Early polls in Wisconsin recalls reveal tight races

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June 28, 2011

By Geoff Pallay and Greg Janetka

Seal of Wisconsin.svg.png
2011 Wisconsin Senate Recalls
Senators Facing Recall
Robert Cowles • Alberta Darling • Sheila Harsdorf • Dave Hansen • Jim Holperin • Randy Hopper • Dan Kapanke • Luther Olsen • Robert Wirch
Other Recall Information
Recalls by Year • Recall Law in Wisconsin • Recall laws in other states • Recalls in Wisconsin • 2011 Scott Walker Budget Repair Bill • Protests over Budget Repair Bill • Wisconsin Government Accountability Board • Recall timeline • Election Results

MADISON, Wisconsin: As the recalls draw closer, polls are likely to be released in droves as groups try to gauge voter sentiment.

Three early polls conducted by Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos show Democratic challengers ahead in two recalls and trailing in one. The polls, conducted June 23-26 of likely voters, are the first commissioned by Daily Kos, who say they will be conducting more. All three have a margin of error under +/- 3%. Here are the results:[1]

Harsdorf/Moore

August 9, 2011 Recall - District 10 - Daily Kos/PPP Poll
Candidate Party Percent
Sheila Harsdorf Ends.png Republican 50%
Shelly Moore Electiondot.png Democratic 45%
Undecided 5%

Out of the three races, Moore is the only challenger not holding elected office. Democrats are saying that, because of this, the public is not yet very familiar with her. Moore was a recent target of an ad by the Wisconsin Club for Growth, and in response We Are Wisconsin issued an ad defending Moore and targeting Harsdorf.[2] [3]

Harsdorf defeated Allison Page in 2008 with 54% of the vote.[4][5]

Wisconsin State Senate, District 10 (2008)
Candidates Votes
Green check mark transparent.png Sheila Harsdorf (R) 55,816
Alison Page 43,041

Hopper/King

August 9, 2011 Recall - District 18 - Daily Kos/PPP Poll
Candidate Party Percent
Jessica King Electiondot.png Democratic 50%
Randy Hopper Ends.png Republican 47%
Undecided 3%

In the 2008 race for District 18, Hopper narrowly defeated King by 163 votes.[5]

Wisconsin State Senate, District 18 (2008)
Candidates Votes Percent
Randy Hopper (R) 41,904 50.05%
Jessica King (D) 41,741 49.86%

Kapanke/Shilling

August 9, 2011 Recall - District 32 - Daily Kos/PPP Poll
Candidate Party Percent
Jennifer Shilling Electiondot.png Democratic 56%
Dan Kapanke Ends.png Republican 42%
Undecided 3%

In 2008, Kapanke defeated Tara Johnson by less than 3,000 votes.[5]

Wisconsin State Senate, District 32 (2008)
Candidates Votes
Green check mark transparent.png Dan Kapanke (R) 45,454
Tara Johnson (D) 42,647

Shilling herself easily won re-election to the state Assembly in 2010 over Republican Nick Charles.

Wisconsin State Assembly, District 95 General Election (2010)
Candidates Votes
Green check mark transparent.png Jennifer Shilling (D) 11,893
Nick Charles (R) 6,790
Did You Know?

In the 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama won all nine of the senate districts which are holding recall elections.[6]

Nygren lawsuit to be heard Friday

Following the decision of the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board to remove him from the ballot for failing to meet the required number of valid signatures by two, state Assemblyman John Nygren (R) filed a suit on Tuesday challenging the decision. According to Nygren, the Board acted in haste and struck valid signatures.[7] Nygren is asking that his signature on the nomination papers as a circulator be counted towards his total, along with counting a signature that was struck because the signer listed his work address, which is not in the district, instead of his home address, which is.

Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Mike Tate called Nygren’s appeal a "joke," saying, "400 signatures is not hard to get."[8]

The case is set to be heard in Dane County Circuit Court at 9 a.m. CST on Friday.[9]

If Nygren is not reinstated to the ballot, then the recall election of Dave Hansen will take place on July 19 between Hansen and David VanderLeest.

Seattle concert

A benefit concert for the AFL-CIO and We Are Wisconsin will be taking place in Seattle on June 10. The concert, which will also be streamed online, is the second to be held there in support of the recalls against Republicans.[10] The first, held June 18, was a benefit for the Wisconsin Recall Task Force.[11]

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Daily Kos, "WI Recall: New Daily Kos polling shows path to victory," June 28, 2011
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Right wing money flood in Wisconsin recalls," June 20, 2011
  3. ↑ We Are Wisconsin, "We Are Wisconsin is launching our first television ad of the recall campaigns," June 23, 2011
  4. ↑ Dane101, "Total Recall:Trio of polls show split results in three recall districts," June 28, 2011
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Follow the Money, "2008 campaign contributions," accessed December 29, 2014
  6. ↑ Swing State Project, "Wisconsin Presidential Results by State Senate District," February 21, 2011
  7. ↑ Greenfield Daily Reporter, "Hearing Friday for Wis. lawmaker’s suit seeking to have his name included as recall challenger," June 29, 2011
  8. ↑ WisPolitics, "Tate calls Nygren appeal a ‘joke,’" June 29, 2011
  9. ↑ GazetteXtra, "Hearing on Rep. Nygren’s lawsuit set for Friday," June 29, 2011 (dead link)
  10. ↑ WisconsinRecall.net, "Total Recall: Get Out the Vote," June 29, 2011
  11. ↑ The Stand, "Seattle concert Saturday to benefit WI recall," June 16, 2011
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