Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 31 (September 4, 2018)
This week: Primaries in Massachusetts and Delaware. With New England in the spotlight, there is no Republican newsletter this week. Click here to follow future developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: None
Passed filing deadlines: 51 (including Washington, D.C.)
Upcoming elections: Sept. 4 (Massachusetts), Sept. 6 (Delaware), Sept. 11 (New Hampshire)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,186 Democrats, 1,034 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“The idea is to energize core Democratic constituencies and to win over white voters who are now alienated by both the xenophobic nationalism and the corrupt plutocracy of Trumpism.
It’s early days, but Gillum’s candidacy — which already showed a capacity to energize those Democratic constituencies, and will now play out in a big, diverse swing state — is already taking on those echoes. And if Gillum can pull it off, you can bet that 2020 Democrats will be taking some big lessons from it.”
- Greg Sargent, Washington Post, Aug. 29, 2018
“But persuading people who don’t normally vote to do so can be extremely difficult. Voting is time-consuming and inconvenient, and many Americans think their vote doesn’t matter. And in basic arithmetic terms, winning over a swing voter is twice as valuable as turning out an infrequent voter from the left.
In Gillum’s case, I think he is emphasizing a couple of issues that will turn off some swing voters. These issues include gun control and the abolishment of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, known as ICE.”
- David Leonhardt, New York Times, Aug. 30, 2018
Massachusetts
Zakim, Galvin face off in rare executive primary
Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin’s (D) bid for a seventh term faces some rare obstacles.
Boston City Councilor Josh Zakim (D) is challenging Galvin in a primary. Galvin last faced a primary challenger, John Bonifaz (D) in 2006 -- a race Galvin won by 66 percentage points.
But Zakim also has the state party’s endorsed -- the first time since 1982 the party has endorsed a challenger to an incumbent Democrat and the first time the party has declined to endorse Galvin since he was elected in 1994.
Zakim says Galvin is out of touch and is responsible for what Zakim characterizes as the state’s low voter turnout rates. He supports earlier primaries, easier early voting, weekend elections, and same-day voter registration. In addition to the state party endorsement, Boston Mayor Marty Walsh (D) also backs Zakim.
Galvin’s is campaigning on his record, including the creation of a central voter registration system, the introduction of motor voter registration, and a 1997 decision to eliminate the use of punch cards in elections.
Capuano faces first contested primary in two decades in MA-07
Incumbent Rep. Michael Capuano (D) faces his first contested primary in two decades against Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley (D) in Massachusetts’ 7th Congressional District.
The 7th is the state's only majority-minority district. Pressley, who is black, said, "This district and these times demand more than an ally, they demand an advocate and a champion." Her endorsers include Justice Democrats, Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey (D), and Boston City Councilor Michelle Wu.
Pressley is running as a change candidate and has criticized Capuano for compromising too much on key issues, including immigration and abortion.
The Congressional Black Caucus endorsed Capuano. Capuano has also consolidated support from other party leaders in the state, including former Gov. Deval Patrick (D).
Ten candidates fight for open seat in MA-03
Ten candidates are running in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat represented by retiring incumbent Rep. Niki Tsongas (D). This is the district’s first contested Democratic primary since 1994.
Three candidates have raised more than $1 million through the second quarter of 2018: Dan Koh, former chief of staff to Mayor Marty Walsh; former ambassador to Denmark Rufus Gifford (D); and Lori Trahan (D), former chief of staff to former Rep. Marty Meehan.
Koh, Gifford, and Trahan have emphasized their personal stories and professional experience more than policy differences to distinguish themselves.
Koh, named "the most powerful 30-year-old in Boston" in 2015, has highlighted his Korean-Lebanese heritage and experience in local politics.
Gifford was the finance director for President Barack Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, helping it to raise $1 billion.
Born in Lowell, Massachusetts, Trahan showcases her roots in the district with the slogan #BornRaisedStayed.
Progressive candidate challenges “Democratic machine” in MA-08
Incumbent Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) faces his first contested primary since 2010 against video game developer Brianna Wu (D) and Air Force veteran Christopher Voehl (D) in Massachusetts’ 8th Congressional District.
Lynch, who was first elected to the U.S. House in 2001, is running on his background as a structural ironworker and advocate to show he understands the concerns of working families.
Wu says she is running more against the state’s Democratic machine than Lynch. She said her experience in software engineering and cybersecurity will be unusual in Congress—where most members come from legal and business backgrounds—and enable her to solve problems.
Through the second quarter, Lynch had significantly more cash-on-hand than either challenger, reporting $1.3 million to Wu's $71,000 and Voehl's $57,000.
Legislative leaders and longtime incumbents challenged in primaries
Massachusetts has eight contested Democratic primaries for its 40 state Senate seats and 35 contested primaries for its 160 House seats. Ballotpedia has identified seven races to watch from among those primaries.
Intraparty conflicts have largely centered around challenges to legislators aligned with state House Speaker Robert DeLeo (D), who has been described by local political observers as “on the conservative side of the Democratic party in Massachusetts.” Among the legislators facing a challenger is state Rep. Byron Rushing (D), the fourth-ranking member of House leadership.
At least three of the races to watch involve incumbents who have been in office for 15 years or more. Their challengers say the incumbents no longer in touch with the district they represent, citing political and demographic shifts.
Two races to watch involve open seats, including the 16th Essex House District. Incumbent Juana Matias (D) is running for the U.S. House. Matias’ predecessor, Marcos Devers (D), faces his own predecessor, William Lantigua (D), in the primary. Devers and Lantigua ran against one another for the same seat in 2006 and 2008.
Delaware
Carper faces progressive challenge in Senate primary
Incumbent Sen. Tom Carper (D) faces a primary challenge from progressive Kerri Evelyn Harris in the Sept. 6 primary. Carper, who is seeking his fourth term, is campaigning on his record, highlighting his role in passing the Affordable Care Act and his support for renewable energy development. Harris, an Air Force veteran and community organizer, says Carper has not gone far enough on either issue. She supports Medicare for All and has criticized Carper’s support for the Keystone XL pipeline. During an Aug. 27 debate, Carper defended his record, saying, "I have actually fixed things." Harris said Congress needs "diversity in experience" as opposed to career politicians. Former Vice President Joe Biden (D), the Delaware Democratic Party, The Moderate Democrats PAC, and the Natural Resources Defense Council have endorsed Carper. Harris has the backing of several progressive groups, including Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, and the Working Families Party. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who defeated longtime incumbent Joseph Crowley in New York's 14th Congressional District primary, also supports Harris.
Special guest analysis: Kelly surging, Marchand hanging on in Dems’ gubernatorial primary as popular Sununu awaits winner
Dave Lemery is a contributor to Watchdog.org. We invited him to share analysis of New Hampshire's gubernatorial primary. Read more here.
There's not much separating New Hampshire Democratic governor candidates Molly Kelly and Steve Marchand on the issues.
Kelly, a former state senator, and Marchand, the former mayor of Portsmouth, both embrace longtime party priorities such as abortion rights, gay rights and reducing enforcement of federal immigration policies. They’ve each sought to create daylight between their respective stances by accusing the other of not embracing these positions strongly enough.
What does separate the two is momentum heading into the Sept. 11 primary.
An April 2018 poll from Saint Anselm College’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics – conducted around the time Kelly entered the race – showed Marchand with a small lead in favorability ratings and a somewhat larger edge in name recognition.
But a late August poll from the institute shows that as Kelly has ramped up her campaign, she appears to have erased Marchand’s lead, and then some, in the race to see who will get to challenge incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Sununu.
Candidate survey reply of the week
Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
What is your favorite thing in your home or apartment? Why?
"Depends on the season. When it isn't hellish outside, so maybe a couple months out of the year, I love having my morning coffee in the front porch on my big red rocking chair. For the rest of the year, I love my little sitting area with a bookshelf full of old leadership and law books, topped with a globe, some of my favorite rocks and shells, and an old map on the wall. I love maps."
- Melissa Martin, candidate for Florida’s 14th state Senate District
Read all of Melissa Martin's responses →
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
With Honor Fund
"Debilitating partisanship in Washington is near a record high, while veteran representation in Congress is near a historic low," according to the super PAC With Honor Fund's website. The fund says its mission is to "elect principled next-generation veterans to office who will work in a cross-partisan way to create a more effective and less polarized government."
With Honor Fund has endorsed 34 U.S. House candidates so far in 2018—19 Democrats and 15 Republicans. On the Democratic side, endorsees include retired Marine Corps Lt. Col. Amy McGrath in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District and retired Marine officer Maura Sullivan in New Hampshire's 1st.
McGrath won the May 22 primary. The fund spent more than $100,000 on her behalf. McGrath faces incumbent Rep. Andy Barr (R) in the general election.
Sullivan faces 10 other candidates in New Hampshire's Sept. 11 primary. Through August, With Honor Fund had spent $181,743 on digital ads, polling, and mailings supporting Sullivan.
Sullivan isn’t With Honor Fund's only endorsee in New Hampshire's 1st. The group also endorsed Navy veteran Eddie Edwards in the district's Republican primary. The group said it will re-evaluate its 1st District endorsements following the primaries, should both candidates win their primaries and face off in November.
Endorsees sign the With Honor Pledge, which has three pillars: putting the public interest over self-interest, bringing civility to politics, and working across the aisle in Congress. The third pillar includes a commitment to co-sponsor legislation with someone from another party once a year.
With Honor Fund has so far made $5.1 million in independent expenditures in the 2018 election cycle—$2.2 million in support of Democrats, $2.5 million favoring Republicans, and more than $400,000 opposing candidates.
What we're reading
- Polling got Andrew Gillum’s victory in Florida very wrong. 8 experts on how that happened. Vox
- When Having a Progressive Record Isn’t Enough The Atlantic
- Andrew Gillum’s Win, in Florida, Sets Up a Clear Battle Between the New G.O.P. and the New Democrats The New Yorker
- Poll: Trump disapproval rating up to 60 percent Politico
