United States Senate elections in Nevada, 2012
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Nevada's 2012 elections U.S. Senate • U.S. House • State Senate • State Assembly • State ballot measures • Candidate ballot access |
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Dean Heller  |
Dean Heller |
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Tossup (Prior to election) |
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Voters in Nevada elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.
Incumbent Dean Heller (R) won re-election to the U.S. Senate on November 6, 2012 narrowly defeating Democratic challenger Shelley Berkley with a little over 1% of the vote.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: Nevada has a closed primary system, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by May 12, 2012. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6, 2012.[2]
- See also: Nevada elections, 2012
Incumbent: The election filled the Class 1 Senate seat, which was held by Dean Heller (R). First appointed to the U.S. Senate in 2011, Heller ran for and won re-election in 2012.
An October 2012 article in The Hill predicted both parties had an equal opportunity at holding control of the Senate after the November election. Specifically, three races were named as ones that could have cost the GOP control of the chamber -- Indiana, Massachusetts and Nevada.[3]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. Click here for more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan. Please contact us about errors in this list.
General election candidates
June 12, 2012, primary results
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Election results
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Shelley Berkley | 44.7% | 446,080 | |
| Republican |  Dean Heller Incumbent |
45.9% | 457,656 | |
| Independent American Party of Nevada | David Lory VanderBeek | 4.9% | 48,792 | |
| N/A | None of these candidates | 4.5% | 45,277 | |
| Total Votes | 997,805 | |||
| Source: Nevada Secretary of State "U.S. Senate Results" | ||||
Race background
Republican incumbent Dean Heller, first appointed to the U.S. Senate in 2011, ran successfully for a full term in 2012. Heller was appointed to the Senate last year after Republican John Ensign resigned. He served as Nevada's secretary of state before being elected to the U.S. House to represent Northern Nevada in 2006.
In the June 13th, 2012 primary, Heller won with 86 percent over four challengers from his party. U.S. Representative Shelley Berkley, who was first elected to represent Las Vegas in 1998, defeated four other candidates to win the Democratic nomination. She appeared on the general election ballot alongside Heller and Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanDerBeek.
The November contest for the seat was one that could have determined which party took control in the Senate.[7]
Competitiveness
The New York Times' analysis of the 2012 Nevada Senate race rated it as a toss-up; the seat was held by a Republican, but could have switched to Democratic.[8]
Race rating
Cook Political Report
Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[9]
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Solid Democratic
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Tossup |
Lean Republican
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| Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Nevada Senate | |
|---|---|
| Month | Rating |
| October 4, 2012[10] | |
| September 13, 2012[11] | |
| August 21, 2012[12] | |
| July 12, 2012[13] | |
| May 31, 2012[14] | |
| May 10, 2012[15] | |
| March 22, 2012[16] | |
| March 1, 2012[17] | |
| January 26, 2012[18] | |
| December 22, 2011[19] | |
| December 1, 2011[20] | |
Sabato's Crystal Ball
The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012, detailing the eight races in the Senate in 2012 that would decide the political fate of which party ended up with control in 2013.[21] The seat rated a toss-up that Sabato's Crystal Ball believed was most likely to depend on the outcome of the Presidential election in November was the Senate seat in Nevada.[21] According to the article, "the size of the Hispanic vote in Nevada come November may be more of a deciding factor in this contest than any SuperPAC."[21]
Polls
Shelley Berkley vs. Dean Heller
| Shelley Berkley vs. Dean Heller | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Shelley Berkley | Dean Heller | Neither | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Project New America/US Action (October 27-28, 2012) | 43% | 44% | 0% | 0% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Rassmussen Reports (October 25, 2012) | 45% | 50% | 1% | 4% | +/-4.5 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Las Vegas Review Journal (October 10-15, 2012) | 40% | 46% | 8% | 6% | +/-3.5 | 806 | |||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (October 15, 2012) | 43% | 50% | 4% | 3% | +/-4.5 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (July 24, 2012) | 42% | 51% | 2% | 5% | +/-4.5 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 42.6% | 48.2% | 3% | 3.6% | +/-4.28 | 561.2 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Campaign contributions
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.
Shelley Berkeley
| Shelley Berkeley[22] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[23] | April 13, 2012 | $375,908.42 | $1,364,052.11 | $(715,583.42) | $4,407,777.11 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[24] | May 31, 2012 | $440,777.16 | $651,961.34 | $(944,024.72) | $4,115,713.78 | ||||
| July Quarterly[25] | July 13, 2012 | $4,115,713.78 | $898,067.71 | $(985,914.74) | $4,027,866.75 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $2,914,081.16 | $(2,645,522.88) | ||||||||
Dean Heller
| Dean Heller[26] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[27] | April 14, 2012 | $365,076.55 | $1,076,057.26 | $(460,763.06) | $4,268,370.75 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[28] | May 26, 2012 | $4,268,370.75 | $443,095.76 | $(446,645.10) | $4,264,821.41 | ||||
| July Quarterly[29] | July 14, 2012 | $4,264,821.41 | $771,291.85 | $(586,306.50) | $4,449,806.76 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $2,290,444.87 | $(1,493,714.66) | ||||||||
Election history
2010
On November 2, 2010, Harry Reid won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Sharron Angle (R), None of the Above, Scott Ashjian (Tea Party), Timothy Fasano (Independent American), and independent candidates Michael L. Haines, Jesse Holland, Jeffery C. Reeves, and Wil Stand.[30]
| United States Senate Nevada General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Harry Reid Incumbent |
50.3% | 362,785 | |
| Republican | Sharron Angle | 44.5% | 321,361 | |
| None of the Above | - | 2.2% | 16,174 | |
| Tea Party | Scott Ashjian | 0.8% | 5,811 | |
| Independent | Michael L. Haines | 0.6% | 4,261 | |
| Independent American | Timothy Fasano | 0.4% | 3,185 | |
| Independent | Jesse Holland | 0.4% | 3,175 | |
| Independent | Jeffery C. Reeves | 0.3% | 2,510 | |
| Independent | Wil Stand | 0.3% | 2,119 | |
| Total Votes | 721,381 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada, 2012
- United States Senate elections, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Nevada"
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Important Election Dates," accessed July 26, 2012
- ↑ The Hill, "Opinion: Republicans facing longer odds in bid to gain Senate control," October 8, 2012
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Roll Call, "Nevada Poll Finds Shelley Berkley, Dean Heller Tied in Senate Race," accessed January 6, 2012
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 Nevada Secretary of State Homepage, "Candidate Filings 2012" March 17, 2012
- ↑ Las Vegas Sun, "Perennial candidate Edward Hamilton announces third Senate attempt," accessed January 6, 2012
- ↑ Associated Press, "Campaign 2012" June 13, 2012
- ↑ The New York Times, "2012 Ratings Senate," accessed September 17, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011 (dead link)
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," September 13, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 21, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 21.2 Center for Politics, "Tilting the Toss Ups – the Eight Races That Will Decide the Senate" accessed April 9, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "Shelley Berkeley Summary Reports" accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "April Quarterly" accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "Pre-Primary" accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "July Quarterly" accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "Dean Heller Summary Reports" accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "April Quarterly" accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "Pre-Primary" accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reprots, "July Quarterly" accessed August 20, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
