Robert Cahaly
| Robert Cahaly | |
 | |
| Basic facts | |
| Organization: | Trafalgar Group |
| Role: | President |
| Location: | Atlanta, GA |
| Website: | Official website |
Robert Cahaly is the founder and senior strategist of the Trafalgar Group. In addition to his work as a pollster, Cahaly is a lecturer and public speaker. Because of his prominence as a pollster, he frequently appears on cable news shows.[1]
Biography
Cahaly was born in Georgia and raised in Pendleton, South Carolina. His first work in politics was campaigning door-to-door for a countywide race when he was ten. He has subsequently worked in 22 states. He has worked on the political campaigns of Carroll Campbell, David Beasley, Mike Huckabee, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Henry McMaster, Strom Thurmond, Bob Dole, Tim Scott, Ben Sasse, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump.[2][1]
Work and experience
Polling work
Cahaly and Trafalgar came to national prominence in 2016 because the firm correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the election in Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Electoral College vote. [3]
Trafalgar's website said the firm had the most accurate 2020 presidential polling, relative to the final result, in Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.[1] Five Thirty Eight reported Trafalgar had the second-lowest average error in the 2020 election cycle.[4]
Cahaly has said he uses a methodology in his polling to try to take account of what is known as "social desirability bias". This term refers to situations where individuals who are being polled may believe that it is socially undesirable to provide certain responses to the polling company and who might therefore answer the questions inaccurately, without stating their actual preferences.[5]
As of October 2025, Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, gave Trafalgar a B+ rating.[6] As of October, 2025 the website Real Clear Politics had Trafalgar as the fifth-most reliable multi-state or national pollster from 2014 to 2022.[7]
Noteworthy endorsements
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See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 The Trafalgar Group, "Biography of Robert Cahaly"
- ↑ AAE Speakers, "Robert Cahaly," accessed October 2, 2025
- ↑ PoliZette, "Polls Show Your Neighbor Is Voting for Trump," November 2, 2016
- ↑ Five Thirty Eight, "The Death Of Polling Is Greatly Exaggerated," March 25, 2021
- ↑ RealClearPolitics, "Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016: Michigan a Dead Heat", June 22, 2020
- ↑ Silver Bulletin, "Pollster Ratings," accessed October 2, 2025
- ↑ Real Clear Politics, "RCP Pollster Scorecard," accessed October 2, 2025
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