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Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for June 14, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
June 14, 2017: During Election 2016, one of the most interesting segments of the electorate were the people who had an unfavorable opinion of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. After President Trump was inaugurated, 35 percent of voters were happy that he was in the White House and 31 percent wished Clinton had won.[1] A huge portion of the electorate was unhappy with the choices offered by the nation’s political system.
Today, what may be the most interesting segment of the population is the 17 percent who are unhappy that Trump won but happy that Clinton didn’t.[1] Given a choice between two unpopular candidates, these voters viewed the president as the lesser of two evils. Simmons Research also found that 17 percent wished a third-party candidate had won the election.
| No matter how low the job approval ratings drop, it is likely that many who disapprove of the president will still be happy that he prevented Clinton from winning. |
These numbers cast doubt on the belief that Democrats can win in 2018 by simply running on a message of opposition to President Trump. It’s true that the president’s low and declining job approval ratings would normally lead to a wave election victory for the opposing party. However, the Simmons Research data showed that 52 percent of voters were either happy that Trump won or happy that he prevented Clinton from winning. Those data points were collected a little more than a month into the Trump administration, between February 27 and March 5.[2] At that time, the president’s approval was only 44 percent, so there was an 8-point gap between the job approval and the combined support for Trump’s victory.
There is no data measuring that gap today. It is possible that the declining job approval rating has been matched by an increase in the number who don’t like the president but are happy that Clinton was not elected. It is already quite common to hear Republicans and conservatives complain about the president while also expressing relief that he was able to nominate Justice Neil Gorsuch to the U.S. Supreme Court.
No matter how low the job approval ratings drop, therefore, it is likely that many who disapprove of the president will still be happy that he prevented Clinton from winning. The question in 2018 will be whether some of these reluctant Trump supporters can be convinced that things have changed enough for the Democrats to be considered the lesser of two evils.
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- June 9, 2017 191 congressional Democrats who voted for Obamacare are no longer in office
- June 8, 2017 228 years ago today James Madison proposed the Bill of Rights
- June 7, 2017 23 Pivot Counties in Wisconsin that voted twice for Obama then voted for Trump
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
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See also
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Simmons Research, "Simmons State of the Union: How POTUS Effects Consumer Optimism," accessed June 13, 2017
- ↑ Scott Rasmussen, "Email communication with Matt Cumello at Simmons Research," June 12, 2017
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