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Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 10, 2020
Primary: June 30, 2020
Primary runoff: August 25, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Tom Cole (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Oklahoma
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th
Oklahoma elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Oklahoma, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Tom Cole won election in the general election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 10, 2020
June 30, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Tom Cole, who was first elected in 2002. The race was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.

Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District is located in the south central portion of the state. Carter, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson, Love, McClain, Murray, Pontotoc, Stephens, and Tillman counties along with parts of Canadian and Oklahoma counties make up the district.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 32 28.8
Republican candidate Republican Party 65.6 67.8
Difference 33.6 39

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Oklahoma modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Voters casting absentee ballots could submit copies of their identification in lieu of fulfilling the notarization requirement in the event of a state of emergency occurring within 45 days of an election. Individuals experiencing symptoms indicative of COVID-19, and individuals classified as vulnerable to infection, could cast an absentee ballot under the 'physical incapacitation' eligibility criterion.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4

Incumbent Tom Cole defeated Mary Brannon and Bob White in the general election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tom Cole
Tom Cole (R)
 
67.8
 
213,096
Image of Mary Brannon
Mary Brannon (D)
 
28.8
 
90,459
Bob White (L)
 
3.4
 
10,803

Total votes: 314,358
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4

Mary Brannon defeated David Slemmons and John Argo in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4 on June 30, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mary Brannon
Mary Brannon
 
63.9
 
32,199
Image of David Slemmons
David Slemmons Candidate Connection
 
19.4
 
9,793
Image of John Argo
John Argo Candidate Connection
 
16.7
 
8,436

Total votes: 50,428
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4

Incumbent Tom Cole defeated James Taylor, Trevor Sipes, and Gilbert Sanders in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4 on June 30, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tom Cole
Tom Cole
 
76.3
 
55,699
Image of James Taylor
James Taylor
 
15.2
 
11,081
Image of Trevor Sipes
Trevor Sipes Candidate Connection
 
6.0
 
4,357
Image of Gilbert Sanders
Gilbert Sanders Candidate Connection
 
2.5
 
1,833

Total votes: 72,970
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Oklahoma. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Oklahoma with 65.3 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 28.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1904 and 2016, Oklahoma voted for the winning presidential candidate 72.4 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oklahoma supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 65.5 to 34.5 percent. The state favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oklahoma. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 8 out of 101 state House districts in Oklahoma with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 11 out of 101 state House districts in Oklahoma with an average margin of victory of 27.7 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 93 out of 101 state House districts in Oklahoma with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 90 out of 101 state House districts in Oklahoma with an average margin of victory of 42.2 points. Trump won 18 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+20, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 20 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District the 37th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Tom Cole Republican Party $1,816,062 $1,757,230 $1,277,189 As of December 31, 2020
Mary Brannon Democratic Party $2,956 $6,639 $1,734 As of December 30, 2020
Bob White Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4

Incumbent Tom Cole defeated Mary Brannon and Ruby Peters in the general election for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tom Cole
Tom Cole (R)
 
63.1
 
149,227
Image of Mary Brannon
Mary Brannon (D)
 
33.0
 
78,088
Ruby Peters (Independent)
 
3.9
 
9,323

Total votes: 236,638
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary runoff election

Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4

Mary Brannon defeated Fred Gipson in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mary Brannon
Mary Brannon
 
57.5
 
15,251
Image of Fred Gipson
Fred Gipson
 
42.5
 
11,268

Total votes: 26,519
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4

Mary Brannon and Fred Gipson advanced to a runoff. They defeated Mallory Varner and Roxann Klutts in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mary Brannon
Mary Brannon
 
34.4
 
25,757
Image of Fred Gipson
Fred Gipson
 
30.4
 
22,756
Mallory Varner
 
18.6
 
13,953
Roxann Klutts
 
16.7
 
12,493

Total votes: 74,959
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4

Incumbent Tom Cole defeated James Taylor in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 4 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tom Cole
Tom Cole
 
64.7
 
55,929
Image of James Taylor
James Taylor
 
35.3
 
30,461

Total votes: 86,390
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2016

See also: Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Tom Cole (R) defeated Christina Owen (D) and Sevier White (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Cole defeated James Taylor and Shawn Roberts in the Republican primary, while Owen defeated Bert Smith to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on June 28, 2016.[12][13][14]

U.S. House, Oklahoma District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom Cole Incumbent 69.6% 204,143
     Democratic Christina Owen 26.1% 76,472
     Libertarian Sevier White 4.3% 12,574
Total Votes 293,189
Source: Oklahoma State Election Board


U.S. House, Oklahoma, District 4 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTom Cole Incumbent 71.4% 28,813
James Taylor 18.3% 7,398
Shawn Roberts 10.3% 4,151
Total Votes 40,362
Source: Oklahoma State Election Board


U.S. House, Oklahoma, District 4 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngChristina Owen 62.2% 16,314
Bert Smith 37.8% 9,922
Total Votes 26,236
Source: Oklahoma State Election Board

2014

See also: Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Oklahoma held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Tom Cole (R) defeated Bert Smith (D) and Dennis B. Johnson (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Oklahoma District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom Cole Incumbent 70.8% 117,721
     Democratic Bert Smith 24.7% 40,998
     Independent Dennis B. Johnson 4.5% 7,549
Total Votes 166,268
Source: Oklahoma State Election Board

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Tom Cole (R)
District 5
Republican Party (7)