United States Senate elections in Nevada, 2012
 Nevada's 2012 elections: • U.S. Senate • U.S. House • State Senate • State Assembly • Board of Education • University Board of Regents • Local Elections • Ballot measures |
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Dean Heller  |
Dean Heller |
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Tossup (Prior to election) |
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Incumbent Dean Heller (R) won re-election to the U.S. Senate on November 6, 2012 narrowly defeating Democratic challenger Shelley Berkley with a little over 1% of the vote.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
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Primary: Nevada has a closed primary system, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by May 12. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6.[2]
- See also: Nevada elections, 2012
Incumbent: The election filled the Class 1 Senate seat, which was held by Dean Heller (R). First appointed to the U.S. Senate in 2010, Heller ran for and won re-election in 2012.
An October 2012 article in The Hill predicted both parties had an equal opportunity at holding control of the Senate after the November election. Specifically, three races were named that could cost the GOP control of the chamber -- Indiana, Massachusetts and Nevada.[3]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.
General election candidates
June 12, 2012 primary results
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Election Results
| U.S. Senate, Nevada, General Election, 2012 | ||||
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| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Shelley Berkley | 44.7% | 446,080 | |
| Republican |  Dean Heller Incumbent |
45.9% | 457,656 | |
| Independent American Party of Nevada | David Lory VanderBeek | 4.9% | 48,792 | |
| N/A | None of these candidates | 4.5% | 45,277 | |
| Total Votes | 997,805 | |||
| Source: Nevada Secretary of State "U.S. Senate Results" | ||||
Race background
Republican incumbent Dean Heller, first appointed to the U.S. Senate in 2010, is seeking re-election 2012. Heller was appointed to the Senate last year after disgraced Republican John Ensign resigned. He served as Nevada's secretary of state before being elected to the U.S. House to represent Northern Nevada in 2006.
In the June 13th primary, Heller won with 86 percent over four challengers from his party. As expected current U.S. Representative Shelley Berkley, who was first elected to represent Las Vegas in 1998, overtook four other candidates to secure the Democratic nomination. She will appear on general election ballot alongside Heller and Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanderBeek.
The November contest for the seat is one of a handful across the nation that could determine which party takes control in the Senate next year. [7]
In July 2012, the House Ethics Committee announced an investigation of Shelley Berkley after she acted to prevent a federal agency from closing a kidney transplant center to which her husband, Dr. Larry Lehrner, had financial ties.[8]
Competitiveness
The New York Times' analysis of the 2012 Nevada Senate race rated it as a toss-up; the seat is currently held by a Republican, but could switch to Democratic.[9]
Race rating
Cook Political Report
Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations: [10]
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Solid Democratic
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Tossup |
Lean Republican
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| Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Nevada Senate | |
|---|---|
| Month | Rating |
| October 4, 2012[11] | |
| September 13, 2012[12] | |
| August 21, 2012[13] | |
| July 12, 2012[14] | |
| May 31, 2012[15] | |
| May 10, 2012[16] | |
| March 22, 2012[17] | |
| March 1, 2012[18] | |
| January 26, 2012[19] | |
| December 22, 2011[20] | |
| December 1, 2011[21] | |
Sabato's Crystal Ball
The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012 detailing the 8 races in the Senate in 2012 that will decide the political fate of which party will end up with control in 2013.[22] The seat rated a toss-up that Sabato's Crystal Ball believes is most likely to depend on the outcome of the Presidential election in November is the Senate seat in Nevada.[22] According to the article, "the size of the Hispanic vote in Nevada come November may be more of a deciding factor in this contest than any SuperPAC." [22]
Polls
Shelley Berkley vs. Dean Heller
| Shelley Berkley vs. Dean Heller | ||||||||||||||
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| Response | Rasmussen Reports (July 24, 2012) | Rasmussen Reports (October 15, 2012) | Las Vegas Review Journal (October 10-15, 2012) | Rassmussen Reports (October 25, 2012) | Project New America/US Action (October 27-28, 2012) | Average | ||||||||
| Shelley Berkley | 42% | 43% | 40% | 45% | 43% | 42.6% | ||||||||
| Dean Heller | 51% | 50% | 46% | 50% | 44% | 48.2% | ||||||||
| Neither | 2% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 3% | ||||||||
| Undecided | 5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 3.6% | ||||||||
| Number polled | 500 | 500 | 806 | 500 | 500 | 561.2 | ||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-4.5 | +/-4.5% | +/-3.5% | +/-4.5% | +/-4.4% | 4.28% | ||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
Campaign contributions
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.
Shelley Berkeley
| Shelley Berkeley[23] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
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| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[24] | April 13, 2012 | $375,908.42 | $1,364,052.11 | $(715,583.42) | $4,407,777.11 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[25] | May 31, 2012 | $440,777.16 | $651,961.34 | $(944,024.72) | $4,115,713.78 | ||||
| July Quarterly[26] | July 13, 2012 | $4,115,713.78 | $898,067.71 | $(985,914.74) | $4,027,866.75 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $2,914,081.16 | $(2,645,522.88) | ||||||||
Dean Heller
| Dean Heller[27] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
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| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[28] | April 14, 2012 | $365,076.55 | $1,076,057.26 | $(460,763.06) | $4,268,370.75 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[29] | May 26, 2012 | $4,268,370.75 | $443,095.76 | $(446,645.10) | $4,264,821.41 | ||||
| July Quarterly[30] | July 14, 2012 | $4,264,821.41 | $771,291.85 | $(586,306.50) | $4,449,806.76 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $2,290,444.87 | $(1,493,714.66) | ||||||||
David Lory VanderBeek
[31]Election history
2010
On November 2, 2010, Harry Reid won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Sharron Angle (R), None of the Above, Scott Ashjian (Tea Party), Timothy Fasano (Independent American), and independent candidates Michael L. Haines, Jesse Holland, Jeffery C. Reeves, and Wil Stand.[32]
| United States Senate Nevada General Election, 2010 | ||||
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| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Harry Reid Incumbent |
50.3% | 362,785 | |
| Republican | Sharron Angle | 44.5% | 321,361 | |
| None of the Above | - | 2.2% | 16,174 | |
| Tea Party | Scott Ashjian | 0.8% | 5,811 | |
| Independent | Michael L. Haines | 0.6% | 4,261 | |
| Independent American | Timothy Fasano | 0.4% | 3,185 | |
| Independent | Jesse Holland | 0.4% | 3,175 | |
| Independent | Jeffery C. Reeves | 0.3% | 2,510 | |
| Independent | Wil Stand | 0.3% | 2,119 | |
| Total Votes | 721,381 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada, 2012
- United States Senate elections, 2012
References
- ↑ Politico "2012 Election Map, Nevada"
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State "Important Election Dates," Accessed July 26, 2012
- ↑ The Hill "Opinion: Republicans facing longer odds in bid to gain Senate control," October 8, 2012
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Roll Call "Nevada Poll Finds Shelley Berkley, Dean Heller Tied in Senate Race," Accessed January 6, 2012
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 Nevada Secretary of State Homepage "Candidate Filings 2012" March 17, 2012
- ↑ Las Vegas Sun "Perennial candidate Edward Hamilton announces third Senate attempt," Accessed January 6, 2012
- ↑ Associated Press "Campaign 2012" June 13, 2012
- ↑ CNN Politcs "House Ethics Committee launches inquiry of Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley" Accessed October 18, 2012
- ↑ The New York Times, "2012 Ratings Senate," accessed September 17, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," Accessed December 12, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," September 13, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 21, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
- ↑ 22.0 22.1 22.2 Center for Politics "Tilting the Toss Ups – the Eight Races That Will Decide the Senate" Accessed April 9, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports "Shelley Berkeley Summary Reports" Accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports "April Quarterly" Accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports "Pre-Primary" Accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports "July Quarterly" Accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports "Dean Heller Summary Reports" Accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports "April Quarterly" Accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports "Pre-Primary" Accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reprots "July Quarterly" Accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC "Reports Images," Accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"
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