United States Senate elections in Pennsylvania, 2012
 Pennsylvania's 2012 elections: • U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Attorney General • Other executive offices • State Senate • State House |
 |
| |
Bob Casey, Jr.  |
Bob Casey, Jr. |
 |
Lean D (Prior to election) |
| |
| |
 |
Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. (D) won re-election on November 6, 2012.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
| |
|
|
Primary: Pennsylvania has a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by March 25. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 7.[2]
- See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2012
Incumbent: The election will fill the Class 1 Senate seat, which is currently held by Bob Casey, Jr. (D). First elected in 2006, Casey ran for re-election in 2012, and won.
Election results
| U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, General Election, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic |  Bob Casey, Jr. Incumbent |
53.7% | 3,021,364 | |
| Republican | Tom Smith | 44.6% | 2,509,132 | |
| Libertarian | Rayburn Douglas Smith | 1.7% | 96,926 | |
| Total Votes | 5,627,422 | |||
| Source: Pennsylvania Department of State | ||||
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.
General election candidates
April 24, 2012 primary results
|
|
|
Race background
Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. ran for re-election in 2012. Casey was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006, when he unseated future Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum. Casey has enjoyed high approval ratings throughout his first term in Congress. His popularity has withstood the impact of fluctuations in President Obama's standing within the party, and his conservative positions on issues like gun control and abortion lend him cross-over appeal from Independents and Republicans, as indicated by polling data heading into November's general election.[8]
Casey was unopposed in the Democratic primary election on April 24, but faced two challengers in the general election, including Republican businessman Tom Smith.[9] Smith defeated a handful of candidates for his party's nomination in the primary, and is estimated to pose a modest threat to Casey's re-election. Smith ran a well-funded campaign highlighted by a series of TV spots criticizing Casey's record on economic stimulus and job creation, and Smith both out-raised and out-spent Casey in the third campaign finance quarter.[10] In early October, Smith's momentum looked to be either gaining or diminishing, due to contradicting polls and race projections. The Cook Political Report down-shifted its rating from likely Democratic to leaning Democratic in October and a poll from Muhlenberg College showed Casey's lead narrowing to two points over Smith.[11] Almost simultaneously, a Public Policy Poll was released showing Casey ahead 50-39, the widest margin seen since August.[8]
Libertarian Rayburn Smith also ran for the U.S. Senate seat in the November 6, 2012 general election.[12]
Primary Results
Republican Primary
| U.S. Senate-Pennsylvania Republican Primary, 2012 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|
Tom Smith |
39.5% | 299,726 |
| Sam Rohrer | 22.3% | 169,118 |
| John Marc Scaringi | 6.8% | 51,908 |
| David Christian | 10.5% | 79,581 |
| Steve Welch | 20.9% | 158,181 |
| Total Votes | 758,514 | |
Cook Political Report
Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations: [13]
|
Solid Democratic
|
Tossup |
Lean Republican
|
| Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Pennsylvania Senate | |
|---|---|
| Month | Rating |
| October 4, 2012[14] | |
| August 17, 2012[15] | |
| July 12, 2012[16] | |
| May 31, 2012[17] | |
| May 10, 2012[18] | |
| March 22, 2012[19] | |
| March 1, 2012[20] | |
| January 26, 2012[21] | |
| December 22, 2011[22] | |
| December 1, 2011[23] | |
In August, 2012, The Cook Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the Senate race as likely Democratic.[24]
2012 General Election
October-present
| Pennsylvania's Senate Election, 2012 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Siena College Research Institute Poll (October 1-5, 2012) | Susquehanna Poll October 4-6, 2012) | The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College (October 10-14, 2012) | Public Policy Polling (October 12-14, 2012) | Muhlenberg College (October 17-21, 2012) | Rasmussen Reports Poll (October 24, 2012) | Harstad Strategic Research/DSCC Poll (October 21-24, 2012) | Philadelphia Inquirer Poll (October 23-25, 2012) | Franklin & Marshall Poll (October 23-28, 2012) | Public Policy Poll (November 2-3, 2012) | Average | |||
| Bob Casey (D) | 44% | 46% | 41% | 50% | 42% | 46% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 52% | 46.8% | |||
| Tom Smith (R) | 35% | 44% | 39% | 39% | 34% | 45% | 40% | 42% | 35% | 44% | 39.7% | |||
| Undecided | 16% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 22% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 14% | 3% | 11.9% | |||
| Number polled | 545 | 725 | 438 | 500 | 444 | 500 | 810 | 600 | 849 | 541.1 | ||||
| Margin of error | +/-4.2 | +/-3.7% | +/-5.0% | +/-4.4% | +/-5.0% | +/-4.5% | +/-3.5% | +/-4.0% | +/-3.4% | +/-3.5% | 4.12% | |||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
July-September
| Pennsylvania's Senate Election, 2012 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Rasmussen Reports Poll (July 18, 2012) | Public Policy Polling (July 21-23, 2012) | Quinnipiac University Poll (July 24-30, 2012) | Franklin & Marshall College Poll (August 7-12, 2012) | Rasmussen Reports Poll (September 29, 2012) | Quinnipiac University Poll September 18-24 | Average | |||||||
| Bob Casey (D) | 49% | 46% | 55% | 35% | 49% | 49% | 47.17% | |||||||
| Tom Smith (R) | 38% | 36% | 37% | 23% | 42% | 43% | 36.5% | |||||||
| Undecided | 9% | 18% | 8% | 39% | 7% | 8% | 14.833% | |||||||
| Number polled | 500 | 758 | 1,168 | 681 | 500 | 1,180 | 797.83 | |||||||
| Margin of error | +/-4.5 | +/-3.56% | +/-2.9% | +/-3.8% | +/-4.5% | +/-2.9% | 3.69% | |||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
**The September 19th Rasmussen Poll reported 2% of surveyed likely voters favored another candidate in the race.**
Bob Casey
Casey's 2012 re-election campaign was endorsed by:
- The Philadelphia Inquirer
- The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.[25]
Tom Smith
Smith's 2012 bid for Senate was endorsed by:
- The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
- Governor Tom Ridge.[26]
General Election candidates
| Bob Casey, Jr. Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| Pre-Primary Report[27] | April 12, 2012 | $0 | $1,367,060.78 | $(560,037.07) | $5,268,118.34 | ||||
| July Quarterly[28] | July 15, 2012 | $5,268,118.34 | $1,437,519.66 | $(505,773.93) | $6,226,560.41 | ||||
| October Quarterly[29] | October 15, 2012 | $6,226,560.41 | $1,517,483 | $(2,536,892.70) | $5,207,150.97 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $4,322,063.44 | $(3,602,703.7) | ||||||||
| Tom Smith Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| Pre-Primary Report[30] | April 12, 2012 | $0 | $443,860.49 | $(2,971,041.39) | $1,960,443.54 | ||||
| July Quarterly[31] | July 15, 2012 | $1,960,443.54 | $703,315.46 | $(1,891,594.97) | $2,280,655.41 | ||||
| October Quarterly[32] | October 15, 2012 | $2,280,655.41 | $11,646,789.87 | $(6,834,954.70) | $7,092,490.58 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $12,793,965.82 | $(11,697,591.06) | ||||||||
| Contents |
|---|
| 1 Campaign sites |
| 2 Campaign advertisements |
| 2.1 Bob Casey ads |
| 2.2 Tom Smith ads |
| 2.3 PAC ads |
Campaign websites
Tom Smith |
Bob Casey |
Rayburn Smith
Advertisements
The following is a selection of audio and video for some of the U.S. Senate candidates. Some were released by candidates, others by PACs or local media.
Bob Casey
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tom Smith
|
|
|
|
|
|
PAC ads
|
2010
On November 2, 2010, Pat Toomey won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Joe Sestak in the general election.[33]
| U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Pat Toomey |
51% | 2,028,945 | |
| Democrat | Joe Sestak | 49% | 1,948,716 | |
| Total Votes | 3,977,661 | |||
2006
On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr. won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Rick Santorum in the general election.[34]
| U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2006 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democrat | Bob Casey, Jr. |
58.7% | 2,392,984 | |
| Republican | Rick Santorum | 41.3% | 1,684,778 | |
| Total Votes | 4,077,762 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2012
- United States Senate elections, 2012
External links
Tom Smith |
Bob Casey |
Rayburn Smith |
References
- ↑ ABC News "2012 General Election Results"
- ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State "Registration Deadlines," Accessed June 28, 2012
- ↑ Morning Call "Mellow Casey has to up profile for re-election," Accessed January 6, 2012
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Essential Public Radio "Senate, Congressional Races in Southwestern Pennsylvania On Primary Day," April 24, 2012
- ↑ Pike County Republican Committee "David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race," Accessed January 6, 2012
- ↑ Philadelphia Inquirer "Sam Rohrer seeking Pa. GOP nomination for U.S. Senate," Accessed February 18, 2012
- ↑ Politics PA "Cummings Drops Out of Senate Race, Endorses Burns," Accessed February 18, 2012
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Public Policy Poll, "Obama and Casey lead in Pennsylvania," October 15, 2012
- ↑ Pennsylvania Independent "Incumbents fall in PA House, congressional races," April 24, 2012
- ↑ Tom Smith for Senate Press Release, "Smith outraises Casey, more cash on hand," October 15, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "Senate: Race Ratings," October 4, 2012
- ↑ PA Department of State 2012 Official Primary Results
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," Accessed December 12, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 17, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
- ↑ Center for Politics, "Sabato's Crystal Ball 2012 Senate race ratings," August 28, 2012
- ↑ Bob Casey Official Campaign Website, "News," accessed October 16, 2012
- ↑ Tom Smith for Senate News, "Governor Tom Ridge endorses Tom Smith," Accessed October 16, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Bob Casey for Senate Reports," April 12, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Bob Casey for Senate Reports," July 13, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Bob Casey October Quarterly Report," October 15, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Tom Smith for Senate Reports," April 12, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Tom Smith for Senate Reports," July 13, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Tom Smith October Quarterly Report," October 15, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006"
| |||||||||||||
