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Margin of victory analysis for the 2022 state legislative elections

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Elections by state

On November 8, 2022, 88 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections for 6,278 seats, meaning that 85.0% of all state legislative seats were up for election.

Democrats gained control of four chambers—the Michigan House and Senate, Minnesota Senate, and Pennsylvania House—bringing their total to 40. The changes in Minnesota and Michigan created Democratic trifectas. Republicans lost control of those five chambers, bringing their total to 57. In Alaska, a bipartisan coalition gained control of the Senate. The coalition in the House changed from being made primarily of Democrats and independents to one made primarily of Republicans.

Across all 6,278 seats up for election, the average margin of victory was 27.7%. An electoral margin of victory (MOV) is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the second-place candidate in an election. Only races with more than one candidate were included in this average.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Major-party candidates won 875 seats by margins of 10% or less; 471 of those seats were won by Democrats and 404 by Republicans.
  • The average margin of victory was 26.8% for Democrats and 28.6% for Republicans.
  • The chamber with the smallest average margin of victory in 2022 was the New Hampshire House of Representatives (10.6%), followed by the South Dakota House of Representatives (12.3%) and the Arizona House of Representatives (12.4%).

    • On this page, you will find an overview of average margins of victory by chamber, a detailed breakdown of each legislative chamber's margins of victory, and a closer look at the races decided by margins of 0.5% or smaller.

    To learn more about margins of victory in the previous even-year state legislative elections (2020), click here. That year, across the 5,875 seats up for election, the average margin of victory was 27.0%. Major-party candidates won 928 seats by margins of 10% or less—444 of those seats were won by Democrats and 484 by Republicans.

    Margin of victory

    The margin of victory is the difference between the vote share received by a winning candidate and the runner-up. For example, if Candidate A wins an election with 55 percent of the vote and Candidate B, the second-place finisher, wins 45 percent of the vote, the winner's margin of victory is 10 percent. In chambers with multimember districts, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the winning candidate with the fewest votes and the losing candidate with the most votes. Margins of victory can be used to measure electoral competitiveness, political party or candidate strength, and, indirectly, the popularity of a particular policy or set of policies.

    Upper chamber average margins of victory

    The table below shows the number of seats up for election and the average margin of victory in each state legislative upper chamber.

    Average MOV for state legislative upper chamber elections, 2022
    Chamber Seats up for election Average margin of victory
    Alabama State Senate 35 53.6%
    Alaska State Senate 19 20.3%
    Arizona State Senate 30 28.4%
    Arkansas State Senate 35 41.9%
    California State Senate 20 17.9%
    Colorado State Senate 17 19.8%
    Connecticut State Senate 36 19.9%
    Delaware State Senate 21 26.4%
    Florida State Senate 40 25.5%
    Georgia State Senate 56 33.4%
    Hawaii State Senate 25 39.5%
    Idaho State Senate 35 37.0%
    Illinois State Senate 59 24.6%
    Indiana State Senate 25 30.5%
    Iowa State Senate 34 27.7%
    Kentucky State Senate 19 38.5%
    Maine State Senate 35 22.7%
    Maryland State Senate 47 40.6%
    Massachusetts State Senate 40 26.5%
    Michigan State Senate 38 25.2%
    Minnesota State Senate 67 26.7%
    Missouri State Senate 17 41.3%
    Montana State Senate 25 19.9%
    Nebraska State Senate 24 17.7%
    Nevada State Senate 11 16.0%
    New Hampshire State Senate 24 15.6%
    New York State Senate 63 26.3%
    North Carolina State Senate 50 27.3%
    North Dakota State Senate 32 28.8%
    Ohio State Senate 17 39.0%
    Oklahoma State Senate 24 28.9%
    Oregon State Senate 15 21.8%
    Pennsylvania State Senate 25 27.2%
    Rhode Island State Senate 38 28.0%
    South Dakota State Senate 35 25.0%
    Tennessee State Senate 17 51.0%
    Texas State Senate 31 31.3%
    Utah State Senate 15 43.0%
    Vermont State Senate 30 15.4%
    Washington State Senate 24 30.2%
    West Virginia State Senate 17 28.6%
    Wisconsin State Senate 17 25.7%
    Wyoming State Senate 16 39.2%
    Totals 1,300 29.2%

    Lower chamber average margins of victory

    The table below shows the number of seats up for election and the average margin of victory in each state legislative lower chamber.

    Average MOV for state legislative lower chamber elections, 2022
    Chamber Seats up for election Average margin of victory
    Alabama House of Representatives 105 57.4%
    Alaska House of Representatives 40 21.6%
    Arizona House of Representatives 60 12.4%
    Arkansas House of Representatives 100 39.1%
    California State Assembly 80 24.5%
    Colorado House of Representatives 65 26.3%
    Connecticut House of Representatives 151 23.0%
    Delaware House of Representatives 41 34.2%
    Florida House of Representatives 120 26.2%
    Georgia House of Representatives 180 33.7%
    Hawaii House of Representatives 51 36.8%
    Idaho House of Representatives 70 33.3%
    Illinois House of Representatives 118 28.9%
    Indiana House of Representatives 100 32.5%
    Iowa House of Representatives 100 26.0%
    Kansas House of Representatives 125 23.3%
    Kentucky House of Representatives 100 34.8%
    Maine House of Representatives 151 23.5%
    Maryland House of Delegates 141 19.5%
    Massachusetts House of Representatives 160 25.1%
    Michigan House of Representatives 110 26.9%
    Minnesota House of Representatives 134 28.1%
    Missouri House of Representatives 163 30.0%
    Montana House of Representatives 100 26.9%
    Nevada State Assembly 42 19.6%
    New Hampshire House of Representatives 400 10.6%
    New Mexico House of Representatives 70 25.1%
    New York State Assembly 150 33.6%
    North Carolina House of Representatives 120 27.2%
    North Dakota House of Representatives 66 15.8%
    Ohio House of Representatives 99 32.0%
    Oklahoma House of Representatives 101 28.7%
    Oregon House of Representatives 60 31.7%
    Pennsylvania House of Representatives 203 27.6%
    Rhode Island House of Representatives 75 24.9%
    South Carolina House of Representatives 124 27.9%
    South Dakota House of Representatives 70 12.3%
    Tennessee House of Representatives 99 41.0%
    Texas House of Representatives 150 32.6%
    Utah House of Representatives 75 34.9%
    Vermont House of Representatives 150 19.9%
    Washington House of Representatives 98 27.4%
    West Virginia House of Delegates 100 30.4%
    Wisconsin State Assembly 99 27.3%
    Wyoming House of Representatives 62 33.1%
    Totals 4,978 27.9%

    Election results by chamber

    The chart below displays the breakdown of races by the winner's partisan affiliation and margin of victory for each state legislative chamber with single-member districts which held elections in 2022. A darker shade of red or blue indicates a larger margin for that party. The table below displays how many seats were up for election in each chamber and how many seats each party won. It also includes a breakdown of how many seats Democrats and Republicans won by 10% or less and without opposition in each chamber, as well as the average margin of victory for each party. Click on a particular header to sort the table.

    Average MOV for state legislative elections, 2022
    Chamber Seats up for election Democratic Party Seats won by Democrats Democratic Party Seats won by Democrats by margins of 10% or less Democratic Party Seats won by unopposed Democrats Democratic Party Average margin of victory for Democrats Republican Party Seats won by Republicans Republican Party Seats won by Republicans by margins of 10% or less Republican Party Seats won by unopposed Republicans Republican Party Average margin of victory for Republicans Grey.png Seats won by independent and minor party candidates
    Alabama House of Representatives 105 28 1 19 40.3% 77 2 39 61.5% 0
    Alabama State Senate 35 8 1 3 48.7% 27 0 15 55.7% 0
    Alaska House of Representatives 40 13 4 1 23.7% 21 7 2 20.9% 6
    Alaska State Senate 19 8 2 1 17.8% 11 3 0 21.9% 0
    Arizona House of Representatives 60 14 4 4 12.8% 16 10 3 12.0% 0
    Arizona State Senate 30 14 3 2 34.4% 16 3 3 23.0% 0
    Arkansas House of Representatives 100 18 3 10 32.1% 82 6 34 40.3% 0
    Arkansas State Senate 35 6 1 2 37.8% 29 1 12 42.8% 0
    California State Assembly 80 62 10 1 25.7% 18 5 1 20.0% 0
    California State Senate 20 15 5 0 17.6% 5 1 0 18.8% 0
    Colorado House of Representatives 65 46 11 1 27.0% 19 0 3 24.5% 0
    Colorado State Senate 17 11 4 1 16.3% 6 1 1 26.9% 0
    Connecticut House of Representatives 151 98 18 23 27.4% 53 19 14 14.3% 0
    Connecticut State Senate 36 24 7 3 22.4% 12 4 0 15.5% 0
    Delaware House of Representatives 41 26 2 6 31.0% 15 1 7 42.1% 0
    Delaware State Senate 21 15 2 6 19.2% 6 0 4 59.2% 0
    Florida House of Representatives 120 35 8 14 21.7% 85 9 31 28.0% 0
    Florida State Senate 40 12 2 5 12.8% 28 4 10 30.5% 0
    Georgia House of Representatives 180 79 3 42 34.5% 101 5 50 33.1% 0
    Georgia State Senate 56 23 2 14 35.4% 33 0 16 32.3% 0
    Hawaii House of Representatives 51 45 2 6 39.7% 6 3 1 14.5% 0
    Hawaii State Senate 25 23 1 2 41.2% 2 1 1 2.5% 0
    Idaho House of Representatives 70 11 3 0 20.6% 59 3 34 38.9% 0
    Idaho State Senate 35 7 3 0 17.7% 28 1 16 48.3% 0
    Illinois House of Representatives 118 78 10 13 31.9% 40 5 26 15.2% 0
    Illinois State Senate 59 40 6 18 27.6% 19 3 14 11.2% 0
    Indiana House of Representatives 100 30 6 13 19.8% 70 4 29 37.7% 0
    Indiana State Senate 25 3 2 0 17.5% 22 1 8 33.3% 0
    Iowa House of Representatives 100 36 8 16 24.0% 64 5 21 26.9% 0
    Iowa State Senate 34 12 2 4 31.3% 22 2 4 26.0% 0
    Kansas House of Representatives 125 40 8 18 20.3% 85 10 44 25.0% 0
    Kentucky House of Representatives 100 20 4 11 19.4% 80 4 39 38.2% 0
    Kentucky State Senate 19 2 0 1 20.9% 17 0 8 40.5% 0
    Maine House of Representatives 151 82 13 13 26.9% 67 15 11 20.0% 2
    Maine State Senate 35 22 6 0 22.2% 13 2 0 23.5% 0
    Maryland House of Delegates 141 46 9 16 15.0% 25 3 11 29.1% 0
    Maryland State Senate 47 34 4 11 41.0% 13 0 6 39.2% 0
    Massachusetts House of Representatives 160 134 10 94 26.1% 25 3 14 21.4% 1
    Massachusetts State Senate 40 37 3 17 25.9% 3 0 1 32.3% 0
    Michigan House of Representatives 110 56 11 1 29.8% 54 9 0 24.0% 0
    Michigan State Senate 38 20 3 0 27.1% 18 3 0 23.1% 0
    Minnesota House of Representatives 134 70 13 11 28.5% 64 12 4 27.7% 0
    Minnesota State Senate 67 34 6 5 28.4% 33 7 3 25.1% 0
    Missouri House of Representatives 163 52 10 26 21.9% 111 8 62 34.2% 0
    Missouri State Senate 17 3 1 0 52.2% 14 0 4 38.0% 0
    Montana House of Representatives 100 32 6 3 24.4% 68 6 27 28.6% 0
    Montana State Senate 25 9 2 0 18.6% 16 2 7 21.2% 0
    Nebraska State Senate 24 7 5 0 12.8% 17 4 3 20.1% 0
    Nevada State Assembly 42 28 10 0 16.5% 14 0 5 29.2% 0
    Nevada State Senate 11 7 3 0 13.3% 4 0 2 25.3% 0
    New Hampshire House of Representatives 400 109 55 18 13.6% 93 66 2 7.5% 1
    New Hampshire State Senate 24 10 2 1 19.8% 14 5 1 12.7% 0
    New Mexico House of Representatives 70 45 10 18 23.9% 25 5 12 27.5% 0
    New York State Assembly 150 102 16 29 37.0% 48 5 15 26.0% 0
    New York State Senate 63 41 11 13 27.4% 22 4 6 24.3% 0
    North Carolina House of Representatives 120 49 9 7 29.0% 71 12 30 25.3% 0
    North Carolina State Senate 50 20 6 1 27.3% 30 4 13 27.4% 0
    North Dakota House of Representatives 66 8 4 1 14.4% 27 3 15 16.6% 0
    North Dakota State Senate 32 4 1 1 17.1% 28 2 17 31.9% 0
    Ohio House of Representatives 99 32 6 8 27.0% 67 9 14 34.2% 0
    Ohio State Senate 17 6 0 1 41.0% 11 2 2 38.0% 0
    Oklahoma House of Representatives 101 20 3 8 26.0% 81 7 41 29.5% 0
    Oklahoma State Senate 24 6 0 3 27.2% 18 2 8 29.4% 0
    Oregon House of Representatives 60 35 10 0 32.7% 25 4 3 30.2% 0
    Oregon State Senate 15 10 3 0 19.9% 5 1 0 25.7% 0
    Pennsylvania House of Representatives 203 102 9 28 28.5% 101 10 47 26.4% 0
    Pennsylvania State Senate 25 12 2 2 25.7% 13 3 2 28.5% 0
    Rhode Island House of Representatives 75 65 7 25 25.6% 9 1 2 24.4% 1
    Rhode Island State Senate 38 33 1 9 30.0% 5 1 1 15.8% 0
    South Carolina House of Representatives 124 36 5 17 21.8% 88 4 55 31.5% 0
    South Dakota House of Representatives 70 4 3 0 9.6% 33 12 12 12.9% 0
    South Dakota State Senate 35 4 2 0 9.6% 31 2 20 30.6% 0
    Tennessee House of Representatives 99 24 2 17 23.3% 75 2 37 44.3% 0
    Tennessee State Senate 17 4 0 1 61.0% 13 0 6 46.7% 0
    Texas House of Representatives 150 64 1 22 34.5% 86 3 36 31.1% 0
    Texas State Senate 31 12 1 3 26.9% 19 0 7 34.7% 0
    Utah House of Representatives 75 14 2 2 27.2% 61 4 25 37.4% 0
    Utah State Senate 15 4 0 0 44.8% 11 0 5 41.8% 0
    Vermont House of Representatives 150 79 13 32 22.0% 27 7 12 12.0% 3
    Vermont State Senate 30 12 2 1 17.5% 4 2 2 3.3% 0
    Washington House of Representatives 98 58 6 7 29.9% 40 7 12 22.8% 0
    Washington State Senate 24 17 4 2 30.9% 7 0 3 27.4% 0
    West Virginia House of Delegates 100 12 6 1 18.5% 88 7 19 32.3% 0
    West Virginia State Senate 17 1 1 0 7.8% 16 1 2 30.1% 0
    Wisconsin State Assembly 99 35 2 9 31.8% 64 6 10 25.1% 0
    Wisconsin State Senate 17 5 1 0 26.5% 12 2 4 25.2% 0
    Wyoming House of Representatives 62 5 2 1 20.1% 57 2 30 35.0% 0
    Wyoming State Senate 16 2 0 0 28.4% 14 0 8 42.8% 0
    Totals 6,278 2,676 471 745 26.8% 3,172 404 1,186 28.6% 14

    State legislative races decided by 10% or less

    In 2022, there were 882 races decided by margins of 10% or less. The map below shows the percentage of races in each state decided by margins of 10% or less.

    State legislative races decided by 0.5% or less

    In 2022, there were 65 races decided by margins of 0.5% or smaller.

    State legislative races decided by 0.5% or less, 2022
    District Winner Runner-up Margin (%) Margin (number of votes)
    New Hampshire House of Representatives District Strafford 8 N/A N/A N/A Tied
    Massachusetts House of Representatives Second Essex District Democratic Party Kristin Kassner Republican Party Leonard Mirra 0.00% 1
    Connecticut House of Representatives District 81 Democratic Party Christopher Poulos Republican Party Tony Morrison 0.01% 1
    California State Senate District 16 Democratic Party Melissa Hurtado Republican Party David Shepard 0.01% 20
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Belknap 6 Republican Party Richard Beaudoin Democratic Party Lisa DiMartino 0.02% 4
    New York State Assembly District 99 Democratic Party Christopher Eachus Republican Party Kathryn Luciani 0.02% 8
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 29 Democratic Party Judi Lanza Republican Party Doug Pounds 0.03% 7
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Strafford 4 Democratic Party Heath Howard Democratic Party Matthew Towne 0.04% 7
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Coos 7 Democratic Party Eamon Kelley Republican Party John Greer 0.04% 2
    New York State Assembly District 23 Democratic Party Stacey G. Pheffer Amato Republican Party Thomas Sullivan 0.05% 15
    New Hampshire House of Representatives District Grafton 18 Republican Party John Sellers Democratic Party Carolyn Fluehr-Lobban 0.05% 4
    California State Assembly District 47 Republican Party Greg Wallis Democratic Party Christy Holstege 0.05% 85
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 42 Republican Party Keith Ammon Democratic Party Karen Roach 0.05% 8
    North Dakota House of Representatives District 43 Democratic Party Zac Ista Democratic Party Mary Adams 0.06% 4
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 2 Democratic Party Loren Foxx Republican Party John Schneller 0.06% 47
    Minnesota House of Representatives District 3A Republican Party Roger Skraba Democratic Party Rob Ecklund 0.07% 15
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Rockingham 1 Republican Party Jacob Brouillard Democratic Party Keith McGuigan 0.07% 10
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Rockingham 5 Democratic Party Mark Vallone Republican Party Cody Belanger 0.08% 5
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 45 Democratic Party Karen Calabro Republican Party Colton Skorupan 0.08% 7
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Sullivan 8 Republican Party Jonathan Stone Republican Party Don Bettencourt 0.08% 14
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 12 Republican Party Bob Healey Republican Party Melissa Blasek 0.08% 75
    Massachusetts House of Representatives First Middlesex District Democratic Party Margaret Scarsdale Republican Party Andrew Shepherd 0.09% 17
    Iowa House of Representatives District 20 Democratic Party Josh Turek Republican Party Sarah Abdouch 0.09% 6
    Vermont House of Representatives Rutland-2 District Republican Party Arthur Peterson Democratic Party Dave Potter 0.09% 7
    Iowa House of Representatives District 81 Republican Party Luana Stoltenberg Democratic Party Craig Lynn Cooper 0.11% 11
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Merrimack 5 Republican Party Deborah Aylward Democratic Party Ken Wells 0.11% 8
    Vermont House of Representatives Grand Isle-Chittenden District Democratic Party Josie Leavitt Republican Party Andy Paradee 0.12% 10
    Arkansas House of Representatives District 56 Democratic Party Steve Magie Republican Party Trent Minner 0.12% 10
    Alaska House of Representatives District 15 Republican Party Thomas McKay Democratic Party Denny Wells 0.12% 9
    Connecticut House of Representatives District 134 Democratic Party Sarah Keitt Republican Party Meghan McCloat 0.14% 14
    Minnesota House of Representatives District 3B Republican Party Natalie Zeleznikar Democratic Party Mary Murphy 0.15% 33
    Iowa House of Representatives District 42 Democratic Party Heather Matson Republican Party Garrett Gobble 0.16% 23
    Maryland House of Delegates District 9A Democratic Party Chao Wu Republican Party Trent Kittleman 0.17% 113
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Belknap 5 Republican Party Steven Bogert Republican Party Richard Littlefield 0.17% 38
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Rockingham 29 Republican Party Tracy Emerick Democratic Party Matthew Saunders 0.18% 62
    Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 151 Democratic Party Melissa Cerrato Republican Party Todd Stephens 0.19% 63
    Arizona House of Representatives District 13 Republican Party Liz Harris Republican Party Julie Willoughby 0.20% 270
    Connecticut State Senate District 36 Republican Party Ryan Fazio Democratic Party Trevor Crow 0.21% 89
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Strafford 19 Republican Party Kelley Potenza Republican Party Fenton Groen 0.22% 62
    Kentucky House of Representatives District 88 Democratic Party Cherlynn Stevenson Republican Party Jim Coleman 0.23% 37
    Idaho House of Representatives District 26A Democratic Party Ned Burns Republican Party Mike Pohanka 0.23% 37
    Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 142 Republican Party Joseph Hogan Democratic Party Mark Moffa 0.25% 76
    Michigan State Senate District 12 Democratic Party Kevin Hertel Republican Party Pamela Hornberger 0.25% 313
    New York State Assembly District 21 Republican Party Brian Curran Democratic Party Judy Griffin 0.27% 138
    Connecticut State Senate District 8 Republican Party Lisa Seminara Democratic Party Paul Honig 0.27% 124
    Washington House of Representatives District 10-Position 1 Democratic Party Clyde Shavers Republican Party Greg Gilday 0.28% 211
    Indiana House of Representatives District 62 Republican Party Dave Hall Democratic Party Penny Githens 0.28% 74
    Michigan State Senate District 30 Republican Party Mark Huizenga Democratic Party David LaGrand 0.30% 391
    New Mexico House of Representatives District 68 Democratic Party Charlotte Little Republican Party Robert Moss 0.31% 35
    Texas State Senate District 27 Democratic Party Morgan LaMantia Republican Party Adam Hinojosa 0.32% 569
    California State Assembly District 40 Democratic Party Pilar Schiavo Republican Party Suzette Martinez Valladares 0.33% 522
    Missouri House of Representatives District 34 Democratic Party Kemp Strickler Republican Party J.C. Crossley 0.34% 45
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 16 Republican Party Larry Gagne Democratic Party Maxine Mosley 0.36% 26
    Vermont State Senate Rutland District Republican Party David Weeks Democratic Party Anna Tadio 0.38% 250
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Sullivan 6 Republican Party Walter Stapleton Democratic Party Andrew O'Hearne 0.38% 47
    Connecticut House of Representatives District 138 Republican Party Rachel Chaleski Democratic Party Kenneth Gucker 0.39% 26
    Delaware House of Representatives District 21 Republican Party Michael Ramone Democratic Party Frank Burns 0.40% 35
    Ohio House of Representatives District 5 Democratic Party Richard Brown Republican Party Ronald Beach IV 0.42% 145
    Missouri House of Representatives District 17 Republican Party Bill Allen Democratic Party Mark Ellebracht 0.43% 49
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Rockingham 16 Republican Party Wayne MacDonald Democratic Party Ted Combes 0.45% 330
    Florida House of Representatives District 106 Republican Party Fabián Basabe Democratic Party Jordan Leonard 0.46% 242
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Rockingham 13 Republican Party David Milz Democratic Party Elizabeth Greenberg 0.47% 472
    New Hampshire House of Representatives Hillsborough 43 Republican Party Bill King Democratic Party Scott Lawrence 0.47% 115
    Rhode Island House of Representatives District 39 Democratic Party Megan Cotter Republican Party Justin Price 0.48% 32
    Maine House of Representatives District 106 Republican Party Barbara Bagshaw Democratic Party Dana Reed 0.49% 23

    See also

    Footnotes

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