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Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for July 10, 2018
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
July 10, 2018: An analysis by Harry Enten earlier this year noted that Republicans generally have a turnout advantage in midterm elections, but the size of the advantage depends on who controls the White House. When Republican presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush were in office, the GOP advantage was just a single percentage point. In other words, the share of voters who identified as Republican topped the share who identified as Democratic by one point.[1]
Under Democratic presidents Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, the GOP turnout advantage averaged 5 percentage points.
There are many possible explanations for this difference. One is that voters favoring the party out of power typically are more enthusiastic about voting. Another is that some people who formerly identified with the president’s party grow disenchanted and identify as independents.
A more recent analysis by Enten suggests that polls may be underestimating Democratic support.[2] He cites a series of Monmouth University polls suggesting that Democrats may be doing better in likely voter polls than in polls of registered voters. It is difficult to know how much of an impact this might have because most recent generic congressional ballot polling already assumes that Democrats will have a turnout advantage in November.[3]
A clearer picture of the midterms will have to wait until after Labor Day when more likely voter polling is available.
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
- July 9, 2018 – 43 percent of millennials are saving for a vacation
- July 6, 2018 – 19 percent of American workers work for companies less than 10 years old
- July 5, 2018 – 23 percent of working age Americans get enough exercise
- July 4, 2018 – 242 years ago today, colonial politicians caught up to the colonial culture
- July 3, 2018 – 62 percent of news is seen as biased
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
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Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
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