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United States Senate election in Wisconsin (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)

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U.S. Senate, Wisconsin
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Tammy Baldwin (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Wisconsin
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Wisconsin
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Wisconsin elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

State Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) defeated Marine Corps veteran Kevin Nicholson (R) in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin on August 14, 2018. The race centered on party loyalty and featured million-dollar ad campaigns from satellite groups.

Vukmir had the support of national and state party leaders, earning endorsements from House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), more than 50 state legislators and officials, and the Republican Party of Wisconsin at its convention in May. She was called a consistent conservative in an ad from the party highlighting its endorsement.[1][2]

Nicholson's campaign messaging focused on his service in the military and outsider status. Conservative groups Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, and the Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund backed Nicholson. FreedomWorks highlighted Nicholson's potential opposition to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in its statement of support.[3]

Both candidates had seven-figure support from satellite groups: Richard Uihlein contributed $2 million to Solutions for Wisconsin in 2017 to encourage Nicholson to run.[4] Another group funded primarily by Uihlein, Restoration PAC, spent $4 million on the race through July.[5] The pro-Vukmir Wisconsin Next PAC, funded mainly by Diane Hendricks, spent $2.5 million on the primary.[6][7] Altogether, satellite groups spent more than $12 million on the race.[8]

Throughout the race, the candidates relied on credentials and personality more than policy to distinguish themselves.[9][10] An issue frequently raised was loyalty to the Republican Party and President Donald Trump (R). Nicholson, a former president of the College Democrats of America, was criticized for a late conversion to conservatism following his service in the military. Restoration PAC launched a six-figure ad buy in April to challenge this narrative, comparing his political transformation to that of President Ronald Reagan's.[11]

Although both Nicholson and Vukmir expressed support for the Trump administration's agenda, Nicholson called Vukmir a Trump opponent. He referred to Vukmir's comment that Trump was offensive to everyone during an event in 2016. Her campaign responded that Vukmir recorded an ad for Trump during his presidential campaign.[12]

Three other candidates ran: Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, and George Lucia.


Wisconsin voter? Here's what you need to know.
Primary electionAugust 14, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineJune 1, 2018
Registration deadlineAugust 14, 2018[13]
Absentee application deadlineAugust 9, 2018, at 5pm CT (by mail), August 10, 2018, at 5pm CT (in person)[14]
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Early voting deadlineGo to this page for more information about early voting in Wisconsin.
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

Leah Vukmir defeated Kevin Nicholson, George Lucia, Griffin Jones, and Charles Barman in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Wisconsin on August 14, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Wisconsin

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Leah Vukmir
Leah Vukmir
 
48.9
 
217,230
Image of Kevin Nicholson
Kevin Nicholson
 
43.1
 
191,276
Image of George Lucia
George Lucia
 
4.2
 
18,786
Image of Griffin Jones
Griffin Jones
 
2.0
 
8,699
Image of Charles Barman
Charles Barman
 
1.8
 
7,959

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 443,950
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Top candidates

The candidates below had either led in polls, received support from U.S. elected officials, or been mentioned by media coverage as top contenders. They are listed in alphabetical order.

Republican Party Kevin Nicholson (R)

Kevin Nicholson.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Nicholson is a Marine Corps veteran who served combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan between 2007 and 2009. After returning to the United States, he received master's degrees in public and business administration from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and Dartmouth Tuck School of Business.[15] Nicholson has also worked as a management consultant for financial firms and other companies.[16]

Once the president of the College Democrats of America, Nicholson said of his political evolution, "I used to do nothing and know everything. But since then we’ve had three kids, I fought in two wars, and I worked in businesses around the world–and after you’ve been hit in the face with that much reality, you cannot help but become a strong conservative.”[17]

He was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Club for Growth PAC. Nicholson listed taxes, deficit reduction, national security, and anti-abortion policies as priorities.[18]

Republican Party Leah Vukmir (R)

Leah Vuk.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Vukmir was first elected to the Wisconsin State Senate in 2010, representing District 5. She also served in the Wisconsin State Assembly, representing District 14, from 2003 to 2010. Before entering public service, she earned her master's degree from the University of Wisconsin–Madison and worked as a nurse.[19]

"When I look at the issues that are facing our country right now and when I look at the razor-thin margin of votes in the U.S. Senate it would be great to have somebody in there who you know right away on day one, will be able to stand up for the conservative principles that will make a difference. There's no question with what you get with me," Vukmir said when announcing her candidacy for Senate.[20]

She was endorsed by the Republican Party of Wisconsin, the National Rifle Association, and Wisconsin First Lady Tonette Walker (R).

Campaign themes and policy stances

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites, if available.

Republican Party Kevin Nicholson

“

Taxes & Spending Kevin knows we can’t tax, spend, or borrow our way to prosperity. The federal government’s debt and deficit is immoral – and our tax code is unfair and uncompetitive. Worst of all, our reckless fiscal policies are crushing job creation.

Kevin will rein in wasteful spending to cut our deficit, reform entitlements to reduce our debt, and overhaul taxes and regulations to unleash economic growth. To start, Kevin knows we should give more power back to the states, deploy more market-based reforms, and ensure that the federal government operates with a balanced budget. And on taxes, Kevin knows the tax code needs to be fairer, flatter, and lower for job creators, capital investors, and families.

National Security As a decorated Marine who served in combat in both Iraq and Afghanistan, Kevin knows what it takes to keep America safe. In the United States Senate, Kevin will work to take on radical Islamic terrorism and defeat ISIS.

Kevin will strengthen our military, make sure we don’t allow foreign actors to cross red lines, and support our troops – both when they’re serving abroad and after they come home.

Furthermore, Kevin wholeheartedly agrees that the greatest threat to our national security is our fast-growing national debt. Our nation must be able to pay its bills in order to keep its citizens safe.

Wisconsin Values Kevin risked his life to protect our Wisconsin values. He is pro-life and a defender of the 2nd Amendment.

Kevin and his wife welcomed the first of their three children the same day President George W. Bush announced the “troop surge” in Iraq. He deployed soon after to Al Anbar province. In both Iraq and Afghanistan, Kevin saw innocent lives lost. Kevin values life because he knows firsthand how precious it is.

As a Marine veteran and a gun owner, Kevin strongly supports the 2nd Amendment. Kevin will protect the rights of Wisconsin citizens to own and carry firearms.[21]

”
—Kevin Nicholson for Senate[22]

Republican Party Leah Vukmir

“

Our Troops Leah Vukmir is a blue star mother. Her son Nicholas is currently serving our country as a Lieutenant in the United States Army. Leah knows that how we treat our bravest reflects on our character as a nation.

She was appalled to learn of the widespread mismanagement and disgraceful neglect that has taken place at Veterans Affairs and angered by the way Senator Tammy Baldwin failed our veterans at Tomah.

Protect Life As a nurse, whose primary mission is to save lives, Leah’s unwavering stance in protecting the sanctity of life is commonsense. Leah is pro-life. She has maintained a perfect voting record with Pro-Life Wisconsin and Wisconsin Right to Life and is proud to stand up for the unborn.

In the Senate, she will vote to confirm pro-life judges and believes that liberal elites in Washington want to impose a value system on the rest of the country that leaves little or no room for faith. Leah will fight efforts to restrict religious liberty and will stand against efforts by Congress to limit First Amendment protections of those who worship.

She attends Annuciation Greek Orthodox Church in Wauwatosa.

The Second Amendment Leah is 100% pro-gun. She received an A rating for her pro-gun record in the Wisconsin State Senate. Leah opposes expanded federal regulation of gun ownership. In the Senate, she would oppose efforts to start a federal gun registry.

Homeland Security The threat from radical Islamic jihadists and ISIS is clear. They want to kill us, and they are not going to stop until we confront them. There is a war going on, and as we’ve seen here in America and across the world, ISIS is targeting innocent civilians in its attacks. Leah supports using any means necessary to wipe ISIS from the face of the earth.

President Obama weakened America’s standing across the globe when he called ISIS the “JV team” and refused to enforce a red line drawn in Syria after Bashar Al-Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. Leah believes our leaders must project strength and be prepared to back it up with smart military force if necessary. Our enemies need to know that if you attack the United States or its civilians, we will respond.

Law and Order President Trump talked a lot about law and order during the campaign, and Leah Vukmir agrees this is a critical issue. We must make sure our police officers have the equipment and tools they need to combat violent criminals and keep our communities safe. Leah has introduced multiple pieces of legislation to toughen penalties for violent criminals because she believes we need to send a message to repeat felons that their behavior will not be tolerated.

Those that keep Americans safe at home are our brave first responders – our police and firefighters. Leah stands with their efforts to keep us safe and believes the unfair attacks on police officers specifically by the fringe left need to stop. Police officers deserve our praise and thanks, not protests and attacks.

Immigration We are either a nation of laws or we are not. Leah Vukmir’s father was an immigrant from Greece. Her mother’s parents were immigrants as well. Both families came the right way – legally.

In the U.S. Senate, Leah Vukmir will support construction of a wall on the southern border and efforts to crack down on illegal immigration in the United States. Leah also opposes sanctuary cities in Wisconsin.

The Constitution Leah believes our rights come from God, not man. The government exists to enforce our freedoms and protect our rights, not to create new entitlements not specifically enumerated in the Constitution.

If elected, Leah will swear an oath to uphold and protect the Constitution of the United States, and she pledges to always refer to the intention of our founders when deciding how to vote.

Taxes and Spending It’s not just that Congress spends too much – Congress is addicted to spending our money. Leah Vukmir is a conservative who believes that if hard-working Wisconsinites have to balance a checkbook, Congress should too. Leah supports a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution for this very reason.

To pay for all this spending, Congress has created a complicated federal tax code. Thousands of pages long and burdensome for many Americans, Leah believes we must streamline the tax code by eliminating loopholes and deductions, while lowering tax rates for all Americans.

Finally, smaller companies pay one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world. Taxation of this magnitude negatively impacts our ability to remain competitive and keep our workforce in the United States. In the Senate, Leah will push for a tax code that is simplified, increases competition with other nations, and benefits all Americans.

Repeal Obamacare Leah understands why people are upset with Republicans who promised to repeal Obamacare and didn’t deliver. She supports full repeal of Obamacare. Period. And she won’t stop pushing for full repeal in Congress.

Leah supports replacing Obamacare with free-market solutions that will lower costs and premiums. For example, Leah would allow insurers to offer a wider variety of plans that fit the demands of patients and families, not government central planners. And she would support allowing individuals to buy insurance across state lines, increasing competition and choice.

Finally, Leah knows from her experience dealing with Wisconsin’s Medicaid program that states truly are laboratories of innovation, which is what our founders intended. Leah supports more flexibility for states when it comes to Medicaid spending, and would support efforts to send Medicaid dollars to states in the form of a block grant – allowing states more flexibility to design their own plans and save taxpayers billions of dollars.[21]

”
—Leah Vukmir for Senate[23]

Abortion

  • Nicholson said he would consider anti-abortion legislation that provided exceptions for rape, incest, or to protect the mother's life if it would "appreciably saves human lives." Vukmir supports a ban on abortion without exception.[24]

Debates and forums

July 26, 2018, debate

Nicholson and Vukmir attended a debate hosted by Today's TMJ4 and the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee on July 26, 2018. They discussed their credentials, healthcare, and abortion, among other issues.

  • Find the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Wisconsin Public Radio round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the WTMJ round-up of the debate here.
Wisconsin Senate Republican debate, July 26, 2018

May 31, 2018, candidate forum

Nicholson and Vukmir participated in a candidate forum hosted by the Republican Women of Dane County on May 31, 2018, where they discussed consumer choice, healthcare spending, and school safety, among other issues.

  • Find the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Wisconsin Public Radio round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Wisconsin State Journal round-up of the debate here.

April 26, 2018, debate

Nicholson and Vukmir participated in a debate on April 26, 2018, hosted by Americans for Prosperity. The candidates discussed tax regulations, healthcare, services for veterans, and conservative values.[25]

  • Find the Associated Press round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Wisconsin State Journal round-up of the debate here.
First Wisconsin Senate Republican debate, April 26, 2018

Endorsements

Kevin Nicholson

Federal officials

Organizations

Notable party members


Leah Vukmir

Federal officials

State officials

Notable party members

Organizations


Campaign tactics and strategies

Vukmir's comments about Trump

In July 2018, Nicholson criticized Vukmir for a March 2016 interview where she made comments critical of then-candidate Donald Trump. She said, "He’s offensive to women. He’s offensive to men. He’s offensive to little people. He’s offensive to fat people. He’s offensive to everyone." Vukmir voted for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in the Republican presidential primary in Wisconsin, but later participated in a women's group supporting Trump during the general election.[44]

Nicholson said in a statement, "The people who Donald Trump really offends are the establishment politicians like Leah Vukmir who only support the president when it’s easy or politically convenient. This is why voters don’t trust the political class — they are hypocrites, pure and simple. Leah’s own words against President Trump prove she’s long been a Trump opponent, and it is important that Wisconsin Republicans know the truth.”[44]

The Vukmir campaign responded, "This is a ridiculous discussion considering Kevin Nicholson did nothing to help President Trump in 2016, sided with Steve Bannon against President Trump in 2017 and in 2018 is working with the very same consultants who directed leading campaigns against President Trump."[44]

Nicholson's previous Democratic affiliation

Nicholson was elected the president of the College Democrats of America in 1999 and spoke at the Democratic National Convention in 2000. He was registered as a Democrat in North Carolina from 2005 to 2010. Nicholson said his political conversion from Democrat to Republican was cemented during a military tour in Iraq, and that upon his return to the United States in 2007, he supported the presidential campaign of Sen. John McCain (R).[45][46]

When endorsing Vukmir, former Trump White House chief of staff Reince Priebus questioned Nicholson's commitment to the party. "When you go from president of the College Democrats to wanting to be the U.S. Senator for the Republican Party, I think there should be some in-between time," Priebus said.[47]

"I’ve said a million times, my whole life’s an evolution, I get more conservative with everything I’ve done, from my service in the Marine Corps to my time in business to having three kids," said Nicholson in January 2018.[48]

Unity pledge and allegations of disrespectful conduct

In January 2018, Nicholson and Vukmir signed a unity pledge agreeing to support the Republican nominee and to campaign in a way that was respectful of other Republican candidates.

Nicholson released a memo in April 2018 alleging that Vukmir was relying too much on support from "party insiders and establishment figures," who had not given his candidacy a chance.[49]

When asked if Nicholson had violated the pledge, Vukmir campaign manager Jess Ward said in a statement that Nicholson had “insulted all Republicans who put their heart and soul into electing Scott Walker and Leah Vukmir and passing conservative reforms. He should focus on unifying the party rather than whining about his lack of grassroots support.”[49]

Nicholson criticizes House Speaker Ryan in audio recording

In audio obtained by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel during an event in October 2017, Nicholson called House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)'s lack of support for President Donald Trump a problem. He added that Ryan "has a light footprint in" Wisconsin. On November 1, 2017, Nicholson expressed his support for Ryan in an interview and called the story "an attempt to create media controversy where there should be none."[50]

U.S Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.) defended Ryan in a statement on November 2, 2017. He said, "The victories of 2016 would not have been possible without Paul’s tireless efforts, and he will continue his work on behalf of all Wisconsinites in 2018 to ensure we elect another sound conservative Senator. Any candidate seeking that office would benefit greatly from Paul's experience and leadership."[50]

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Kevin Nicholson

Support
"New Kind of Leader" - Restoration PAC ad, released July 25, 2018
"Future" - Nicholson for Senate ad, released July 18, 2018
"Outsider" - Club for Growth ad, released July 11, 2018
"Like Reagan" - Restoration PAC ad, released April 20, 2018
"Marine, Outsider, Conservative" - Nicholson ad, released August 9, 2017
Oppose
Wisconsin Next PAC ad, released July 27, 2018
"Consistent Conservative" - Wisconsin Next PAC ad, released July 10, 2018

Republican Party Leah Vukmir

Support
"Duffy: Leah Vukmir Stands with President Trump" - Vukmir campaign ad, released August 6, 2018
"Flush" - Vukmir campaign ad, released July 23, 2018
"Threatened" - Vukmir campaign ad, released June 18, 2018
"The Wisconsin Way" - Wisconsin GOP ad, released May 21, 2018
"Endorsed" - Wisconsin Next PAC ad, released May 16, 2018
"Leader" - Wisconsin Next PAC ad, released April 5, 2018
Oppose
"Candid Camera" - Solutions for Wisconsin ad, released August 6, 2018
"Puzzle" - Club for Growth ad, released August 1, 2018
"Who" - Club for Growth ad, released July 12, 2018

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Tammy Baldwin Democratic Party $31,514,876 $31,549,383 $142,193 As of December 31, 2018
Charles Barman Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Griffin Jones Republican Party $10,318 $10,317 $0 As of August 24, 2018
George Lucia Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Kevin Nicholson Republican Party $3,893,750 $3,865,486 $28,266 As of December 31, 2018
Leah Vukmir Republican Party $5,852,699 $5,810,340 $42,360 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

  • The Bolton PAC, funded by former Bush administration U.N. ambassador John Bolton, made a $278,000 radio and television ad buy for Nicholson on March 19, 2018.[51] It previously announced a $1 million ad buy in support of Nicholson in January 2018.[52]
  • CFG Action Wisconsin spent $1.8 million on two ads in July, one supporting Nicholson and the other opposing Vukmir.[53]
  • Restoration PAC
    • In July, Restoration made a $750,000 ad buy presenting Nicholson as a "new kind of leader" for Wisconsin and highlighting his military experience.[54]
    • Restoration spent $200,000 on an ad buy for Nicholson in January 2018, bringing its total spent on the race to $1.5 million. The ad's narrator directly addresses Nicholson's previous Democratic affiliation, saying, "Like Reagan, a passionate convert to conservativism. Nobody is better suited to defeat ultra-liberal Tammy Baldwin.”[55]
  • Illinois billionaire Richard Uihlein was identified as the donor who had given the most to super PACs in the 2017-2018 election cycle, as of February 2018. Wisconsin was a primary target of his spending, including donating $2 million to a super PAC to encourage Nicholson to run.[56]
    • Barry Burden of the University of Wisconsin in Madison said, “No one had heard of Kevin Nicholson, but suddenly this gift was available. I doubt that Kevin Nicholson would be a candidate—at least not a serious one—if he didn’t have the Uihlein family backing.”[56]
    • The Nicholson campaign said in a statement, "As a combat Marine and a true outsider, Kevin Nicholson didn’t ask anyone’s permission to run for Senate. He has been grateful for the support he has received across the spectrum, from the 6000 grassroots Wisconsin donors to conservative leaders like Ted Cruz, Ambassador John Bolton and Mr. Uihlein."[56]
  • In January 2018, pro-Nicholson super PACs Club for Growth Action and Solutions for Wisconsin were reported to have $1.1 million earmarked for this race. Wisconsin Next PAC, which backed Vukmir's candidacy, reported having more than $1 million in cash on hand.[57]
    • Solutions for Wisconsin spent $912,000 on an ad buy in August 2018 highlighting critical comments Vukmir made about Trump during the 2016 presidential election.[58]
  • Wisconsin Next PAC spent $438,000 in July 2018 on an ad buy featuring footage of Nicholson speaking at the Democratic National Convention in 2000, saying "we care about a woman's right to choose."[59] The group spent another $500,000 on a similar ad highlighting Nicholson's previous support for Hillary Clinton.[60] In August 2018, the group made a $210,000 ad buy opposing Nicholson.[61]


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin, Republican primary
Poll Poll sponsor Nicholson VukmirScheissOther/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
NBC News/Marist Poll
July 15-19, 2018		N/A 38%28%0%34%+/-6.1355
Hodas & Associates
July 12-16, 2018		Restoration PAC 33%20%0%48%+/-3.0600
Marquette Law School
July 11-15, 2018		N/A 32%34%0%34%+/-7266
Marquette Law School
June 13-17, 2018		N/A 37%32%0%32%+/-6.9800
Hodas & Associates
June 7-12, 2018		Restoration PAC 28%14%0%58%+/-3.0600
WPA Intelligence
December 6-7, 2017		Nicholson for Senate 30%23%2%45%+/-3.11,004
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Timeline

  • August 9, 2018: The pro-Nicholson Solutions for Wisconsin spent $912,000 on an ad buy to highlight critical comments Vukmir made about Trump during the 2016 presidential election.[58]
  • July 17, 2018: The National Rifle Association endorsed Vukmir, highlighting her "consistent and proven voting record on Second Amendment issues in the Wisconsin Legislature" in a statement.[26]
  • June 7-12, 2018: Hodas & Associates conducted a poll of 600 likely primary voters on behalf of Restoration PAC. The poll found that 28 percent were planning on voting for Nicholson, 14 percent were planning on voting for Vukmir, and 58 percent were undecided.[63]
  • May 12, 2018: The Republican Party of Wisconsin endorsed Vukmir with 73 percent of delegates backing her at the party's state convention. The endorsement grants her access to party resources like field offices and donor lists. Nicholson received 27 percent support.[64]
  • April 20, 2018: Restoration PAC released an ad comparing Nicholson and his political turn from Republican to Democrat to President Ronald Reagan (R). The ad is part of a $1 million ad buy.[65]
  • April 13, 2018: In the first quarter of 2018, Nicholson raised $1 million and had more than $800,000 in cash on hand. Vukmir raised $600,000 over the same time period and had $650,000 in cash on hand.[66]
  • April 6, 2018: An internal poll from the Nicholson campaign showed him leading with 45 percent support over Vukmir's 27 percent. Undecided voters made up 28 percent of those surveyed.[67]
  • April 5, 2018: Wisconsin Next PAC released an ad highlighting Vukmir's opposition to unions as part of a $575,000 statewide ad buy and $50,000 digital campaign.[68]
  • March 19, 2018: The Bolton PAC, funded by former Bush administration U.N. ambassador John Bolton, announced a $278,000 radio and television ad buy for Nicholson.[51]
  • February 28, 2018: Vukmir agreed to a March 28 debate in Milwaukee with Nicholson. Nicholson said that he wanted six total in March and April.[69]
  • February 5, 2018: Nicholson's parents donated $2,700 each to Baldwin's campaign in December 2017, according to an FEC filing. "My parents have a different worldview than I do, and it is not surprising that they would support a candidate like Tammy Baldwin who shares their perspective," Nicholson responded.[70]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Likely Democratic Likely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Democratic Lean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely Democratic Likely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

State election history

2016

See also: United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2016

The race for Wisconsin's U.S. Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Incumbent Ron Johnson (R) defeated former Senator Russ Feingold (D) and Phil Anderson (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016.[71][72][73]

In a rematch of the 2010 election, Johnson defeated Feingold for a second time to retain his Senate seat. Johnson trailed in the polls for most of the election.[74][75] In the final weeks of the election, Johnson received funding from national Republicans. Johnson said, "I wish I would have had the cavalry show up in June, July, August when Feingold was using his little moneymaking machine to out resource me. I guess, better late than never."[75][74]

Feingold reacted to his loss by saying to supporters, “I didn’t expect this outcome, to be honest with you.” Commenting on his loss and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s, Feingold said, “I would urge you to be as restrained as you can be as the next steps occur...this could be one the most challenging times in the history of our country.”[76]

Johnson, who defeated Feingold by three percentage points, said in his victory speech, "I believe America has given us a chance, an opportunity to put this nation on the right path. It's exactly what I intend to do."[75]

U.S. Senate, Wisconsin General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRon Johnson Incumbent 50.2% 1,479,471
     Democratic Russ Feingold 46.8% 1,380,335
     Libertarian Phil Anderson 3% 87,531
     N/A Write-in 0% 8
Total Votes 2,947,345
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission


U.S. Senate, Wisconsin Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRuss Feingold 90.2% 303,791
Scott Harbach 9.8% 33,096
Total Votes 336,887
Source: Wisconsin Elections and Ethics Commission

2012

See also: United States Senate elections in Wisconsin, 2012

Tammy Baldwin won election to the U.S. Senate in 2012.

U.S. Senate, Wisconsin, General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTammy Baldwin 51.5% 1,547,104
     Republican Tommy Thompson 45.9% 1,380,126
     Libertarian Joseph Kexel 2.1% 62,240
     Independent Nimrod Allen III 0.5% 16,455
     N/A Write-ins 0% 113
Total Votes 3,006,038
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2012 Election Statistics"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Ron Johnson won election to the U.S. Senate. He defeated incumbent Russ Feingold (D), Rob Taylor (Constitution Party of Wisconsin), Ernest J. Pagels, Jr. (Write-in Republican) and Michael D. LaForest (Write-in Independent) in the general election.[77]

U.S. Senate, Wisconsin, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRon Johnson 51.9% 1,125,999
     Democratic Russell D. Feingold Incumbent 47% 1,020,958
     Constitution Rob Taylor 1.1% 23,473
     Write-in Ernest J. Pagels, Jr. 0% 134
     Write-in Michael D. LaForest 0% 129
     None Scattering 0% 638
Total Votes 2,171,331

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Wisconsin heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • Republicans held six of 11 state executive positions, while one position was held by a Democrat and four were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of Wisconsin was Republican Scott Walker.

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Wisconsin elections, 2018

Wisconsin held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Wisconsin
 WisconsinU.S.
Total population:5,767,891316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):54,1583,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:86.5%73.6%
Black/African American:6.3%12.6%
Asian:2.5%5.1%
Native American:0.9%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:6.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,357$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Wisconsin.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Wisconsin had a population of approximately 5,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Milwaukee (pop. est. 600,000), Madison (pop. est. 250,000), and Green Bay (pop. est. 110,000).[78][79]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Wisconsin every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Wisconsin 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 47.8% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 46.3% 1.5%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.8% Republican Party Mitt Romney 45.9% 6.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 56.2% Republican Party John McCain 42.3% 13.9%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 49.7% Republican Party George W. Bush 49.3% 0.4%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 47.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.6% 0.2%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Wisconsin 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Ron Johnson 50.2% Democratic Party Russ Feingold 46.8% 3.4%
2012 Democratic Party Tammy Baldwin 51.4% Republican Party Tommy Thompson 45.9% 5.5%
2010 Republican Party Ron Johnson 51.9% Democratic Party Russ Feingold 47.0% 4.9%
2006 Democratic Party Herb Kohl 67.3% Republican Party Robert Lorge 29.5% 37.8%
2004 Democratic Party Russ Feingold 55.3% Republican Party Tim Michels 44.1% 11.2%
2000 Democratic Party Herb Kohl 61.5% Republican Party John Gillespie 37.0% 24.5%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Wisconsin.

Election results (Governor), Wisconsin 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Scott Walker 52.3% Democratic Party Mary Burke 46.6% 5.7%
2010 Republican Party Scott Walker 52.3% Democratic Party Tom Barrett 46.5% 5.8%
2006 Democratic Party Jim Doyle 52.7% Republican Party Mark Green 45.3% 7.4%
2002 Democratic Party Jim Doyle 45.1% Republican Party Scott McCallum 41.4% 3.7%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Wisconsin 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2014 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2012 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2004 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% -
2002 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% -
2000 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Wisconsin Party Control: 1992-2025
Two years of Democratic trifectas  •  Ten years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate D R R R D D R D D D D R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ YouTube, "Endorsed," May 16, 2018
  2. ↑ YouTube, "The Wisconsin Way," May 21, 2018
  3. ↑ The Hill, "FreedomWorks backs Marine veteran in Wisconsin GOP Senate primary," October 10, 2017
  4. ↑ Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "GOP mega-donor Richard Uihlein backs Kevin Nicholson with $2 million to challenge Tammy Baldwin," April 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Politico, "Kemp crushes Cagle in GA-GOV GOP runoff," July 25, 2018
  6. ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "John Bolton group launches $1 million ad campaign backing GOP Senate candidate Kevin Nicholson," January 3, 2018
  7. ↑ NBC News,"It's another Primary Day. Here are seven storylines we're watching," August 14, 2018
  8. ↑ Politico, "GOP megadonors clash in 2018's costliest Senate primary," August 14, 2018
  9. ↑ The Cap Times, "Vukmir says credentials, not positions, are what set her apart from Nicholson," May 6, 2018
  10. ↑ Wisconsin Politics, "Vukmir, Nicholson back Trump, tout conservative credentials in U.S. Senate GOP primary debate," July 26, 2018
  11. ↑ Washington Examiner, "Backing Democrat-turned-Republican in Wisconsin, super PAC invokes Reagan," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Video from 2016 surfaces of Leah Vukmir saying Donald Trump was 'offensive to everyone,'" July 31, 2018
  13. ↑ Wisconsin Elections Commission, "Election Day registration," accessed February 2, 2018
  14. ↑ Wisconsin Elections Commission, "What are the deadlines for making an absentee ballot request?" accessed February 2, 2018
  15. ↑ Nicholson for Senate, "Meet Kevin," accessed February 22, 2018
  16. ↑ Wisconsin State Journal, "Kevin Nicholson discloses consulting clients, many of which were financial firms," February 3, 2018
  17. ↑ Wisconsin Radio Network, "Nicholson announces US Senate bid," July 26, 2017
  18. ↑ Nicholson for Senate, "Kevin on the Issues," accessed February 22, 2018
  19. ↑ Leah Vukmir for Senate, "Meet Leah," accessed February 22, 2018
  20. ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Leah Vukmir enters Republican U.S. Senate race in bid to unseat Democrat Tammy Baldwin," September 7, 2017
  21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  22. ↑ Kevin Nicholson for Senate, "Issues," accessed March 8, 2018
  23. ↑ Leah Vukmir for Senate, "Issues," accessed March 8, 2018
  24. ↑ NBC 15, "The Latest: Nicholson says he's open to abortion exceptions," January 30, 2018
  25. ↑ Wisconsin Public Radio, "Vukmir, Nicholson Clash At Close Of First GOP Senate Primary Debate," April 26, 2018
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 Washington Examiner, "NRA endorses Leah Vukmir in Wisconsin Senate race," July 17, 2018
  27. ↑ Associated Press, "Nicholson wins endorsement of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz," January 3, 2017
  28. ↑ Club for Growth, "Endorsed Candidates," accessed January 31, 2018
  29. ↑ FreedomWorks, "FreedomWorks For America Endorses Kevin Nicholson in Wisconsin Senate Race," October 18, 2017
  30. ↑ Tea Party Patriots Citizen Fund, "Citizens Fund Endorses Kevin Nicholson for Senate in Wisconsin," April 16, 2018
  31. ↑ WTMJ, "Steve Bannon injects himself into Wisconsin Senate race, backing Vukmir challenger Kevin Nicholson," October 17, 2017
  32. ↑ National Review, "John Bolton Endorses Kevin Nicholson in 2018 Wisconsin Senate Race," August 10, 2017
  33. ↑ The Wichita Eagle, "Ryan, Sensenbrenner endorse Vukmir in Senate primary," accessed June 25, 2018
  34. ↑ The Wichita Eagle, "Ryan, Sensenbrenner endorse Vukmir in Senate primary," accessed June 25, 2018
  35. ↑ Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate, "Glenn Grothman Chooses Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate," July 9, 2018
  36. ↑ Wisconsin Politics, "Vumir campaign: Rep. Sean Duffy chooses Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate," accessed July 19, 2018
  37. ↑ Medium, "Leah unveils 100+ Wisconsin endorsements," November 2, 2017
  38. ↑ 38.00 38.01 38.02 38.03 38.04 38.05 38.06 38.07 38.08 38.09 38.10 38.11 38.12 38.13 38.14 38.15 38.16 38.17 38.18 38.19 38.20 38.21 38.22 38.23 38.24 38.25 38.26 38.27 38.28 38.29 38.30 38.31 38.32 38.33 38.34 38.35 38.36 38.37 38.38 38.39 38.40 38.41 38.42 38.43 38.44 38.45 38.46 38.47 38.48 38.49 Medium, "Leah unveils 100+ Wisconsin endorsements," November 2, 2017
  39. ↑ RightWisconsin, "Former Lt. Gov. Margaret Farrow endorses Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate," September 14, 2017
  40. ↑ 40.0 40.1 U.S. News & World Report, "Walker's Wife Supports Vukmir in GOP Senate Primary," February 12, 2018
  41. ↑ Maggie's List, "Maggie's List Proudly Endorsed Leah Vukmir for U.S Senate," December 12, 2017
  42. ↑ Urban Milwaukee, "ICYMI – RightNOW Women PAC Endorses Leah Vukmir," January 2, 2018
  43. ↑ Politico, "DCCC adds 9 to ‘Red to Blue,’ spurned candidates blast committee," March 23, 2018
  44. ↑ 44.0 44.1 44.2 Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Video from 2016 surfaces of Leah Vukmir saying Donald Trump was 'offensive to everyone,'" July 31, 2018
  45. ↑ Politico, "He’s the Republican Dream Candidate. There’s Just One Problem," September 22, 2017
  46. ↑ Wisconsin State Journal, "Republican US Senate hopeful Kevin Nicholson still faces questions about his Democratic past," February 18, 2018
  47. ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Wisconsin U.S. Senate race: Reince Priebus backs Leah Vukmir, slams Kevin Nicholson," January 22, 2018
  48. ↑ Madison.com, "Nicholson: Democratic ties won't be 'a big thing' in Republican Senate primary," January 31, 2018
  49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 WTOP, "GOP Senate candidates spar over Wisconsin party endorsement," April 10, 2018
  50. ↑ 50.0 50.1 Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Wisconsin GOP Senate candidate Kevin Nicholson tangles with Ryan, Sensenbrenner, Farrow," November 4, 2016
  51. ↑ 51.0 51.1 NBC 15, "Bolton PAC launches new ad to benefit Nicholson for Senate," March 19, 2018
  52. ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "John Bolton group launches $1 million ad campaign backing GOP Senate candidate Kevin Nicholson," January 3, 2018
  53. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Independent poll gives Hawaii's governor his first lead in Democratic primary," July 17, 2018
  54. ↑ Twitter, "Scott Bauer," July 24, 2018
  55. ↑ Politico, "Meehan will not seek reelection," January 26, 2018
  56. ↑ 56.0 56.1 56.2 USA Today, "10 super-rich people dominate giving to super PACs active in midterm elections for Congress," February 23, 2018
  57. ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Wisconsin Senate race: Kevin Nicholson edges Leah Vukmir in fundraising in last three months of 2017," January 8, 2018
  58. ↑ 58.0 58.1 Twitter, "Zachary Cohen," August 9, 2018
  59. ↑ Twitter, "Wisconsin Senate Watch," July 10, 2018
  60. ↑ Wisconsin Politics, "Wisconsin Next PAC ties Nicholson to Clinton in new TV ad," July 27, 2018
  61. ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1254650," accessed August 9, 2018
  62. ↑ Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "Wisconsin U.S. Senate race: Paul Ryan, Jim Sensenbrenner endorse Leah Vukmir," June 25, 2018
  63. ↑ Scribd, "WI-Sen: Hodas & Associates (R) for Restoration PAC (June 2018)," accessed June 19, 2018
  64. ↑ The Cap Times, "At Milwaukee convention, Wisconsin Republicans give nod to Leah Vukmir in Senate race," May 13, 2018
  65. ↑ Wisconsin Politics, "Restoration PAC announces $1 million TV buy backing Nicholson," April 19, 2018
  66. ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Leah Vukmir raises nearly $600,000 in first three months in Wisconsin U.S. Senate race," April 13, 2018
  67. ↑ Twitter, "Kevin Robillard," April 6, 2018
  68. ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "First pro-Leah Vukmir TV ad airs in Wisconsin U.S. Senate race," April 5, 2018
  69. ↑ Wisconsin State Journal, "Kevin Nicholson challenges Leah Vukmir to six debates in GOP US Senate primary," February 28, 2018
  70. ↑ CNN, "GOP Senate candidate's parents max out donations to primary campaign of Democrat he hopes to unseat," February 13, 2018
  71. ↑ Ron Johnson for Senate, "News," accessed August 25, 2015
  72. ↑ NPR, "Taking Aim At Money In Politics, Feingold Announces Comeback Bid," May 14, 2015
  73. ↑ Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Candidate Tracking by Office," accessed June 2, 2016
  74. ↑ 74.0 74.1 CNN, "Ron Johnson earns surprise GOP win in Wisconsin Senate race," accessed November 10, 2016
  75. ↑ 75.0 75.1 75.2 Milwaukee Wisconsin Journal Sentinel, "Strategic change pays off for Johnson," accessed November 10, 2016
  76. ↑ Wisconsin Radio Network, "Senator Ron Johnson wins re-election in Wisconsin (AUDIO)," accessed November 10, 2016
  77. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  78. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Wisconsin," accessed January 15, 2018
  79. ↑ Wisconsin Demographics, "Wisconsin Cities by Population," accessed January 15, 2018


Wisconsin's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Ronald Johnson (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Tony Wied (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (3)


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