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Wave elections (1918-2016)/Effectiveness of the out-of-power party

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Wave elections (1918-2016)

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Wave analyses
What is a wave? • Evaluating 2018 •
House waves • Senate waves • Gubernatorial waves •
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Additional analyses
Multiple waves • Presidential waves • Election types • Overall waves vs. modern waves • Effectiveness of the out-of-power party • U.S. House waves since 1918

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Limitations • Data • Further analysis

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Media coverage • Media definitions

2018 elections
U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Governorships • State legislatures

Other Ballotpedia reports
Who Runs the States
Competitiveness in State Legislatures

June 19, 2018
By: Rob Oldham and Jacob Smith

Elections can also be judged on the out-of-power party's effectiveness in gaining seats held by the president's party. By effectiveness we mean the percentage of seats that were gained out of the total seats possible to gain.

We analyzed the effectiveness of the out-of-power party in U.S. House and U.S. Senate races. We found that the wave elections identified in our quintile analyses closely matched the elections where the out-of-power party was most effective.

The chart below shows the top quintile of U.S. House elections measured by the out-of-power party's effectiveness in gaining available seats. Nine of the 10 most effective elections for the out-of-power party were also wave elections.

U.S. House elections effectiveness
Year President Out-of-power party Election type Seats gained Seats possible to gain Effectiveness (%) Also a wave election?
1932 Hoover D Presidential 90 215 41.9% Yes
1920 Wilson R Presidential 61 195 31.3% Yes
1974 Ford D Second midterm[1] 52 196 26.5% Yes
2010 Obama R First midterm 64 257 24.9% Yes
1958 Eisenhower D Second midterm 50 202 24.8% No
1922 Harding D First midterm 74 304 24.3% Yes
1946 Truman R First midterm 55 245 22.5% Yes
1938 Roosevelt R Second midterm 75 356 21.7% Yes
1994 Clinton R First midterm 54 259 20.9% Yes
1930 Hoover D First midterm 53 268 19.8% Yes

The graph below shows the effectiveness of the out-of-power party in U.S. House elections from 1918 to 2016.

The chart below shows the top quintile of U.S. Senate elections measured by the out-of-power party's effectiveness in gaining available seats. Eight of the 10 most effective elections for the out-of-power party were also wave elections.

U.S. Senate election effectiveness
Year President Out-of-power party Election type Seats gained Seats possible to gain Effectiveness (%) Also a wave election?
1932 Hoover D Presidential 13 18 72.2% Yes
1958 Eisenhower D Second midterm 12 20 60.0% Yes
1980 Carter R Presidential 11 23 47.8% Yes
2014 Obama R Second midterm 9 20 45.0% Yes
1946 Truman R First midterm 10 23 43.5% Yes
2006 George W. Bush D Second midterm 6 15 40.0% No
2008 George W. Bush D Presidential 8 21 38.1% Yes
1922 Harding D First midterm 6 16 37.5% No
1986 Reagan D Second midterm 8 22 36.4% Yes
1930 Hoover D First midterm 7 20 35.0% Yes

The graph below shows the effectiveness of the out-of-power party in U.S. Senate elections from 1922 to 2016.

Click here to read the report as one page.

Click here to read or download the report as a PDF.

Footnotes

  1. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.