Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for April 11, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
April 11, 2017: While autonomous vehicles (driverless cars) are coming soon, it will be a while before they completely dominate American streets and highways. That’s because Americans tend to hang on to their cars for an average of 11.2 years.
There are currently 271 million cars on the road, and half of them are at least 10 years old. Nearly two million are from the 1960s!
| Cars on the road today, by model year | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | |
| Number of cars | 1,712,023 | 2,998,179 | 6,371,864 | 35,867,278 | 120,717,138 | 102,940,248 |
| Share of total | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 13.3% | 44.6% | 38.0% |
| Source: Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers | ||||||
The implications of this for the coming transition to autonomous cars are significant.
In just a few years, autonomous vehicles will become available for consumers. If people keep holding on to their cars for a decade or so, it will be much longer than 10 years before a majority of cars on the road could drive themselves. Every year, the share of autonomous vehicles would grow. They might even quickly represent a majority of all new car sales. But human drivers and autonomous cars will share the road for a long time, just as horses and “horseless carriages” did in the early days of the auto industry.
It’s important to note that the introduction of new technology might dramatically alter how long people hold on to their current cars (I, for one, plan to hang on to my current car only as long as I have to wait for a driverless vehicle). That could speed the transition to a new era, but it’s still going to be a long process.
It’s also worth noting that there are many different types of autonomous vehicles, including many that offer a combination of human and machine driving. I addressed this a while back in a column describing my first ride in a driverless car.[1]
- Yesterday's number looked at the $2,860 average income tax refund in 2016.
- Friday's number looked at the 33.4 percent of American adults with a college degree.
- Thursday's number looked at the 11 percent share of healthcare spending that is controlled by patients.
- Wednesday's number highlighted the 37 failed presidential nominations to the Supreme Court.
- Tuesday's number noted the 44th anniversary of the opening of the Twin Towers at the World Trade Center.
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
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