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This week in Ballotpedia election updates:
Red state senators react to Kavanaugh nomination, Obama endorses and Clinton campaigns, and we preview the Colorado and Connecticut state Senate elections.
Have a tip for us or see something we missed? As always, let me know at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues.
   
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Upcoming Dates to Know
Voter registration deadlines
October 8 - Mississippi, Nevada, South Carolina
October 9 - Alaska, Rhode Island
Early voting periods
October 8 - California, Iowa
October 9 - Montana, Nevada |
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Elections at a Glance
Federal
23 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. House
2 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. Senate
State
36 - Governor races
12 - Vulnerable trifectas
5 Democratic
7 Republican |
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Each week, we provide an overview of a midterm race that we find fascinating and that we think you will, too.
Gov. Scott Walker seeks third term in Wisconsin's toss-up gubernatorial race
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) faces voters for the fourth time in 10 years Nov. 6 as he seeks a third term in the state’s top office. Walker won his first term in 2010, survived a recall effort in 2012, and won a second term in 2014.
This time, Walker faces Democratic nominee Tony Evers. The race is rated a toss-up by three ratings outlets. Two recent independent polls have shown Evers leading within or near margins of error. A third poll showed a tie.
The last time an incumbent Wisconsin governor was defeated for re-election was in 1986 when Tommy Thompson (R) defeated Tony Earl (D).
Walker has touted wage growth and reduced unemployment in the state during his tenure, as well as policies to reduce student debt and keep college graduates in the state.
Evers, Wisconsin's superintendent of public instruction since 2009, is campaigning on his background in education. He said Walker has underfunded K-12 public education.
Wisconsin’s governorship has changed partisan hands five times in the last 10 elections. Walker could become the second Wisconsin governor elected to more than two consecutive terms since 1967.
New Jersey Senate poll shows tight race as candidates spar over ethics
In a Stockton University poll released Monday, incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D) leads Biopharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin (R) 45-42 percent, in the New Jersey Senate race.
Hugin said the poll shows Menendez is one of the most unpopular politicians in the country. Menendez and several pollsters, including Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Paul Murray, questioned the poll’s methodology and demographics.
Hugin and Menendez have been trading attacks on corruption and ethics. Hugin says the Senate Ethics Committee reprimanded Menendez for promoting the interests of a doctor after accepting gifts from him. Menendez criticized Hugin’s leadership of Celgene, which increased prices on cancer medication and settled a fraud lawsuit with the federal government for $280 million.
A Quinnipiac University poll in August had Hugin trailing Menendez by 6 percentage points.
Red states Democratic senators react to allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh
Here is how Democratic incumbent senators in states President Donald Trump (R) won in 2016 have responded to Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination following the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford, who accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault, and Kavanaugh, who denied the allegation:
- Joe Donnelly (Ind.) called the sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh “disturbing and credible.” Without an FBI investigation, Donnelly said he would oppose Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
- Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) said she had not made a final decision on Kavanaugh. “I think this idea that there’s only one person that can do this job, we all need to recalibrate.”
- Joe Manchin (W.Va.) has not indicated how he will vote.
- Claire McCaskill (Mo.) said she would oppose Kavanaugh’s nomination, but did not base her decision on Ford’s allegations. “It is his allegiance to the position that unlimited donations and dark anonymous money, from even foreign interests, should be allowed to swamp the voices of individuals that has been the determining factor in my decision to vote no on his nomination,” she said.
- Jon Tester (Mont.) said he would vote against Kavanaugh. “I have concerns that Judge Kavanaugh defended the PATRIOT Act instead of Montana's privacy. I have concerns about his support for more dark money in politics. I have concerns about who he believes is in charge of making personal health decisions. And I have deep concerns about the allegations of sexual assault against Judge Kavanaugh,” Tester said.
The Judicial Crisis Network is spending $400,000 on ads in Missouri and West Virginia calling on Heitkamp and Manchin to support Kavanaugh. In 2017, Heitkamp, Manchin, and Donnelly were the only Democrats who voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.
National groups cancel millions in ad buys in battleground House races
The House Majority PAC canceled nearly $1 million in reserved airtime in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, where Democratic challenger Jennifer Wexton leads incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) in a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday 50-44 percent. This was a narrower margin than Monmouth’s June poll showing Wexton with a 50-41 lead.
National party groups have increased spending in the district with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spending $567,000 and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spending $422,000.
In Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, the Congressional Leadership Fund canceled $2.1 million in television airtime in Rep. Mike Bishop’s (R) race with Elissa Slotkin (D). Slotkin has raised more money than Bishop, reporting $2.3 million cash on hand to Bishop’s $1.7 million.
The NRCC canceled more than $1 million in television advertising in Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) faces Sharice Davids (D) in a toss-up race.
Obama endorses 33 Democratic candidates in battleground races
Former President Barack Obama (D) endorsed a second wave of 260 Democratic candidates Monday. For the complete list, click here.
Obama endorsed 33 congressional candidates running in races Ballotpedia has identified as battlegrounds:
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senate in Arizona
- Bill Nelson, U.S. Senate in Florida
- Lucy McBath, GA-06
- Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, IL-13
- Abby Finkenauer, IA-01
- Cindy Axne, IA-03
- Sharice Davids, KS-03
- Jared Golden, ME-02
- Elissa Slotkin, MI-08
- Haley Stevens, MI-11
- Dan Feehan, MN-01
- Angie Craig, MN-02
- Dean Phillips, MN-03
- Joe Radinovich, MN-08
- Kara Eastman, NE-02
- Chris Pappas, NH-01
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- Tina Smith, U.S. Senate in Minnesota
- Jason Crow, CO-06
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, FL-26
- Max Rose, NY-11
- Linda Coleman, NC-02
- Scott Wallace, PA-01
- Mary Gay Scanlon, PA-05
- Chrissy Houlahan, PA-06
- Lizzie Fletcher, TX-07
- Gina Ortiz Jones, TX-23
- Elaine Luria, VA-02
- Abigail Spanberger, VA-07
- Jennifer Wexton, VA-10
- Carolyn Long, WA-03
- Lisa Brown, WA-05
- Kim Schrier, WA-08
- Randy Bryce, WI-01
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Trump campaigns in the South for Senate candidates
In his second visit to Tennessee Monday, President Donald Trump (R) headlined a rally promoting Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) for U.S. Senate in Tennessee over Phil Bresden (D).
“A vote for Marsha is really a vote for me and everything that we stand for,” he said.
Tuesday, Trump traveled to Southaven, Mississippi, to boost incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s (R) campaign for U.S. Senate. Hyde-Smith faces a challenge from Mike Espy (D) and Chris McDaniel (R).
Trump is scheduled to make the following stops this week:
- Thursday: Rochester, Minnesota
- Saturday: Topeka, Kansas
- Tuesday: Council Bluffs, Iowa
Debate season has begun
General election season is kicking off with debates and candidate forums in key races across the country. Find a summary of and watch the debates held in the following races last week:
Check out the following debates happening this week:
Hillary Clinton joins Democratic gubernatorial candidates in first public campaign appearances since 2016
Hillary Clinton (D) made her first public campaign appearance since the 2016 election Monday, participating in a roundtable with Illinois Democratic gubernatorial nominee J.B. Pritzker (D) in Chicago. Pritzker co-chaired Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign and backed her in 2016. Clinton had recorded robocalls on Pritzker's behalf ahead of the March 20 gubernatorial primary.
Florida gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum’s (D) campaign announced Clinton would appear at a rally with Gillum Oct. 23.
Clinton won Illinois by 16.9 percentage points in 2016. President Trump won Florida by 1.2 percentage points.
Polls indicate tightening race for California governor
A Public Policy Institute of California a poll released Sept. 26 showed Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) leading Republican nominee John Cox (R) 51-39 in California’s gubernatorial election. Ten percent of voters were undecided. The organization's previous poll, conducted in July, found Newsom ahead 55-31 percent, with 9 percent undecided.
Despite Cox's improved performance, polling suggests voters have yet to embrace his central campaign message, repealing the state gasoline tax. The Public Policy Institute poll found likely voters oppose Proposition 6, which would repeal the gas tax, by a 52-39 margin. An August Probolsky Research poll showed voters opposed the measure 48-36, while a June SurveyUSA poll found voters favored it 46-33.
Differing approaches toward office characterize Ohio auditor candidates' response to ECOT closure
Former Rep. Zack Space (D), who faces state Rep. Keith Faber (R) for Ohio's open auditor seat, said he would use the auditor's office as a platform to conduct investigations into what he called institutionalized corruption, citing the closure of the Electronic Classroom of Tomorrow (ECOT) charter school in January.
Space identified for-profit charter schools, the state Department of Medicaid’s response to the opioid crisis, and the impact of trade deals on local government as potential targets for investigation. Space said, "The auditor could and should impact policy, and this is a way to do that."
Faber said Space's comments show he doesn’t understand the auditor’s role in state government. Faber denied Space's claim that ECOT had been protected, citing the fact it had been closed. Faber said the auditor should not play a policymaking role, but should instead act as the state's chief compliance officer. "Your job isn’t to play party favorite, it’s to make sure that government’s accountable and transparent," Faber said.
Debate season has begun
General election season is kicking off with debates and candidate forums in key races across the country. Find coverage of debates held in the following races last week:
Ballotpedia has identified 21 state legislative battleground chambers--10 Democratic and 11 Republican--in 2018. Each week we will preview one chamber held by each party.
🔴 Colorado State Senate: 18-16 Republican majority with one independent
After a contentious legislative session in which four senators were accused of sexual misconduct or other inappropriate behavior, seven state Senate elections could decide control of the chamber and possibly the state government.
Democrats currently hold the state House and the governorship, both of which are expected to be competitive in November.
Democrats control five of the battleground Senate seats. Three of those seats are open because the incumbents aren't seeking re-election. Cheri Jahn, who left the Democratic Party to become an independent, and Sen. Andrew Kerr (D) are term-limited. Sen. Michael Merrifield (D) retired.
Two vulnerable Republicans include Sens. Tim Neville and Beth Martinez Humenik. Hillary Clinton won their districts in 2016. Overall, Republicans hold five Senate districts Clinton won, but three are not up for re-election until 2020. Donald Trump did not win any Democratic-held Senate districts.
🔵 Connecticut State Senate: 18-18 tie with Democratic-controlled tie-breaker
Republicans’ decade-long attempt to end Connecticut’s Democratic trifecta state government continues in 2018 as they again take aim at the state Senate.
After making slow gains in the Senate from 2010 to 2014, the GOP took 18 seats in 2016, leading to a tied chamber. Democrats maintained effective control because Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Wyman (D) could cast tie-breaking votes.
The GOP is pushing a message of fiscal responsibility in the face of a 2017 budget stalemate and low approval ratings for Gov. Dan Malloy (D). Republicans hope the message resonates in two vulnerable state Senate districts as well as races for the governorship and state House, both of which could also turn red this year.
Republicans need help to take the Senate. Both of the potentially vulnerable Democratic districts voted for Hillary Clinton by double digits in 2016 and both incumbents are seeking re-election. Republicans are defending four districts Clinton won, including two with first-term senators who defeated Democratic incumbents in 2016.
Voters in 38 states will decide 154 statewide ballot measures in November. Each week, we'll summarize trends in the issues voters will decide. For more on ballot measures, click here.
Voters in six states will consider ballot measures to cap, limit, or restrict types of taxes Nov. 6.
An additional initiative qualified for the California ballot but was withdrawn after proponents agreed to a compromise bill with legislators to keep the initiative off the ballot. The initiative would have required a two-thirds vote of the electorate on all local taxes, including soda taxes. The compromise legislation prohibited local soda taxes until 2031.
Here’s a list of the measures related to restricting taxes on the ballot in 2018:
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Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
Robert Jackson, Democratic candidate for the New York State Senate
 What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about? Why?
Government must level the playing field and fight for our children, our seniors and those least fortunate. We must give every child the chance to succeed, health care is a right not a privilege, and we must protect affordable housing so that seniors can stay here, young people can start here and the middle class can thrive. We are made strong by our diversity and we must promote equality, justice and fairness. Workers deserve good jobs with good benefits and we all need clean air to breath, clean water to drink and open spaces to enjoy. Those are the principle that have guided me as a labor representative, tenant leader and elected official and that I will fight for as the next State Senator.
Read all of Jackson's responses →
Roger Allison, Republican candidate for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
 What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about? Why?
I am on the board of directors of a local charter school and our children's educational system needs a revolution. NC spends upward of $11K per child ($13B annually) and they still finish at the bottom of state educational levels. Matter of fact, the norm in Durham, NC is that 33 percent of students can read, write or calculate math at their grade levels. The other 66 percent are 2-3 years behind before the 8th grade. Unacceptable. Better curriculum and methods are needed, but parents are also to blame as many single parents are uninvolved, yet they insist that their child graduates with their class. This causes apathy with the children and defiance of having to do anything they don't want to do.
I pay $969/month with a $7000 deductible for individual health care insurance. So, I must pay $19K per year before I receive my first $1 of benefit (Note: only 4 percent of the nation annually meets their deductible). A family pays upward of $2300/month so must pay more for health care coverage than the family pays for rent or mortgage! This especially hits the small business with less than 5 employees because employees are forced to adopt the expensive ACA as the only option. We must look at this differently. For example, 25 percent of the nation's primary care physicians offer "concierge" medicine options where they will cover a menu of outpatient expenses (e.g., visits, shots, lab, prescriptions) for a flat fee, usually $75/month. Combined with an affordable major medical/hospitalization plan, a combined monthly premium could cost 75 percent less than today's over-inflated policies. Employers have the opportunity to adopt self- and "stop-gap" insurance to reduce cost to employees as well. Once in Congress, I will work with the policy committee to replace the ACA with more logical and affordable options!
Read all of Allison's responses →
Election analysis: What we're reading
- Here’s Why White Women Are Abandoning the GOP The Atlantic
- Blue wave likely to be mere ripple Boston Herald
- Predictions of a 'Kavanaugh wave' in November. But for Democrats or GOP? NBC News
- Inside the Republican Plan to Win Hispanic Voters—And Battleground States Time
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