Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for June 7, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
June 7, 2017: Of all the states that flipped from Democrat to Republican in the 2016 presidential election, Wisconsin may have been the biggest surprise of all. As in many other midwestern states, Pivot Counties played a significant role in this change. But, in Wisconsin, something unique played an even bigger role.
Wisconsin is home to 23 of the nation's 206 Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted twice for Barack Obama and then voted for Donald Trump. From now until Election 2018, Ballotpedia will regularly release new data on these counties and explore what they can teach us about national trends.
In 2016, 18 percent of all Wisconsin votes were cast in Pivot Counties. But, as in other states—such as Iowa and Michigan—they had an outsized impact on the results. While casting 18 percent of the ballots, Pivot Counties accounted for 36 percent of all the GOP gains in the state.
In states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, increased margins in solidly Republican counties played a bigger role. But that didn’t happen in Wisconsin. Such counties contributed only 2 percent of the GOP gains between 2012 and 2016.
Instead, the biggest impact came from 24 counties officially listed as “Other” in the Ballotpedia analysis (counties that were not solidly Democratic, solidly Republican, or Pivot Counties). In Wisconsin, all 24 “Other” counties voted for Obama in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Trump in 2016. These counties cast 24 percent of the Wisconsin vote in 2016 and accounted for 47 percent of all GOP gains in the state.
Nationally, such counties cast just 4 percent of the vote and accounted for 28 percent of GOP gains.
It is likely that the much higher totals in Wisconsin are somehow related to the statewide battles over Governor Scott Walker (R) and his agenda. Walker was elected in 2010, won a recall election in 2012, and was re-elected in 2014. Additionally, there was a statewide political fight over a state Supreme Court justice in 2011, meaning that the people of Wisconsin were subject to almost constant campaigning from 2010 to 2016. In addition to voting for Donald Trump, Wisconsin also re-elected Republican Senator Ron Johnson in 2016.
It is possible, therefore, that the prevalence of Obama-Romney-Trump counties in Wisconsin could be part of a deeper statewide shift toward the GOP.
| Wisconsin counties | Net vote change from 2012 to 2016 | % of net votes gained by GOP in 2016 | % of total votes cast in 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 83,731 | 35.50% | 17.50% |
| Solid GOP | 4,293 | 1.80% | 22.90% |
| Solid Dem | 38,047 | 16.10% | 35.50% |
| Other | 109,696 | 46.50% | 24.20% |
| Total | 235,767 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
It is also plausible to think that the Pivot Counties reflect a desire for change, rather than a traditional partisan alignment. It’s worth noting, however, that the Pivot Counties were generally Democratic leaning prior to 2008.
The Wisconsin Pivot Counties are Adams, Buffalo, Columbia, Crawford, Door, Dunn, Forest, Grant, Jackson, Juneau, Kenosha, Lafayette, Lincoln, Marquette, Pepin, Price, Racine, Richland, Sauk, Sawyer, Trempealeau, Vernon, and Winnebago.
| Wisconsin Pivot Counties | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 51% | 45% | 42% |
| Democrat | 43% | 54% | 57% |
| Margin | R+8 | D+9 | D+15 |
The table below shows the Republican margins contributed by each type of county in the last three presidential elections.
| Wisconsin counties | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 39,114 | -44,617 | -79,050 |
| Solid GOP | 177,793 | 173,500 | 108,087 |
| Solid Dem | -334,754 | -372,801 | -388,263 |
| Other | 140,595 | 30,899 | -55,592 |
| Total | 22,748 | -213,019 | -414,818 |
The map below highlights the different types of counties in Wisconsin:
- June 6, 2017 156,000 Allied troops crossed the English Channel on D-Day
- June 5, 2017 14 percent of young adult women are homemakers, down from 43 percent in 1975
- June 2, 2017 19% of those switching banks joined an online or virtual bank
- June 1, 2017 4 of the 5 fastest-growing cities are in Texas
- May 31, 2017 0: The number of years federal spending declines in President Trump's budget
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
The Number of the Day is broadcast on local stations across the country. An archive of these broadcasts can be found here.
Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
Ballotpedia is the nonprofit, nonpartisan Encyclopedia of American Politics.
See also
- Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day
- Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016
- Pivot Counties in Wisconsin
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
| |||||||||||||||||||||||
