Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for March 31, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
March 31, 2017: Iowa has 31 Pivot Counties, more than any other state. A Pivot County is one that voted twice for President Obama and then switched to President Trump in 2016.
According to recent voter registration records, 16 of these counties had more Republicans than Democrats. Fifteen had more Democrats. In most, however, there was a plurality (a relative majority) of unaffiliated voters. Democrats had a plurality in just six of the Iowa Pivot Counties, and Republicans enjoyed the plurality in only two.[1]
In 2012, the Iowa Pivot Counties voted for President Obama by a 12-point margin, 55 percent to 43 percent. In 2016, they voted for President Trump by a 13-point margin, 53 percent to 40 percent. That’s a net swing of 25 points (from D+12 to R+13).
Statewide, the swing was less pronounced but still significant. Obama won the state by six points in 2012, while Trump earned a nine-point victory in 2016. That’s a net swing of 15 points.
| Iowa Pivot Counties Results | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 |
| Democratic | 57% | 55% | 40% |
| Republican | 41% | 43% | 53% |
| NET | D+16 | D+12 | R+13 |
Nationally, Pivot Counties accounted for just 5 percent of the total vote cast. However, they accounted for 25 percent of the total vote in Iowa. But, because the shift in Pivot County voting was larger than that of the statewide totals, the Pivot Counties accounted for 41 percent of the statewide shift from Democrats to Republicans.
As seen in the map below, most of the Pivot Counties were located in the eastern part of the state. Western Iowa has been solidly Republican, with most counties voting for the GOP candidate in 2008, 2012, and 2016.
Only six counties voted Democratic in each of the last three presidential elections. However, they are also the six largest counties in terms of vote totals. That is consistent with national trends showing that Democrats are strongest in larger population centers.
A separate analysis shows that, nationwide, the Pivot Counties became Democratic-leaning counties during the presidency of Bill Clinton. They remained Democratic-leaning throughout the Bush and Obama years before switching back in 2016. In effect, the counties that Bill Clinton won over for the Democrats rejected the party that nominated Hillary Clinton for president.[2]
It is interesting to note that the total number of votes cast in Iowa declined by 16,149 from 2012 to 2016. Almost all of that decline was concentrated in the Pivot Counties. In those 31 counties, the vote total dropped by 13,516 votes in 2016.
Nationally, the 206 Pivot Counties have accounted for a declining share of the vote in every election since 1968.
- Yesterday’s number showed that the average worker receives $11.03 per hour in benefits. The increased cost of benefits, primarily related to health insurance, takes more than $3,000 away from salary and wages annually.
- Wednesday's number was $25 billion, the cost of storing paper records in warehouses. We now generate so much paper that a firm is building robots to clean up the mess.
- Tuesday’s number was 14, the number of U.S. presidents who made one or fewer appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court. It is possible that Neil Gorsuch could be Donald Trump’s only chance to elevate someone to the court.
- Monday’s number was 4,269, the number of breweries in the United States. That figure helps explain the tension and polarization of 21st-century politics.
- Last Friday’s number was $205 billion, the growth in federal spending projected in President Trump’s 2018 budget plan.
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
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Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
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See also
- Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day
- Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016
- Pivot Counties in Iowa
Footnotes
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