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Wave elections (1918-2016)/Effectiveness of the out-of-power party
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House waves • Senate waves • Gubernatorial waves • State legislative waves |
Competitiveness in State Legislatures |
June 19, 2018
By: Rob Oldham and Jacob Smith
Elections can also be judged on the out-of-power party's effectiveness in gaining seats held by the president's party. By effectiveness we mean the percentage of seats that were gained out of the total seats possible to gain.
We analyzed the effectiveness of the out-of-power party in U.S. House and U.S. Senate races. We found that the wave elections identified in our quintile analyses closely matched the elections where the out-of-power party was most effective.
The chart below shows the top quintile of U.S. House elections measured by the out-of-power party's effectiveness in gaining available seats. Nine of the 10 most effective elections for the out-of-power party were also wave elections.
| U.S. House elections effectiveness | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Out-of-power party | Election type | Seats gained | Seats possible to gain | Effectiveness (%) | Also a wave election? |
| 1932 | Hoover | D | Presidential | 90 | 215 | 41.9% | Yes |
| 1920 | Wilson | R | Presidential | 61 | 195 | 31.3% | Yes |
| 1974 | Ford | D | Second midterm[1] | 52 | 196 | 26.5% | Yes |
| 2010 | Obama | R | First midterm | 64 | 257 | 24.9% | Yes |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | D | Second midterm | 50 | 202 | 24.8% | No |
| 1922 | Harding | D | First midterm | 74 | 304 | 24.3% | Yes |
| 1946 | Truman | R | First midterm | 55 | 245 | 22.5% | Yes |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | R | Second midterm | 75 | 356 | 21.7% | Yes |
| 1994 | Clinton | R | First midterm | 54 | 259 | 20.9% | Yes |
| 1930 | Hoover | D | First midterm | 53 | 268 | 19.8% | Yes |
The graph below shows the effectiveness of the out-of-power party in U.S. House elections from 1918 to 2016.
The chart below shows the top quintile of U.S. Senate elections measured by the out-of-power party's effectiveness in gaining available seats. Eight of the 10 most effective elections for the out-of-power party were also wave elections.
| U.S. Senate election effectiveness | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Out-of-power party | Election type | Seats gained | Seats possible to gain | Effectiveness (%) | Also a wave election? |
| 1932 | Hoover | D | Presidential | 13 | 18 | 72.2% | Yes |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | D | Second midterm | 12 | 20 | 60.0% | Yes |
| 1980 | Carter | R | Presidential | 11 | 23 | 47.8% | Yes |
| 2014 | Obama | R | Second midterm | 9 | 20 | 45.0% | Yes |
| 1946 | Truman | R | First midterm | 10 | 23 | 43.5% | Yes |
| 2006 | George W. Bush | D | Second midterm | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | No |
| 2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | 8 | 21 | 38.1% | Yes |
| 1922 | Harding | D | First midterm | 6 | 16 | 37.5% | No |
| 1986 | Reagan | D | Second midterm | 8 | 22 | 36.4% | Yes |
| 1930 | Hoover | D | First midterm | 7 | 20 | 35.0% | Yes |
The graph below shows the effectiveness of the out-of-power party in U.S. Senate elections from 1922 to 2016.
Click here to read the report as one page.
Click here to read or download the report as a PDF.
Footnotes
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
