Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for May 6, 2019
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
May 6, 2019: The race for the Democratic presidential nomination will formally kick off on February 3 with the Iowa caucuses. However, the real action is likely to take place a month later.
In Iowa, voters will select 1% of the pledged delegates heading to the Democratic National Convention. But 47% of the pledged delegates will be selected between March 3 and 10. Never before in the modern history of presidential campaigns has there been such a compressed schedule of campaigning.
On March 3, California and Texas will headline a list of Democratic primaries. Also voting on that day will be Alabama, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and Democrats abroad. By March 10, votes will also be cast in Louisiana, Maine, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, and Washington state.
Another batch of states vote by March 19, and 64% of all delegates will have been selected by that time.
- See also: Democratic delegate rules, 2020
Given that there are nearly two dozen candidates in the race and that delegates are awarded on a somewhat proportional basis, it is impossible to envision what the race will look like at that time. One scenario might involve a candidate coming out very strong and building an insurmountable lead, effectively ending the nomination battle early.
Another possibility is that the delegates will be so scattered among numerous candidates that nobody will be able to assemble the 1,885 pledged delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. If that happens, the choice of the Democratic nominee will likely be in the hands of the 764 superdelegates.
Superdelegates include members of the Democratic National Committee, Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors, or distinguished party leaders, including former presidents and vice presidents. They can vote for whomever they want.
Following the 2016 campaign, the nomination rules were changed so that these superdelegates will not be allowed to vote on the first ballot. But in a closely contested race, they could easily hold the balance of power on the second ballot.
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
- May 3, 2019 – 56 years ago today, Bull Connor unleashed dogs and fire hoses on African American schoolchildren
- May 2, 2019 – 66 percent of voters believe national political reporters often get the story wrong
- May 1, 2019 – 38 percent of voters consider national political news accurate and reliable
- April 30, 2019 – 18 percent of voters want to eliminate private health insurance companies
- April 29, 2019 – 53 percent of U.S. voters believe political corruption is a crisis
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
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Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
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