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The State and Local Tap: A preview of our 2018 election reviews

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November 2, 2018Issue No. 137

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Week in review
On tap next week

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Here's what happened in state and local politics last week. To see what happened in federal politics, click here.

State Politics: The Week in Review

Ballot Measures Update

2018:

  • Voters in 37 states will decide 155 statewide ballot measures in November. A total of 167 statewide ballot measures were certified for 2018 ballots in 38, but 12 were decided at pre-November elections. Of the 155 measures on the ballot in November, 64 are citizen-initiated measures.
    • The total counts for 2018 do not include the three measures (one in Hawaii and two in Arkansas) that were ruled invalid after ballots were already printed, which means voters will see them on the ballot but elections officials will not count or certify results for them.
    • There were 158 measures certified for the 2014 ballot. In 2016, 162 measures were ultimately on the ballot.
    • Notable trends for 2018 include redistricting and election policy, marijuana, Medicaid expansion and healthcare, Marsy’s Law, energy, restrictions on taxes, abortion, and minimum wage.
  • 2018 ballot measure campaign contributions topped the $1 billion mark last week and continue to rise; ballot measure campaign finance totals exceeded 2016 levels.
    • Ballotpedia has tracked $1.08 billion in contributions to the ballot measure campaigns supporting and opposing the 167 certified 2018 measures (155 for the November election). This moved 2018’s total campaign contributions over 2016’s total of $1.01 billion. Moreover, ballot measure campaigns in several states must file additional campaign finance reports before the election, which means the 2018 total will continue to rise.
    • Support campaigns had raised about 53 percent of the campaign funds. The 68 citizen-initiated measures (64 for the November election) featured about 87 percent of the campaign finance activity. The following three ballot measure battles have drawn more than $100 million in combined campaign contributions each or are likely to before the November election:
      • California Proposition 8, an initiative to limit the revenue of dialysis clinics and require refunds;
      • California Proposition 10, an initiative to allow local rent control; and
      • Nevada Question 3, an initiative on it's second and final round at the ballot to require deregulation of energy markets and the elimination of energy monopolies;
    • Of the total campaign contributions, $368.6 million was in California, $121.4 million was in Nevada, $96.6 million was in Florida, and $75.8 million was in Colorado. In 2016, contributions in California amounted to $497 million, nearly half of the 2016 total. Other states featured far less in ballot measure campaign contributions in 2016, with Oregon, Colorado, and Massachusetts in third, fourth and fifth place each with between $60 and $65 million.Overall in 2016, fewer states featured citizen-initiated measures: 17 states in 2016 and 21 states in 2018. There were more citizen-initiated measures that actually made the ballot in 2016 (76) than in 2018 (68).

Monday, October 29

Final Wisconsin campaign finance reports show Walker with fundraising edge

  • Incumbent Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) continues his fundraising lead over state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers (D), according to campaign finance reports filed with the Wisconsin Ethics Commission Monday.
  • According to the reports, Walker raised $7.7 million during the Sept. 1 - Oct. 22 reporting period to Evers' $6 million. Walker outspent Evers nearly two-to-one during the period, with $10.2 million in reported spending to Evers' $5.9 million. Evers enters the final weeks of the campaign with a slight advantage in cash on hand, reporting $1.7 million in his campaign account to Walker's $1.6 million.
  • Over the course of the campaign, Walker has outraised Evers more than two-to-one, reporting $23.3 million in fundraising since January 1, 2017, to Evers' $9.3 million. Walker has also outspent Evers, with $21.7 million in reported expenditures to Evers' $7.7 million.
  • Walker and Evers are among six candidates on the November ballot.

Tuesday, October 30

Independent Oregon gubernatorial candidate withdraws, endorses Brown

  • Gubernatorial candidate Patrick Starnes (Independent Party of Oregon) withdrew from the race and endorsed Democratic incumbent Kate Brown.
  • Starnes appeared with Brown on KATU News on Tuesday to make his announcement. He said he withdrew because he wanted voters to rally behind Brown. "She gets things done, and I think she can get campaign finance reform passed," Starnes said.
  • A spokesperson for Republican candidate Knute Buehler's campaign told KATU, "One tax and spend liberal endorsing another tax and spend liberal should come as no surprise."
  • Three polls from the past month found Brown leading Buehler by between 3 and 5 percentage points, within or near the polls' margins of error. In all three polls, 4 percent of respondents said they would vote for Starnes.

Wednesday, October 31

South Dakota announces settlement in South Dakota v. Wayfair’’

  • Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) and Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) announced a settlement agreement and dismissal of South Dakota v. Wayfair. The case had been pending litigation in a state circuit court.
  • In 2016, the South Dakota Legislature passed Senate Bill 106 (SB 106), a law requiring sellers with no physical presence in the state to pay state sales taxes. In 2017, South Dakota appealed state circuit court and state supreme court rulings that SB 106 was unconstitutional.
  • In June 2018, the United States Supreme Court overturned the rulings in a 5-4 decision. However, the U.S. Supreme Court's decision did not formally rule that SB 106 was valid. The legislation was sent back to a state circuit court for further review. A statement from the governor's office said, "This final settlement agreement brings a conclusion to all remaining issues not addressed by the United States Supreme Court."
  • According to the governor's office, the settlement removed the injunction preventing South Dakota from enforcing SB 106. The companies involved, Wayfair, Overstock, and Newegg, agreed to remit sales taxes to the state beginning January 1, 2019. Senate Bill 1, a new law the governor signed September 12, 2018, authorized the state to begin collecting sales taxes from other remote online sellers effective November 1.

Ballotpedia published our list of the top 15 ballot measures to watch on Tuesday

  • Although we could have included many more, the staff of the ballot measures project selected 15 notable statewide measures to highlight from among the 155 voters will decide on Tuesday.
  • Some are on the list because of how much is being spent on the campaigns and attention received, some because they represent an important 2018 trend or a national issue, such as Medicaid expansion, elections policy, redistricting, Marijuana, restrictions on taxes, or energy. Others are included because they are unique and would be the first of their kind, such as Washington’s carbon fee initiative and the first statewide vote on gender identity anti discrimination in the U.S. courtesy of a veto referendum petition drive in Massachusetts.
  • To read Ballotpedia's Top 15 ballot measures list for 2018, click here.

Special Elections

  • As of this week, 96 state legislative special elections have been scheduled or held in 26 states. Elections have been held for 26 Democratic seats and 45 Republican seats. Ten seats have flipped from Republican control to Democratic control. Three seats have flipped from Democratic control to Republican control. In special elections between 2011 and 2017, one party (either Republicans or Democrats) saw an average net gain of four seats across the country each year.
    • An average of 90 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past three odd years (2013: 84, 2015: 88, 2017: 98).
    • An average of 44 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past four even years (2010: 26, 2012: 45, 2014: 40, 2016: 65).

Upcoming special elections include:

November 6

December 4

Local Politics: The Week in Review

Elections Update

WHAT'S ON TAP NEXT WEEK

Here's what is happening in state and local politics this week. To see what happened in federal politics, click here.

State Politics: What's On Tap Next Week

Tuesday, November 6

A preview of Election Day

  • Across the country, state elections on the ballot include ballot measures, legislators, executives such as governors and attorneys general, and appellate court judges. Local elections on the ballot include ballot measures, county commissioners, mayors, city councilmembers, school board members, trial court judges, and many other varieties of local elected official.
    • There are 26 Republican trifectas, eight Democratic trifectas, and 16 divided state governments in the nation. A state government trifecta exists when one political party controls both the governor’s office and the state legislature simultaneously. Entering Election Day, five of the Democratic trifectas and 13 of the Republican trifectas are considered vulnerable to change.
    • State executives on the ballot include 36 governors, 30 lieutenant governors, 30 attorneys general, 27 secretaries of state, and 180 down-ballot offices such as treasurer, commissioners, and education officials. Of the 36 gubernatorial positions on the ballot, Republicans currently hold 26, Democrats hold nine, and an independent holds one.
    • State legislatures on the ballot include 87 chambers with a total of 6,073 seats up for regular election. Entering the election, Republicans hold 67 chambers and 4,121 seats, Democrats hold 32 chambers and 3,123 seats, and 139 seats are held by independents, members of other political parties, or are vacant. An additional 24 state legislative seats are up for special election across 10 states.
    • State judiciaries on the ballot include state supreme court seats in 29 states. This includes a special election for two seats on the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia. There are also other appellate court elections on the ballot in 25 states. State judicial elections consist of a mixture of partisan, nonpartisan, contested, and retention elections, depending on the state.
    • Local elections on the ballot include races in 72 counties, 39 cities, and 245 school districts. Ballotpedia is also partially covering local measures in 21 states and all local measures in California. Ballotpedia provides comprehensive coverage of the 100 largest cities in the United States, as measured by population, along with the 200 public school districts, as measured by student enrollment.
    • We're tracking battleground elections at the state and local level. The list includes:
      • Twenty-five gubernatorial races: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
      • Twenty-two state legislative chambers across Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin.
      • Ten attorney general races: Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
      • Six secretary of state races: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Ohio.
      • Local elections like school districts in Austin and Indianapolis, and mayoral races in Austin and Oakland.
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Local Politics: What's On Tap Next Week

Tuesday, November 6

Three Michigan school board recalls on the ballot

  • School board recall elections are being held in the Britton Deerfield, Tecumseh, and Williamston school districts in Michigan. A majority of the members of each school board will be on the recall ballot.
    • In the Britton Deerfield school district, Ben Allshouse, Yvonne Thomas, Brian Bartush, and Doug Mayher Jr. are facing recall due to the board’s 6-0 vote to not renew the contract of a high school principal. Recall supporters also listed the board's failure to post meeting minutes in a timely manner as a reason for the recall effort. The targeted board members said they could not discuss the reasons behind their decision to not renew the principal’s contract. They also said that board meeting minutes were available at the school district office.
    • In the Tecumseh school district, Steven Linn, Kimberly Amstutz-Wild, Debbie Johnson-Berges, and Jim Rice are facing recall due to the district’s implementation of a project-based learning model for two STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Math) centers for seventh- and eighth-grade students. Parents opposed to how the learning model was implemented started the recall effort.
    • In the Williamston Community school district, Greg Talberg, Christopher Lewis, Sarah Belanger, and Nancy Deal are facing recall due to the board’s approval of two new district policies related to gender identity and bathroom and locker room use. Community members opposed to the policies began the recall process.
    • A total of 32 school board recall efforts nationwide have been covered by Ballotpedia in 2018. They targeted 72 board members. Eleven recalls made the ballot in 2018. Ballotpedia covered 33 school board recall efforts targeting 78 members in 2016, and 31 school board recall efforts targeting 65 members in 2014. In 2016, 11 recall efforts made it to the ballot, while seven made it to the ballot in 2014.


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The Tap covered election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events from February 2016 to February 2022.

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