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School board incumbency analysis: 2016 success rates
 Election Analysis |
Methods of election Opposition Non-incumbent success rates |
Success rates |
2015 incumbency analysis 2014 elections by the numbers 2014 incumbency analysis |
School board elections, 2016 |
School board incumbents who ran for re-election in America's largest school districts by enrollment in 2016 were more likely to win when they ran in by-district elections than when they ran in at-large elections. They were also more likely to win when they ran in races that included political party designations compared to when they ran in nonpartisan elections. When separated by type of election, incumbents had a higher success rate when they ran in runoff elections compared to when they ran in primaries, primary runoffs, or general elections.
The following sections analyze incumbency success rates by election method, the partisan nature of elections, and election type. Success rates were split into two types: overall and contested.
- Overall success rates include all incumbents who won re-election.
- Contested success rates include only incumbents who faced at least one challenger in their bids to keep their seats.
Methodology
In 2016, Ballotpedia covered school board elections in the top 1,000 school districts in the United States by enrollment. Of those districts, 648 held school board elections. These elections took place in 38 states. The 12 states where the largest districts by enrollment did not hold elections in 2016 were Colorado, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Washington. These states are not included in this report.
For more information on Ballotpedia's methodology for this report, check out the methodology in Ballotpedia's 2016 school board incumbency analysis.
At-large and by-district elections
Incumbents experienced a higher overall success rate when they ran for re-election in by-district elections compared to when they ran in at-large elections. A total of 83.72 percent of incumbents who sought additional terms in by-district elections kept their seats, while 80.19 percent of incumbents who ran in at-large elections kept their seats. Incumbents who faced challengers, however, fared better in at-large elections. A total of 75.53 percent of incumbents won re-election against challengers when they ran in at-large elections, while 66.74 percent won re-election against challengers in by-district elections.
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A higher percentage of incumbents ran to keep their seats in by-district elections compared to at-large elections. A total of 72.37 percent of incumbents whose school districts used the by-district election method ran for additional terms, while 69.63 percent of incumbents whose school districts used the at-large election method ran for additional terms. Incumbents were also more likely to run unopposed in by-district elections. Just over half—51.03 percent—of incumbents who ran in by-district elections faced no opposition. In at-large elections, 19.05 percent of incumbents faced no opposition. |
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Details of incumbency success rates by election method can be found in the chart above and in the table below. The figure for incumbents who ran with a slate in the table below includes incumbents who ran as part of a candidate slate. Candidates run in slates to support each other's campaign and share campaign literature. In some cases, candidate slates also share financial contributions.
Partisan and nonpartisan elections
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Nonpartisan races were much more prevalent in the 2016 school board elections than races that allowed candidates to run with a political party designation. Incumbents were more likely to seek re-election in partisan elections than nonpartisan elections. A total of 79.03 percent of incumbents whose districts held elections with political party distinctions sought re-election, compared to 70.79 percent in nonpartisan elections. |
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Incumbents also had a higher overall success rate when they ran in partisan elections than when they ran in nonpartisan elections. A total of 83.67 percent of incumbents who ran for re-election in partisan elections won re-election, while 82.29 percent of incumbents who ran in nonpartisan elections won. Incumbents in nonpartisan races fared better, however, when they ran against challengers. A total of 71.25 percent of incumbents who ran against challengers in nonpartisan elections kept their seats, while 69.23 percent of incumbents who ran against challengers in partisan elections kept their seats.
A higher percentage of incumbents ran for re-election unopposed in partisan races compared to those who ran in nonpartisan races. A total of 46.94 percent of incumbents were unopposed in partisan elections, compared to the 38.41 percent who ran unopposed in nonpartisan elections.
Details of incumbency success rates by the partisan nature of elections can be found in the chart above and in the table below. The figure for incumbents who ran with a slate in the table below includes incumbents who ran as part of a candidate slate. Candidates run in slates to support each other's campaign and share campaign literature. In some cases, candidate slates also share financial contributions.
Primary, primary runoff, general, and runoff elections
Incumbents ran in four different types of elections in 2016: primaries, primary runoffs, general elections, and runoff elections. A majority of incumbents ran in general elections, while primary runoffs and runoff elections tied for the fewest incumbents. Just one incumbent ran in each of those election types.
Incumbents had the highest success rate when they ran in runoff elections compared to when they ran in the other three types of elections. The lowest success rate was found in primary runoffs, where no incumbents won re-election.
No incumbents ran for re-election unopposed in primary runoffs or runoff elections. General elections saw the highest unopposed rate. A total of 39.03 percent of incumbents ran unopposed in those elections.
The table below details overall success rates, contested success rates, and the percentage of unopposed incumbents in all four election types.
See also
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