Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for March 27, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
March 27, 2017: The Number of the Day feature is designed to explore interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. And what could be a better reflection of American culture than beer? Today’s number highlights a cultural watershed that helps explain the extreme political polarization and tension in the United States.
Americans today enjoy beer brewed in 4,269 breweries across the nation. That’s an all-time high. What’s interesting, though, is the trend. The all-time low was reached not all that long ago in the 1970s.
Prior to the record number of breweries operating in the last couple of years, the previous high water mark was reached way back in 1873. At that time, the U.S. had 4,131 breweries to quench the national thirst. From that peak, the number steadily declined for a full century, fueled by the forces of consolidation and centralization. When the 1970s arrived, there were just 89 breweries in America.
But that’s when things turned around and the number of breweries began to grow again. Rather than just choosing between one of a few national brands, beer drinkers today have a dizzying assortment of craft beers and local options. Finally, in 2015, the number of breweries exceeded the 19th-century totals to reach an all-time high.
And, it should be noted, the number of choices available today is even more dramatic than the chart above suggests. In addition to 4,269 breweries, the American Homebrewers Association reports that more than a million Americans brew their own beer at home.[1]
What does this have to do with 21st-century political tension?
The trends seen in the beer industry reflect trends in American society at large.
- For two centuries leading up to the 1970s, the trend was for everything in America to get bigger, more centralized, and more homogenized.
- After the '70s, however, cultural trends moved in the opposite direction, with everything becoming more niche-oriented, decentralized, and personalized.
The change was brought about by the invention of the microprocessor and the founding of Apple and Microsoft in the 1970s. I explore the implications of this change in my forthcoming book, Politics Has Failed: America Will Not. In the '70s, without knowing it, America was experiencing the end of the Industrial Revolution and the beginning of the most significant cultural change in American history. The Digital Revolution kicked off what I call the Great Turnaround.
In a world where culture leads and politicians lag behind, it is virtually impossible to overstate the significance of that change. Political leaders were happy to follow society at large when it led to a more centralized and powerful system of government. They are not nearly as enthusiastic about the ongoing decentralization that is constantly shifting power from the dysfunctional political system to vibrant centers of society.
As a result, the past four decades have seen the nation and its political system heading in opposite directions. The political system has been growing more centralized while the nation has become more decentralized. This disconnect is responsible for the tension and polarization in 21st-century politics.
Fortunately, the disconnect cannot last forever. All of American history shows that the political system eventually catches up to the culture. A centralized one-size-fits-all government may have made sense back when there were just 89 breweries in the nation. But it cannot survive in an iPad era with 4,269 breweries and a million do-it-yourselfers brewing at home.
- Last Friday’s number was $205 billion, the growth in federal spending projected in President Trump’s 2018 budget plan.
- Thursday’s number was 101 minutes, the average time spent in the waiting room and traveling to see a doctor.
- Wednesday’s number was 39.3, the gallons of water consumed by the average American in 2016. For the first time ever, Americans consumed more bottled water than soda.
- Tuesday’s number was 32.6, the number of years Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch could serve on the court based on life expectancy.
- Monday’s number looked at 206 Pivot Counties that voted twice for President Obama and then voted for President Trump in 2016.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
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Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
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