North Carolina's 11th Congressional District elections, 2012
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November 6, 2012 |
May 8, 2012 |
Mark Meadows  |
Heath Shuler  |
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The 11th Congressional District of North Carolina held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
Mark Meadows (R) won election to the U.S. House of Represention November 6th, 2012, defeating Hayden Rogers (D) 57% to 43%.[1] Rogers was the chief of staff to the outgoing Heath Shuler (D). This switched partisan control of the district.
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: North Carolina has a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by April 13. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 12.[2]
- See also: North Carolina elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Heath Shuler (D), who was first elected to the House in 2006. In February 2012, however, Shuler announced he would not be running for re-election in 2012.[3]
This was the first election using district maps based on data from the 2010 Census. North Carolina's 11th Congressional District was located in the western portion of the state and included Yancey, McDowell, Rutherford, Polk, Henderson, Buncombe, Madison, Haywood, Jackson, Transylvania, Swain, Macon, Clay, Graham, Cherokee counties.[4]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. Click here for more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan. Please contact us about errors in this list.
General election candidates
July 17, 2012 Republican primary runoff candidates
May 8, 2012, primary results
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- Note: Dan Eichenbaum appeared on initial lists but ultimately withdrew prior to the primary.[13]
Election results
General election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Hayden Rogers | 42.6% | 141,107 | |
| Republican |  Mark Meadows |
57.4% | 190,319 | |
| Total Votes | 331,426 | |||
| Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Republican primary
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Mark Meadows |
37.8% | 35,733 |
| Vance Patterson | 23.6% | 22,306 |
| Jeff Hunt | 14.1% | 13,353 |
| Ethan Wingfield | 11.3% | 10,697 |
| Susan Harris | 6.2% | 5,825 |
| Kenny West | 4.2% | 3,970 |
| Spence Campbell | 1.9% | 1,799 |
| Chris Petrella | 0.8% | 778 |
| Total Votes | 94,461 | |
Democratic primary
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Hayden Rogers |
55.7% | 35,518 |
| Cecil Bothwell | 30.1% | 19,161 |
| Tom Hill | 14.2% | 9,049 |
| Total Votes | 63,728 | |
Race background
North Carolina's 11th was considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. After Democratic incumbent Heath Shuler's retirement, his former chief of staff, Hayden Rogers, struggled to keep the district in Democratic hands. He was challenged by Mark Meadows (R) in a redrawn district that was more conservative than before.[14]
The Washington Post listed the House of Representatives elections in North Carolina in 2012 as one of the states that could have determined whether Democrats retook the House or Republicans held their majority in 2013.[15] North Carolina was rated 8th on the list.[15]
North Carolina's 11th District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[16]
Republican challenger Mark Meadows has been included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlights challengers who represent the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[17]
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in North Carolina
Following the 2010 Census results, North Carolina did not gain or lose any congressional seats, maintaining its 13 representatives. Under the new map, the 11th District lost a significant portion of its Democratic territory, and became a swing district for 2012.[8]
Registration statistics
As of May 11, 2012, District 11 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the North Carolina Board of Elections:
| North Carolina Congressional District 11[18] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 11 | 511,513 | 177,436 | 190,030 | 144,047 | Republican | 7.10% | 27.93% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. North Carolina's 11th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[19]
- 2012: 38D / 62R
- 2010: 44D / 56R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. North Carolina's 11th Congressional District has a PVI of R+12, which is the 85th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 59-41 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 63-37 percent over John Kerry (D).[20]
Campaign contributions
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.
Mark Meadows
| Mark Meadows (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[21] | April 15, 2012 | $78,984.20 | $58,895.61 | $(141,380.32) | $196,499.49 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $58,895.61 | $(141,380.32) | ||||||||
Hayden Rogers
| Hayden Rogers (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[22] | April 15, 2012 | $0.00 | $301,489.90 | $(18,102.67) | $283,387.23 | ||||
| July Quarterly[23] | July 15, 2012 | $246,748.82 | $176,177.90 | $(230,658.65) | $192,268.07 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $477,667.8 | $(248,761.32) | ||||||||
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
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See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, North Carolina," accessed November 7, 2012
- ↑ North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Registering to Vote in North Carolina," accessed July 26, 2012
- ↑ Washington Post, "North Carolina Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler to retire" accessed February 25, 2012
- ↑ North Carolina Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed August 24, 2012
- ↑ Roll Call "Former Shuler Chief of Staff mounts congressional bid" accessed February 25, 2012
- ↑ Mountain XPress "Asheville Council member Cecil Bothwell announces run as Democrat against Rep. Shuler," accessed December 26, 2011
- ↑ Asheville Citizen Times "Hill running for Congress in 11th District" accessed February 25, 2012
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Roll Call, "Race Ratings: GOP looks for major gains in North Carolina," accessed December 26, 2011
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 BlueRidgeNow.com "Two more candidates throw hat in ring for Shuler's seat," accessed December 26, 2011
- ↑ Hendersonville Times-News "Two more candidates throw hat in ring for Shuler's seat" accessed February 1,2012
- ↑ Morganton News Herald "List grows for Congressional seat" accessed February 25, 2012
- ↑ Mountain Xpress "Susan Harris files for U.S. Congress in 11th District" accessed April 27, 2012
- ↑ Black Mountain News "Eichenbaum drops out of 11th Congressional Republican primary" accessed April 28, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 Washington Post, "The 10 states that will determine control of the House in 2012," accessed April 25, 2012
- ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
- ↑ NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
- ↑ North Carolina State Board of Elections, "US Congressional Districts by County and Precinct," May 11, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in North Carolina," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Mark Meadows April Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Hayden Rogers April Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Hayden Rogers July Quarterly," accessed August 20, 2012
