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Election results, 2022: Comparison of 2020 presidential and 2022 U.S. House midterm results

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Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses
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Comparison of 2020 presidential and 2022 U.S. House midterm results
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Analysis of rejected ballots

Elections by state

In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans gained a 222-212 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives by gaining a net of nine Congressional seats. Those elections took place under new Congressional district boundaries that were redrawn after the 2020 Census. Heading into the election, Daily Kos published an analysis of how voters in the post-2020 Census Congressional district boundaries would have voted in the 2020 presidential election.[1]

How did voter behavior in the 2022 U.S. House races change compared to the 2020 presidential election?

Florida's 26th Congressional District saw the largest swing towards the same party. Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart (R) improved on former President Donald Trump's (R) margin of victory in the district by 23.5 percentage points.

Alaska's at-large congressional district saw the largest swing in a district that changed party control. Incumbent Mary Peltola (D), who took office after winning an August 2022 special election, won the state by 10 percentage points in 2022 after Trump won the state by 10.1 percentage points in 2020, resulting in a 20.1 percentage point swing towards Democrats. Click here to view a list of the largest differences between 2020 presidential and 2022 U.S. House margins.

In two districts, the margins of victory in the 2020 presidential election and 2022 midterms matched. Incumbent Al Green (D), of Texas' 9th, and Greg Casar (D), of Texas' 35th, won their districts by the same margin President Joe Biden (D) did in the 2020 presidential election. Click here to view a list of the smallest differences between 2020 presidential and 2022 U.S. House margins.

Note: This article uses certified election results, which may differ from results reported on election night. It does not include uncontested races, races without major party competition, and races where more than one Democrat or Republican ran.

Largest margin differences

The table below shows the congressional districts with the largest differences in margin between 2020 presidential results and 2022 U.S. House results.

Largest gaps between 2020 presidential results and 2022 U.S. House results
District 2020 presidential margin 2022 U.S. House margin Difference
Florida's 26th Trump +18.3 R+41.8 R+23.5
Florida's 28th Trump +6.4 R+27.4 R+21.0
Alaska at-large Trump +10.1 D+10.0 D+20.1
New York's 2nd Trump +1.5 R+21.5 R+20.0
Ohio's 10th Trump +3.5 R+23.4 R+19.9
California's 27th Biden +12.4 R+6.4 R+18.8
Washington's 4th Trump +16.9 R+35.3 R+18.4
New York's 4th Biden +14.6 R+3.6 R+18.2
Kentucky's 6th Trump +11.0 R+29.1 R+18.1
Hawaii's 1st Biden +29.4 D+47.4 D+18.0

Smallest margin differences

The table below shows the congressional districts with the smallest differences in margin between 2020 presidential results and 2022 U.S. House results.

Smallest gaps between 2020 presidential results and 2022 U.S. House results
District 2020 presidential margin 2022 U.S. House margin Difference
Texas' 9th Biden +53.4 D+53.4 D+0
Texas' 35th Biden +45.2 D+45.2 D+0
Illinois' 10th Biden +25.9 D+26.0 D+0.1
Arizona's 2nd Trump +7.9 R+7.8 R+0.1
Wyoming at-large Trump +43.7 R+43.8 R+0.1
Massachusetts' 6th Biden +27.6 D+27.8 D+0.2
Massachusetts' 9th Biden +18.2 D+18.4 D+0.2
Washington's 8th Biden +6.7 D+6.9 D+0.2
Iowa's 3rd Trump +0.4 R+0.6 R+0.2
California's 12th Biden +80.7 D+81.0 D+0.3
Georgia's 2nd Biden +10.3 D+10.0 R+0.3
Massachusetts' 3rd Biden +27.4 D+27.1 R+0.3
Maryland's 6th Biden +9.8 D+9.5 R+0.3

All districts

See the table below for all district comparisons. Districts highlighted in yellow elected a U.S. House member in 2022 from a different party than the presidential nominee the district voted for.

2020 presidential election results under post-2020 Congressional district boundaries

The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election based on analysis from Daily Kos.[1] This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts.

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed January 11, 2023
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