State Ballot Measure Monthly: September 2017
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September 10, 2017 (updated September 11, 2017)
By Ballot Measures Project staff
Twenty-seven statewide ballot measures are certified for 2017 statewide ballots in nine states. No more 2017 certifications are expected. Of those, 22 of them will go before voters at the November 2017 election. This is the lowest number of statewide ballot measures to be certified in any year since 1947. In the last month, zero statewide measures were certified for 2017 ballots.
Twenty-nine statewide ballot measures have been certified for 2018 ballots so far. In the last month, zero statewide measures were certified to go before voters in 2018.
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2017
The chart above demonstrates the downward trend in ballot measures appearing on statewide ballots during odd-numbered years. This year's 27 statewide measures in nine states is the lowest number of certified measures since 1947 when there were 23 statewide measures. From 1987 through 2015, the average number of measures on the ballot in odd-numbered years was 51, with an average of 11 states in which measures appeared on the ballot. In the last decade, however, the average dropped to 34 measures in eight states. Since 2001, the average was 41 measures in 10 states. From 1991 onward, the number of certified measures peaked at 71 in 1999. That year also had the highest number of states with ballot measures on the ballot over the last three decades. Although even-numbered years feature a far greater number of ballot measures—an average of 192 from 1980 through 2016—a downward trend has occurred in even-numbered years as well.
The last odd-numbered year in which the number of measures certified reached the average over the last ten years was 2011 when voters in nine states decided 34 measures. In 2011, there were 12 citizen-initiated measures on the ballot and 22 measures referred by state legislatures. In 2017, there are four citizen-initiated measures, 19 legislatively referred measures (including bond issues), one measure automatically referred, and three advisory questions triggered by tax increasing legislation in Washington. The citizen-initiated measures in 2011 consisted of one in Colorado, three in Maine, three in Mississippi, two in Ohio, and three in Washington. This year, the initiatives are in Maine and Ohio. No initiatives are on the ballot in Washington and Colorado, which are two of the states that most commonly feature such measures in odd-numbered years. Mississippi voters decided initiatives in 2015 and 2011. Before that, the last odd-year Mississippi initiative was on the ballot in 1999. The last odd-numbered year in which there were more than the three-decade average was 2003 when voters in 15 states decided 68 measures.
Click here to see information about all of the 2017 statewide measures, which include the following topics: drug prices (Ohio), Medicaid expansion (Maine), a constitutional convention (New York), casino authorization (Maine), law enforcement (Ohio), an environmental lockbox measure (New Jersey), taxes and budgets, and bond issues (four states).
2018
2018 certifications
Twenty-nine statewide ballot measures have been certified for 2018 ballots so far. By this time in 2013, 51 measures had been certified for the 2014 ballot; ultimately, 158 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2014. By this time in 2015, 35 measures had been certified for the 2016 ballot; ultimately, 162 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2016.
- One measure—a veto referendum targeting the repeal of Arizona's Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESA) expansion—was officially certified for the ballot on September 8, 2017, for the election on November 6, 2018. Because of this certification, Senate Bill 1431, the bill that expanded the scholarship program, will continue to be suspended from enactment until the election. The ESA program was designed to disperse funds to parents or guardians of students at 90 percent of what the state would have paid for the student in a district or charter school. The parents or guardians would be able to spend the funds on education services and supplies.
Context from past years
In 2016, there was a surge in the number of citizen-initiated measures; 76 initiatives and veto referendums were put on the ballot. This was more citizen-initiated measures than we've seen since 2006.
For initiatives to reach the ballot, they must first be filed for the various approval processes in each state and circulated for signature gathering. Only a small percentage of the initiatives filed actually make the ballot. For example, in 2017, an above-average 1,069 initiatives were filed with state officials. This resulted in 2016's 76 certified measures, a success rate of 7 percent. Since 2010, Maryland (75%), South Dakota (73%), North Dakota (47%), Alaska (43%), and Maine (32%) had the highest success rates on average. Maryland has a veto referendum process but no initiative process; since 2010, four veto referendums have been filed, and three made the ballot.
As of September 1, 2017, 535 initiatives had been filed for circulation targeting 2018 elections. By January 1, 2016, 690 initiatives have been filed targeting the 2016 ballot. In 2010, 2012, and 2014, the average total number of initiatives filed with state officials was about 610. Of the 26 states that feature an initiative process, 2018 initiatives or veto referendums were filed for circulation in 22 of them. Topics range from marijuana legalization, minimum wage, healthcare, and right to work to taxes, education, election and campaign finance rules, and redistricting. Click on the links below to see what initiatives are circulating in your state.
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Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, New Mexico had no filings as of September 1, 2017.
On average since 2010, the most initiatives were filed in Washington, California, and Colorado, where more than 100 are filed for any given even-numbered year on average. California has seen the highest average number of successful initiative attempts. For 2018, Missouri has seen the most filings at 272—about three times the state's average of 97 since 2010. More filings are expected in the last months of 2017 and the first half of 2018. Look into the signature submission deadlines for 2018 initiatives and veto referendums to understand the timeline for each state.
The map and expandable chart below show the average success rates per year of filed initiatives and referendums (I&R) in each state over the last eight years (in even-numbered years).
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The percentage of filed initiatives that reach the ballot does not necessarily correlate with the ease or difficulty of putting an initiative on the ballot in that state. Some states make filing more difficult or more expensive, making only more serious petitioners take that first step. In some states, initiative proponents file multiple versions of substantively the same initiative and ultimately put their efforts behind one.
The data—including the specific success percentage rates—represented by the map above is available below and can be expanded by clicking show.
| Data for average even-year initiative success rates (2010-2018) | |||
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| State | Av. filed | Av. certified | Av. success rate |
| Alabama | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Alaska | 5.20 | 2.00 | 38.46% |
| Arizona | 27.40 | 1.60 | 5.84% |
| Arkansas | 7.40 | 1.60 | 21.62% |
| California | 95.00 | 10.20 | 10.74% |
| Colorado | 102.80 | 5.00 | 4.86% |
| Connecticut | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Delaware | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Florida | 29.20 | 1.80 | 6.16% |
| Georgia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Hawaii | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Idaho | 7.80 | 1.00 | 12.82% |
| Illinois | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Indiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Iowa | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kansas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kentucky | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Louisiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Maine | 6.20 | 2.20 | 35.48% |
| Maryland | 0.80 | 0.60 | 75.00% |
| Massachusetts | 31.80 | 3.40 | 10.69% |
| Michigan | 11.20 | 2.20 | 19.64% |
| Minnesota | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Mississippi | 8.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Missouri | 184.50 | 3.20 | 1.73% |
| Montana | 18.80 | 2.20 | 11.70% |
| Nebraska | 6.60 | 0.60 | 9.09% |
| Nevada | 9.40 | 1.80 | 19.15% |
| New Hampshire | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Jersey | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Mexico | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0% |
| New York | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Dakota | 7.60 | 3.80 | 50.00% |
| Ohio | 21.80 | 0.40 | 1.83% |
| Oklahoma | 6.80 | 1.20 | 17.65% |
| Oregon | 63.00 | 5.60 | 8.89% |
| Pennsylvania | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Rhode Island | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Dakota | 8.40 | 3.80 | 45.24% |
| Tennessee | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Texas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Utah | 2.60 | 0.60 | 23.08% |
| Vermont | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Washington | 128.60 | 4.60 | 3.58% |
| West Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wisconsin | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wyoming | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Average total | 756.20 | 59.40 | 7.86% |
See also
- 2017 ballot measures
- 2018 ballot measures
- List of ballot measures by state
- List of ballot measures by year
- Ballot initiatives filed for the 2018 ballot
- Ballot Measure Scorecard, 2018
Related articles
Footnotes
- ↑ The numbers in the second column indicate how many ballot measures were certified for the ballot in the last month; for example a "+3" means that three measures were certified in the last month.
- ↑ This was current as of September 1, 2017. Up to several hundred more filings are expected in late 2017 and the first half of 2018.
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