School board incumbency analysis: 2015 in brief
 Election Analysis |
Methods of election Opposition Non-incumbent success rates |
Success rates |
Analysis of incumbency advantage in the 2014 school board elections |
School board elections, 2015 |
Whether they are running for an office at the top of the ballot or the bottom, incumbents hold significant advantages when they run for re-election. These advantages include higher name recognition, more experience and any accomplishments they have attained in their past years in office. They can use these advantages to promote their campaigns and gain trust with voters. In order to win, challengers must show voters not only that they are qualified for the position, but also that they can serve better than the current officeholder.
Over the past 10 election cycles, an average of 86.1 percent of U.S. Senate incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Easily surpassing them are the 94.2 percent of U.S. House incumbents who have retained their seats since 1996.[1] Over 90 percent of state legislative incumbents won re-election every year since 1996. In 2015, 88.41 percent of municipal incumbents won re-election in America's largest cities.
| School board incumbents did not have quite as high a success rate as those in federal, state or municipal office, but they did have an advantage over newcomers. A total of 82.66 percent of school board incumbents who ran for re-election retained their seats in America's largest school districts. This was similar to the 81.31 percent of incumbents who won additional terms in the 2014 school board elections. |
Ballotpedia conducted the following study using data from the 2015 elections to investigate the advantages of incumbency in school board elections.
Overview
- See also: School boards in session: 2015 in brief
The following list details how incumbents fared overall in the 2015 school board elections:
- A total of 969 incumbents ran for re-election to 1,377 school board seats in 440 school districts in 32 states.
- 70.37 percent of incumbents whose seats were on the ballot ran for re-election.
- 40.45 percent of those incumbents ran unopposed.
- 82.66 percent of incumbents were re-elected.
- 70.88 percent of incumbents defeated challengers to retain their seats.
- 58.17 percent of all seats up for election were kept by incumbents.
- 3.10 percent of incumbents ran as part of a candidate slate.
- Alaska, Mississippi, Montana and Oklahoma had a 100.00 percent incumbency success rate.
- Nebraska was the only state in which no incumbents won re-election.
Comparing to 2014
Incumbents in the 2015 school board elections saw very similar success rates to those seen in the 2014 school board elections. In 2014, 81.31 percent of incumbents won another term on their respective school boards. In 2015, 82.66 percent were elected to additional terms.
Though incumbents experienced similar success rates each year, those who ran in 2014 kept a larger percentage of the seats on the ballot. A total of 61.44 percent of seats on the ballot in 2014 were retained by incumbents, compared to 58.17 percent in 2015. This discrepancy comes in part from how many more seats were on the ballot in 2014 than in 2015. In 2014, 2,190 seats were up for election, and 1,654 incumbents ran to retain their seats. In 2015, 1,377 seats were up for election, and 969 incumbents ran to keep their seats.
In 2015, 40.45 percent of incumbents ran unopposed. This was higher than the 35.85 percent of incumbents who ran unopposed in 2014. A total of 70.88 percent of incumbents who faced challengers won additional terms in 2015. This was equal to the 70.88 percent of incumbents who successfully defeated challengers to keep their seats in 2014.
Details on incumbency analysis from each election year can be found in the table below.
| Incumbency analysis by year | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | States | Districts | Seats on the ballot | Total incumbents (#) | Total incumbents (%) | Unopposed incumbents (#) | Unopposed incumbents (%) | Success rate | Contested success rate | Seats kept by incumbents (#) | Seats kept by incumbents (%) |
| 2014 | 37 | 671 | 2,190 | 1,654 | 75.56% | 593 | 35.85% | 81.31% | 70.88% | 1,345 | 61.44% |
| 2015 | 32 | 440 | 1,377 | 969 | 70.37% | 392 | 40.45% | 82.66% | 70.88% | 801 | 58.17% |
Methodology
This report looks at overall numbers from the 2015 school board elections related to incumbency success in the top 1,000 school districts in the United States by enrollment. Of those districts, 440 held school board elections. These elections took place in 32 states. The 18 states where the largest districts by enrollment did not hold elections in 2015 were Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming. These states are not included in this report.
The elections in the 2015 scope were not equally divided across states. The range runs from a high of 218 school board seats on the ballot in Texas to a low of one seat on the ballot in Mississippi. The comparisons made in the report are not representative of each state as a whole; rather, they demonstrate the relative incumbency success rates among the largest districts of each state, with varying sample sizes in each location. To mitigate the unequal representation by state, this report also looks at incumbency success rates by enrollment size. School districts were compared by eight enrollment ranges, with the largest enrollment size at over 100,000 students and the smallest enrollment size below 10,000 students.
The total number of candidates includes a small number of duplicates as certain individuals ran for multiple seats. If that was the case, they were counted for each seat they ran to represent. To calculate the percentage of unopposed seats and the average number of candidates who ran per seat, this report counts only formal candidates. Candidates are considered formal candidates if they went through the regular filing process stipulated for school board elections in their state. Write-in candidates are not considered formal candidates as laws vary greatly across the states in how they file for election or if they have to file at all.
Because write-in candidates were not calculated as formal candidates, any incumbent who faced only write-in challengers was considered unopposed. No write-in candidate beat an incumbent to win a seat in 2015; they only took open seats. Incumbents were also considered unopposed if no formal candidate filed to challenge them who could actually defeat them. For example, if minor party requirements were used, and the number of minor party candidates equaled the number of seats required to be filled by a minor party representative, those minor party candidates were considered unopposed. Incumbents were not considered unopposed if they faced any challenge throughout their election process. For example, if they saw opposition in a primary election but not a general, they were not considered unopposed.
Success rates
Success rates for incumbents in 2015 varied depending on the method in which elections were conducted. For example, incumbents were more likely to run for re-election, run unopposed and retain their seats when they ran in races held by district, compared to other election methods. The number of total candidates in a race also affected incumbents' success rates. They were nearly always more successful when running in races with three total candidates, compared to running in races with two, four or five or more candidates.
Incumbent success rates were also influenced by the partisan nature of the elections they ran in and by the election type, whether it was a primary, a general or a runoff. For more information on incumbent success rates in the 2015 school board elections by election method, by the number of challengers faced and by election returns, check out our incumbency success rates page.
Analysis by state
Four states—Alaska, Mississippi, Montana and Oklahoma—had a 100 percent incumbency success rate in 2015. Some of the incumbents in Alaska and Oklahoma defeated challengers to retain their seats, but the incumbents in Mississippi and Montana saw no opposition in their bids for re-election.
Nebraska was the only state in which no incumbents won re-election. One district held elections for three school board seats in that state. One incumbent ran for re-election, but was defeated. Idaho had the second-lowest incumbency success rate with 60.00 percent of incumbents winning additional terms. Ten incumbents ran to retain their seats, and six were re-elected. Half of them won without opposition, and one defeated a challenger to gain another term.
More details on incumbency success rates in each state that held school board elections can be found in the map and table below.
The map above details the success rates of incumbent who ran to retain their school board seats in the largest school districts in each state. States depicted in gray did not hold school board elections. |
| Incumbency analysis by state | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Total enrollment | Districts holding elections | Seats up for election | Total candidates | Total incumbents | Unopposed incumbents | Incumbents re-elected | Total success rate | Success rate for contested incumbents |
| Total | 10,322,036 | 440 | 1,377 | 2,375 | 969 | 392 | 801 | 82.66% | 70.88% |
| Alaska | 80,652 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Arkansas | 85,040 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 77.78% | 50.00% |
| California | 1,453,222 | 46 | 122 | 245 | 90 | 23 | 73 | 81.11% | 74.63% |
| Colorado | 663,315 | 21 | 65 | 115 | 36 | 13 | 30 | 83.33% | 73.91% |
| Connecticut | 127,693 | 9 | 41 | 74 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 69.57% | 63.16% |
| Delaware | 62,469 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 75.00% | 50.00% |
| Idaho | 97,639 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 60.00% | 20.00% |
| Illinois | 409,548 | 24 | 82 | 139 | 59 | 23 | 46 | 77.97% | 63.89% |
| Iowa | 146,562 | 10 | 41 | 68 | 25 | 5 | 21 | 84.00% | 80.00% |
| Kansas | 174,722 | 7 | 28 | 52 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 95.45% | 93.75% |
| Louisiana | 71,054 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 66.67% | 50.00% |
| Massachusetts | 126,853 | 9 | 51 | 76 | 35 | 10 | 30 | 85.71% | 80.00% |
| Minnesota | 172,892 | 9 | 33 | 56 | 23 | 4 | 22 | 95.65% | 94.74% |
| Mississippi | 9,518 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.00% | N/A* |
| Missouri | 307,680 | 18 | 38 | 73 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 73.91% | 71.43% |
| Montana | 11,145 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100.00% | N/A* |
| Nebraska | 36,943 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| New Hampshire | 26,243 | 2 | 19 | 36 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 86.67% | 77.78% |
| New Jersey | 274,059 | 18 | 58 | 114 | 41 | 8 | 29 | 70.73% | 63.64% |
| New Mexico | 198,128 | 8 | 20 | 41 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 64.29% | 50.00% |
| New York | 207,170 | 16 | 44 | 73 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 67.86% | 57.14% |
| North Carolina | 186,101 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 83.33% | 81.82% |
| Ohio | 320,378 | 19 | 46 | 80 | 36 | 14 | 30 | 83.33% | 72.73% |
| Oklahoma | 258,524 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Oregon | 270,159 | 13 | 44 | 72 | 29 | 20 | 27 | 93.10% | 77.78% |
| Pennsylvania | 238,994 | 18 | 91 | 161 | 57 | 22 | 48 | 84.21% | 74.29% |
| South Carolina | 21,097 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 75.00% | 75.00% |
| South Dakota | 37,227 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 80.00% | 75.00% |
| Texas | 2,723,097 | 80 | 218 | 369 | 170 | 92 | 142 | 83.53% | 64.10% |
| Virginia | 655,920 | 20 | 103 | 166 | 68 | 37 | 58 | 85.29% | 67.74% |
| Washington | 618,358 | 34 | 102 | 151 | 76 | 51 | 69 | 90.79% | 72.00% |
| Wisconsin | 249,634 | 12 | 34 | 47 | 25 | 8 | 21 | 84.00% | 76.47% |
| *Not applicable as all incumbents ran unopposed. | |||||||||
Analysis by enrollment
Incumbents saw a higher success rate in school districts with an enrollment of 40,001 students to 60,000 students than in any other enrollment size in 2015. A total of 87.27 percent of incumbents retained their seats. That enrollment size also had the highest success rate for incumbents who ran in contested elections, with 80 percent of them winning re-election. Districts with a student enrollment between 80,001 and 100,000 had the second-highest incumbency success rate. Overall, 84.62 percent of incumbents in that enrollment size won additional terms, and 77.78 percent of incumbents who faced challengers kept their seats.
Districts with a student enrollment of 60,001 to 80,000 had the lowest incumbency success rate with 64 percent of those who ran winning re-election. Just half of the incumbents who ran in contested elections in that enrollment size retained their seats. Districts with an enrollment between 30,001 students and 40,000 students had the second-lowest incumbency success rate. Overall, 74.42 percent of incumbents in that enrollment size won additional terms, and 63.33 percent of incumbents who faced challengers kept their seats.
More details on school board incumbency success rates by enrollment size can be found in the chart above and the table below.
| Incumbency analysis by enrollment | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrollment size | Districts holding elections | Seats up for election | Total candidates | Total incumbents | Unopposed incumbents | Incumbents re-elected | Overall success rate | Success rate for contested incumbents |
| Total | 440 | 1,377 | 2,375 | 969 | 392 | 801 | 82.66% | 70.88% |
| Below 10,000 | 52 | 147 | 236 | 101 | 48 | 84 | 83.17% | 67.92% |
| 10,001 - 20,000 | 243 | 778 | 1,271 | 552 | 238 | 464 | 84.06% | 71.97% |
| 20,001 - 30,000 | 74 | 216 | 389 | 153 | 54 | 125 | 81.70% | 71.72% |
| 30,001 - 40,000 | 25 | 69 | 132 | 43 | 13 | 32 | 74.42% | 63.33% |
| 40,001 - 60,000 | 26 | 82 | 166 | 55 | 20 | 48 | 87.27% | 80.00% |
| 60,001 - 80,000 | 8 | 31 | 61 | 25 | 7 | 16 | 64.00% | 50.00% |
| 80,001 - 100,000 | 5 | 20 | 44 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 84.62% | 77.78% |
| Above 100,001 | 7 | 34 | 76 | 27 | 8 | 21 | 77.78% | 68.42% |
See also
| School Boards | News and Analysis |
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Footnotes
