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Daily Brew: April 26, 2019

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April 26, 2019

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Today's Brew brings your our newest analysis + NC-3 primary elections take place Tuesday  
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Friday, April 26, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Since 1920, 14.4% of all U.S. House elections had only one major party candidate
  2. 25 candidates are running in Tuesday’s 3rd Congressional District primaries in North Carolina
  3. Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) launches third presidential bid

Since 1920, 14.4% of all U.S. House elections had only one major party candidate

Every two years, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, and each cycle, there are candidates with no major party opposition. But how often does that happen? Ballotpedia found out.

From 1920 to 2018, there were 2,434 U.S. House races that did not have a Republican candidate in the general election and 707 races that lacked a Democratic candidate. Thus, 14.4% of regularly scheduled U.S. House of Representatives elections featured only one major party candidate.

In 2018, 41 U.S. House races (9.4%) had only a Democratic or Republican candidate, but not both, in the general election. Three of the 41 races did not have a Democratic candidate and the remaining 38 did not have a Republican candidate. In comparison, there were 61 such races in 2016 and 76 in 2014.



The election years that had the most races without major-party opposition were 1930 (99), 1998 (95), 1942 (89), 1958 (89), and 1934 (83). The election years with the fewest such races were 1996 (21), 2010 (29), 1992 (31), 1932 (35), and 2018 (41). The number of U.S. House races that featured only one major-party candidate in 2018 was the fifth-fewest in the last 100 years.



During this period, the average number of U.S. House races in a given year with only one major party candidate in the general election was 62.8. In the 10 election cycles from 2000 to 2018, the average was 57.4 races.

Since 1920, only six states had both a Democratic and Republican candidate in every general election—Alaska, Delaware, Idaho, Montana, New Hampshire, and Wyoming.


25 candidates are running in Tuesday’s 3rd Congressional District primaries in North Carolina

Primary elections will occur Tuesday in the special election for North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District. This is the vacancy created by the death of former Rep. Walter Jones (R) in February 2019. Jones had represented the 3rd District since 1995 and never received less than 60% of the general election vote since 2000. No Democratic candidate ran against Jones in 2018.

Twenty-five candidates—six Democrats, 17 Republicans, and two Libertarians— are running in primary elections. There is also one Constitution Party candidate.

The 17 Republicans include six elected officials and six candidates with backgrounds in politics or notable endorsements. Two notable outside groups have issued endorsements in the race—Club for Growth PAC supports Celeste Cairns and Susan B. Anthony List backs Joan Perry. Both groups have purchased advertisements on behalf of their preferred candidate, with Cairns also getting an ad buy from Awake Carolina and Perry getting one from Winning for Women.

Through April 10, State Rep. Greg Murphy raised $318,000 for his campaign, more than any other Republican candidate. Five other Republicans have raised between $105,000 and $154,000 each.

Among the six Democratic candidates, two have raised more than $100,000—former Greenville mayor Allen Thomas ($255,000) and retired Marine Colonel Richard Bew ($125,000).

The date of the general election depends on the outcome of the primary elections. If no candidate receives more than 30% of the vote in the Democratic or Republican primary, a primary runoff will occur July 9. The general election would then take place Sept. 30. If primary runoffs are not necessary, the general election will be July 9.

To date, four special elections—three for the House, one for the Senate—have been called during the 116th Congress. Forty special elections were held from the 113th Congress to the 115th Congress. Four of the 17 special elections held during the 115th Congress resulted in a change of partisan control.

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) launches third presidential bid

Former vice president Joe Biden launched his bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination Thursday. Biden unsuccessfully sought the nomination in 1988, and again in 2008.

The former seven-term Delaware Senator and two-term vice president becomes the 21st notable Democratic elected official or public figure to seek the party's nomination.

Greg Schultz, who served as Ohio state director for former President Barack Obama (D), will manage Biden’s campaign. Other senior advisers include Kate Bedingfield as communications director, Pete Kavanaugh as deputy campaign manager, Erin Wilson as national political director, and Olympian Michelle Kwan as surrogates director.

Fourteen vice presidents have become president in U.S. history—nine by succession and five by election.


See also