls don’t vote, people do. The outcome of the race is in the hands of the voters."[4]
2016 elections
Marquette Law School Poll incorrectly projected that Hillary Clinton (D) would win the 2016 presidential election by six points. In discussing the poll's inaccuracy, Poll Director Charles Franklin said, "In the exit poll for Wisconsin, 14 percent of voters said they decided in the last week how to vote, and they went for trump 58-to-31, a really remarkably lopsided late decision. That was all done after my poll was finished, but after every other poll in the state was finished."[5]
The Marquette University Law School Poll published the following noteworthy polls in 2016:
- Presidential election
- Hillary Clinton (D) leading Donald Trump (R) by three points among likely voters in Wisconsin, August 28, 2016[6]
- Clinton leading Trump by two points among likely voters in Wisconsin, Spetember 18, 2016[7]
- Clinton leading Trump by four points among likely voters in Wisconsin, October 9, 2016[8]
- Clinton leading Trump by six points among likely voters in Wisconsin, October 31, 2016[9]
- U.S. Senate election
- Russ Feingold (D) leading Ron Johnson (R) among likely voters in Wisconsin by three points, August 28, 2016[6]
- Feingold leading Johnson by six points among likely voters in Wisconsin, September 18, 2016[7]
- Feingold leading Johnson by two points among likely voters in Wisconsin, October 9, 2016[8]
- Feingold leading Johnson by one point among likely voters in Wisconsin, October 31, 2016[9]
2014 elections
- Gubernatorial election
- Scott Walker (R) leading Mary Burke (D) among likely voters in Wisconsin by six points, September 28, 2014[10]
- Walker tied with Burke among likely voters in Wisconsin, October 12, 2014[11]
- Walker leading Burke among likely voters in Wisconsin by seven points, October 26, 2014[12]
2012 elections
- Presidential election
- Barack Obama (D) leading Mitt Romney (R) among likely voters in Wisconsin by 15 points, September 16, 2012[13]
- Obama leading Romney among likely voters in Wisconsin by 11 points, September 30, 2012[14]
- Obama leading Romney among likely voters in Wisconsin by one point, October 14, 2012[15]
- Obama leading Romney among likely voters in Wisconsin by eight points, October 28, 2012[16]
- U.S. Senate election
- Tammy Baldwin (D) leading Tommy Thompson among likely voters in Wisconsin by nine points, September 16, 2012[13]
- Baldwin leading Thompson among likely voters in Wisconsin by four points, September 30, 2012[14]
- Thompson leading Baldwin among likely voters in Wisconsin by one point, October 14, 2012[15]
- Baldwin leading Thompson among likely voters in Wisconsin by four points, October 28, 2012[16]
Recent news
The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms 'Marquette Law School Poll'. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Marquette University Law School, "About the Poll," accessed October 23, 2017
- ↑ Marquette University Law School, "The Law School’s Next Major Public Policy Initiative: Marquette Law School Poll," November 1, 2011
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings," May 19, 2020
- ↑ Fox 11 News, "Wisconsin: A battleground state for the presidential election," September 17, 2020
- ↑ WUWM 89.7, "Marquette Poll Director on Misreading the 2016 Election," November 14, 2016
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll – August 25-28, 2016," August 28, 2016
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll – September 15-18, 2016," September 18, 2016
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll – October 6-9, 2016," October 9, 2016
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll – October 26-31, 2016," October 31, 2016
- ↑ Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll – September 25-28, 2014," September 28, 2014
- ↑ Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll – October 9-12, 2014," October 12, 2014
- ↑ Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll – October 23-26, 2014," October 26, 2014
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll Toplines," September 16, 2012
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll Toplines," September 30, 2012
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll Toplines," October 14, 2012
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 Marquette University Law School Poll, "Marquette Law School Poll Toplines," October 28, 2012
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