Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Special Edition 9 (August 8, 2018)
In this special post-primary edition: Kobach leads Colyer by 191 votes with ballots still outstanding, Trump-backed John James wins Michigan Senate primary, and state AG Bill Schuette beats incumbent-endorsed Calley in Michigan governor primary.
Here are the results of the Aug. 7 primaries so far.
Kansas
Kobach leads Colyer by less than 200 votes
Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) narrowly leads incumbent Jeff Colyer (R) in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Kobach, who was endorsed by President Trump (R) Monday, received 40.6 percent of the vote to Colyer’s 40.5 percent, with only 191 votes separating the two.
The preliminary vote total does not include provisional ballots, some hand-counted paper ballots, and mail-in ballots, which will be counted as long as they were postmarked by the day of the election and received before Friday. Because Kobach’s margin of victory was within 0.5 percent, Colyer may request a state-funded recount in any number of counties.
Colyer became governor in January 2018 following the resignation of Sam Brownback (R) to serve as U.S. Ambassador-at-large for International Religious Freedom. Colyer was elected as lieutenant governor on a ticket with Brownback in 2010 and re-elected in 2014. His backers include the National Rifle Association, state Senate Vice President Jeff Longbine (R), and former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R).
Kobach, who is serving his second term as secretary of state, previously served as state party chairman. In addition to his Trump endorsement, Kobach also had support from Gun Owners of America, and state Senate President Susan Wagle (R).
The winner of the primary faces Democratic nominee state Sen. Laura Kelly (D), and businessman Greg Orman (I) in the November general election.
Five state House Republicans who voted to repeal Brownback tax cuts lose primaries
The Republican state House faction supportive of former Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) 2012 tax cuts saw a surge last night. They defeated at least five incumbents who voted to repeal the tax cuts in 2017 while only losing one of their own incumbents.
Anti-tax cut Rep. Steve Becker could join the list of defeated incumbents. His primary against pro-tax cut Paul Waggoner is too close to call.
When accounting for incumbent defeats and open seats, pro-tax cut Republicans boosted their membership from 38 members (45 percent of the 85-member House GOP caucus) to at least 42 members (49 percent).
Anti-tax cut Republicans saw their membership decline from 41 members (48 percent of the caucus) to 33 members (39 percent).
Members without a clear faction rose from six members to nine members.
These numbers could change depending on Republican performance in the 2018 general elections.
Watkins wins in KS-2
Army veteran and engineer Steve Watkins (R) defeated state Sens. Caryn Tyson (R), Steve Fitzgerald (R) and four other candidates in the Republican primary for Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District.
Watkins led the Republican field in fundraising with $640,000, including $475,000 in loans made by the candidate. Watkins also had support from a group his father founded called Kansans Can Do Anything, as well as the With Honor Fund.
Watkins faced criticism for reportedly attending a meeting at the Shawnee Democratic Party headquarters in 2017 to discuss running as a Democrat. Watkins denied the charge, saying he met with the party's vice chair to discuss policy.
He faces former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis (D) in the general election.
Schwab wins GOP nod for secretary of state
State Rep. Scott Schwab won the GOP nomination for secretary of state.
While Schwab agrees with outgoing incumbent Kris Kobach’s policies on voting, such as requiring proof of citizenship to register, Schwab said Kobach created distractions by involving himself in high-profile lawsuits and co-chairing President Donald Trump’s Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity.
Attorney Dennis Taylor was the only candidate to criticize Kobach’s tenure and said he would not appeal a June 2018 federal court ruling that struck down the proof of citizenship requirement.
The three other candidates—activist Randy Duncan, former Kobach employee Craig McCullah, and state Rep. Keith Esau—all supported Kobach’s voting policies.
Michigan
Schuette wins Republican gubernatorial nomination
Attorney General Bill Schuette defeated Lt. Gov. Brian Calley to claim the Republican gubernatorial nomination. With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Schuette had 50.8 percent of the vote to Calley’s 25.1 percent. State Sen. Patrick Colbeck received 13 percent.
President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence supported Schuette, while outgoing Gov. Rick Snyder backed Calley and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz endorsed Colbeck.
Schuette faces former state Sen. Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer in the general election, which forecasters call a “toss-up.”
Trump-backed James defeats Pensler in Senate primary
Army veteran John James (R) defeated venture capitalist Sandy Pensler (R) in Michigan’s GOP Senate primary.
President Donald Trump (R) endorsed James a week before the election. James also had endorsements from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Reps. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) and Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.).
Pensler had the fundraising advantage, having contributed $5 million to his own campaign through the second quarter.
James faces incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, in November.
Epstein wins five-candidate primary in MI-11
Businesswoman Lena Epstein won the Republican primary in Michigan’s 11th District and will be the party’s nominee to replace retiring U.S. Rep. David Trott (R) in the suburban Detroit district.
Epstein was a Michigan co-chair of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. She loaned her campaign nearly $1 million and campaigned on her support for the president.
She beat four Republicans, including state Rep. Mike Kowall, the choice of local Republican leaders, and Kerry Bentivolio, the district’s incumbent before Trott.
Epstein will face Haley Stevens (D) in the general election, which election forecasters call a “toss-up.”
Special guest analysis: Sleeper GOP primary in Minnesota's CD1?
Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.
Republican-endorsed Jim Hagedorn is running for the third time to win southeastern Minnesota’s 1st District Congressional seat, and is favored to win the Aug. 14 GOP primary against state Senator Carla Nelson. Hagedorn almost defeated Democratic (DFL) incumbent Rep. Tim Walz in 2016, and since Walz has retired to run for governor this year, it is an open seat in this generally conservative district—and considered one of the few strong GOP pickup opportunities in the nation. Although Hagedorn is better-known, and his father was once the district’s congressman, Sen. Nelson is waging a belated, but energetic campaign to upset the party-endorsed Hagedorn. She has received endorsements from the Susan B. Anthony List and its PAC, as well as the National Rifle Association, and is well-known in the Rochester-area district which she represents. Without the party endorsement, and not well-known in the eastern part of MN-1, she remains the underdog, but her aggressive campaign and her endorsements have at least created some suspense about the outcome Aug. 14.
Up next: Hawaii primaries Saturday, Aug. 11, followed by Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin Tuesday, Aug. 14. Top stories to watch include...
- Wisconsin's U.S. Senate primary features Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and state Republican Party backing Leah Vukmir (R), Club for Growth and FreedomWorks backing Kevin Nicholson (R).
- Tim Pawlenty (R) tries to reclaim the Minnesota gov. nomination but faces another former nominee in Jeff Johnson (R).
- Connecticut Republicans will choose a nominee they hope can win back the governor's seat.
