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Wave elections (1918-2016)/Overall waves vs. modern waves
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House waves • Senate waves • Gubernatorial waves • State legislative waves |
Competitiveness in State Legislatures |
June 19, 2018
By: Rob Oldham and Jacob Smith
At times, political scientists separate the study of American elections into pre-1945 and post-1945 periods to account for the social change and political realignment the nation went through during the Great Depression and World War II.[1][2]
We divided the wave election data along these lines and applied the same definition of a wave election, those in the top quintile, to elections from 1946 to 2016. We found that the size of a wave election was smaller for all four election groups, most notably U.S. House and state legislative races, in the post-1945 period than in the 1918-2016 period.
We chose to use the full 1918-2016 period for our main analysis rather than the post-1945 period because we wanted to look back at the last 100 years of elections, regardless of partisan realignments or other fundamental changes in American politics, to give readers greater context for how electoral competition has changed.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party must lose for a wave in each election group for the 1946-2016 period and the 1918-2016 period. To see the full set of elections from 1946 to 2016, click here.
| Overall waves vs. modern waves | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period covered | House wave | Senate wave | Gubernatorial wave | State legislative wave | ||
| 1946-2016 | -30 | -6 | -5 | -344 | ||
| 1918-2016 | -48 | -7 | -7 | -494 | ||
Click on the boxes below to see waves for each election group from 1946-2016.
| U.S. House wave elections (1946-2016) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | House seats change | ||
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -63 | ||
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -54 | ||
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -54 | ||
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[3] | -48 | ||
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[4] | -48 | ||
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -47 | ||
| 1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -33 | ||
| 2006 | George W. Bush | R | Second midterm | -30 | ||
| U.S. Senate wave elections (1946-2016) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | ||
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | ||
| 1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -11 | ||
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | ||
| 2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | ||
| 2008 | George W. Bush | R | Presidential | -8 | ||
| 1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -8 | ||
| 2006 | George W. Bush | R | Second midterm | -6 | ||
| 1950 | Truman | D | Second midterm | -6 | ||
| Gubernatorial wave elections (1946-2016) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | Gubernatorial seats change | ||
| 1970 | Nixon | R | First midterm | -12 | ||
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -10 | ||
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[3] | -9 | ||
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -8 | ||
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -7 | ||
| 1982 | Reagan | R | First midterm | -7 | ||
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -6 | ||
| 2006 | George W. Bush | R | Second midterm | -5 | ||
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[4] | -5 | ||
| 1968 | Johnson | D | Presidential | -5 | ||
| 1978 | Carter | D | Second midterm | -5 | ||
| 1952 | Truman | D | Presidential | -5 | ||
| State legislative wave elections (1946-2016) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | ||
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[3] | -782 | ||
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | ||
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | ||
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[4] | -695 | ||
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | ||
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -488 | ||
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -458 | ||
| 1978 | Carter | D | First midterm | -344 | ||
Click here to read the report as one page.
Click here to read or download the report as a PDF.
Footnotes
- ↑ Carson, Jamie, and Gary Jacobson. (2016). "The Politics of Congressional Elections." Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. (pages 182-185)
- ↑ Jacobson, Gary. (1990). "The Electoral Origins of Divided Government: Competition in U.S. House elections, 1946-1988." Boulder, CO: Westview Press. (pages 77-80)
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
