The Federal Tap: It’s the final countdown
From Ballotpedia
November 2, 2018Issue No. 137
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
Monday, October 29
Trump administration to send troops to U.S.-Mexico border
- Secretary of Defense James Mattis approved a request from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to send additional members of the military to the southwest border to assist border patrol agents with a convoy of thousands of migrants from Central America trying to enter the U.S. The active duty troops were approved in addition to the 2,000 National Guard members sent to the U.S.-Mexico border in April 2018. The Pentagon said that 5,200 troops would be deployed, with about 1,800 in Texas, 1,700 in Arizona, and 1,500 in California. The mission is expected to last until mid-December 2018.
- President Donald Trump said that up to 15,000 members of the military could be deployed. He said, "As far as the caravan is concerned, our military is out. We have about 5,000. We'll go up to anywhere between 10 and 15,000 military personnel on top of Border Patrol, [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] and everybody else at the border."
- According to a statement from the Pentagon, the additional troops were approved to support border agents by providing “aviation support to move [Customs and Border Protection] personnel, medical teams to triage, treat and prepare for commercial transport of patients, command and control facilities, temporary housing for CBP personnel and personal protective equipment for CBP personnel.” Members of the military were also authorized to build temporary barriers, barricades, and fencing at the border. The military cannot engage in law enforcement activities at the border because the Posse Comitatus Act bars them from doing so.
Tuesday, October 30
Ballotpedia releases list of 15 races to watch on election night
- We've compiled a list of 15 elections we are watching on November 6, including races for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, governorships, state legislatures, and statewide ballot measures.
- U.S. House races
- Maine’s 2nd District--Incumbent Bruce Poliquin (R), the only Republican congressman from New England, faces state Rep. Jared Golden (D) and two independents.
- Minnesota’s 1st District--Jim Hagedorn (R) and Dan Feehan (D) are running for a seat that voted for both Donald Trump (R) and incumbent Tim Walz (D) in 2016.
- Pennsylvania’s 1st District--U.S. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) faces Scott Wallace (D) for one of Pennsylvania’s newly redrawn congressional districts.
- Texas’ 32nd District--Longtime incumbent Pete Sessions (R), Colin Allred (D), and Melinda Baker (L) are running for a Dallas-area seat that voted for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016.
- U.S. Senate races
- Arizona--U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D), U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, and Angela Green (L) are running to replace Jeff Flake (R) in the Senate.
- Florida--Incumbent Bill Nelson (D) and term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R) are waging an expensive battle for one of the Sunshine State’s Senate seats.
- Indiana--Incumbent Joe Donnelly (D) is defending his seat against Mike Braun (R) and Lucy Brenton (L). Indiana voted for Trump by more than 19 points in 2016.
- Gubernatorial races
- Alaska--Mark Begich (D), Mike Dunleavy (R), and William Toien (L) are competing for Alaska’s governorship. Incumbent Bill Walker (I) withdrew from the race in mid-October, saying he could not win a three-way race with Begich and Dunleavy.
- Florida--After defying expectations and winning their respective primaries, Andrew Gillum (D) and Ron DeSantis (R) are running to replace Rick Scott (R) as Florida governor. A Democrat has not won the seat since 1994.
- Kansas--Kris Kobach (R), Laura Kelly (D), and Greg Orman (I) are running for Kansas’ governorship. Kobach defeated incumbent Jeff Colyer (R) in the August 7 GOP primary.
- State legislatures
- Connecticut State Senate--Democrats and Republicans each control 18 seats, but Democrats hold a tie-breaking vote because they control the lieutenant governor’s office. A Republican win would break the state’s Democratic trifecta.
- Colorado State Senate--Republicans have an 18-16-1 majority. If Democrats win two seats and the governor’s race, they will have a trifecta in the state.
- Minnesota State Senate District 13--Joe Perske (D) and Jeff Howe (R) are running in a special election for District 13 after incumbent Michelle Fischbach (R) became lieutenant governor. This election will decide partisan of the state Senate, which is split 33-33 and not holding regular elections until 2020.
- New York State Senate--Republicans have an effective 32-31 majority in the Senate because Sen. Simcha Felder (D) caucuses with them. Democrats need to win enough seats to have a majority without Felder. If they win the Senate, New York will become a Democratic trifecta.
- Ballot measures
- With 155 statewide ballot measures in 2018, we could not pick just one. Here’s our top 15 list.
Wednesday, October 31
Independence USA PAC commits to an additional $6 million in spending
- Independence USA PAC, a group established by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D) in 2012, reported just under $6 million in spending on behalf of Democratic candidates in 11 U.S. House races this week.
- The majority of the group's spending this week was in three targeted districts, with $1.6 million allocated to the Florida seat left vacant by gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis (R). The group also reported spending over $1 million each against two congressional incumbents, spending $1.5 million in Rep. Pete Sessions' (R) Texas district and $1.3 million against Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) in Washington.
- The reports follow an Oct. 26 announcement from Independence USA that it had launched a $10 million spending campaign on behalf of Democratic U.S. House candidates across the nation. The group has spent over $35 million in support of Democratic U.S. House candidates this election cycle, according to The Hill.
Trump’s final week of travel focuses on states with key Senate races
- In the final week before the midterms, President Donald Trump (R) is making a cross-country trip campaigning for candidates in battleground races:
- According to The Cook Political Report analyst Amy Walter, Trump’s schedule suggests he is focusing on Senate races. Walter said the president is “going to the places where he remains popular, more rural or exurban, and he's staying away from big cities that have suburbs where he's toxic.”
Latest CA-Sen poll shows Feinstein with slight lead
- Probolsky Research released a poll that had Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) slightly leading challenger Kevin de León (D) 41 to 35 percent in the race for the U.S. Senate seat from California. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 3.3 percentage points.
- The latest poll had the gap between support for Feinstein and de León narrower than one released earlier in October. The Public Policy Institute of California conducted a poll that had Feinstein leading de León 43 to 27 percent.
- Feinstein won the top-two primary with 44.2 percent of the vote, while de León received 12.1 percent. Feinstein won her 2012 re-election bid by 25 points. This is the second consecutive U.S. Senate race in the state without a Republican competing in the general election, following the 2016 match-up between U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (D) and Loretta Sanchez (D).
Stay on top of the latest battleground polls
- We've tracked hundreds of polls conducted in U.S. House, Senate, gubernatorial, and other state executive battleground races all year long. Now, you can see them all in one place, by race. Look for changing election outlooks over the course of the year, or see which candidates might have the edge before Tuesday's elections. To see all of the polls we've covered in our 2018 battleground elections, click here.
Congress is out of session
The House and Senate will not be in session. Both chambers will reconvene on November 13, 2018.
SCOTUS is in session
The Supreme Court will hear arguments on November 5, November 6, and November 7. To learn more about this term, read our review.
WHAT'S ON TAP NEXT WEEK
Monday, November 5
Supreme Court will hear arguments in Sturgeon v. Frost
- The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments in Sturgeon v. Frost. In 2007, John Sturgeon was told by National Park Service rangers that he could not operate his hovercraft on the Nation River because it was within the boundaries of Alaska’s Yukon-Charley National Preserve conservation unit. Hovercraft are prohibited by the National Park System. Sturgeon then sued the park service. He said that the river was owned by the State of Alaska and that the park service could not enforce its hovercraft ban.
- The court will consider whether the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act prohibits the National Park Service from exercising regulatory control over State, Native Corporation, and private land physically located within the boundaries of the National Park System in Alaska.
- According to SCOTUSblog, the decision could impact "the federal government’s authority to enforce regulations that restrict activities on navigable waters above riverbeds owned by a state. It is well settled that the Army Corps of Engineers, the Coast Guard, and even the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have this power, which flows from specific delegations from Congress. But where does the Park Service fall in this cast of federal characters?"
Tuesday, November 6
A preview of Election Day
- Across the country, federal elections on the ballot include regular elections for 33 U.S. Senate seats and 435 U.S. House of Representatives. There are also special elections for two U.S. Senate seats and four U.S. House seats.
- Of the 33 U.S. Senate seats up for election, Democrats hold 23, Republicans hold eight, and independents who caucus with the Democratic Party hold two. Entering the election, Republicans hold a majority with 51 of the chamber’s 100 seats. Senators serve six-year terms.
- The U.S. Senate special elections are being held in Minnesota and Mississippi to fill the seats formerly held by Al Franken (D) and Thad Cochran (R), respectively. The winners of the special elections will serve until the seats are up for regular election again in 2020.
- We've identified 16 U.S. Senate races as battlegrounds. The list includes 10 seats the Democratic Party must defend in states that supported Donald Trump, and the one that Republicans must defend a state won by Clinton. The 16 battleground Senate elections are taking place in Arizona, California, Florida, Indiana, Minnesota (special), Mississippi (special), Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia.
- Of the 435 U.S. House seats up for election, Republicans hold 235, Democrats hold 193, and seven are vacant. A party needs 218 seats to have a majority in the chamber. In order to win the majority, Democrats would need to flip 23 seats currently held by Republicans or that are vacant but were previously held by Republicans. Representatives serve two-year terms.
- The winners of the four U.S. House special elections (MI-13, NY-25, PA-7, and PA-15) will serve from the election day until January 2019, since the seats are also up for regular election for their full terms.
- We've identified 79 battleground elections for the U.S. House: 70 Republican seats and nine Democratic seats. A number of these battleground elections are among the 25 Republican-held districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016 and the 13 Democrat-held districts that Donald Trump (R) won.
Who do prediction markets favor in the 2018 midterms?
- Ballotpedia is tracking PredictIt markets for U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in the November 6 elections.
- PredictIt is an online market where users purchase shares associated with the outcomes of political events, like the winners of close races, which party controls the U.S. House and Senate, or the number of women elected to each chamber.
- Prices associated with outcomes rise and fall depending on market demand and range from 1 cent (very unlikely) to 99 cents (very likely). Once the events occur, buyers who selected the correct outcome receive $1 for each share they own.
- Services like PredictIt are being used to gain insight into the likely outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argues that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer," he said.
- See Ballotpedia’s page on U.S. Senate and gubernatorial PredictIt markets here:
Where was the president last week?
- On Tuesday, President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump traveled to Pittsburgh to meet with the families of victims of the shooting at the Tree of Life Synagogue.
- On Wednesday, Trump met with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in the afternoon. He then held a campaign rally in Florida for Gov. Rick Scott and Rep. Ron DeSantis.
- On Thursday, Trump received a briefing on election security. He then held a campaign rally in Missouri for Senate nominee Josh Hawley.
- On Friday, Trump held a campaign rally in Indiana for Senate candidate Mike Braun. He also held a rally in West Virginia for Senate candidate Patrick Morrisey, House candidate Carol Miller, and Rep. Alex Mooney.
Federal Judiciary
- 134 federal judicial vacancies
- 56 pending nominations
- 21 future federal judicial vacancies
About
The Tap covered election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events from February 2016 to February 2022.
