Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 1 (January 15, 2018)
Welcome to the first edition of The Heart of the Primaries, Ballotpedia’s weekly update on the candidates, issues, and policies that will shape the 2018 Democratic primary season.
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Upcoming filing deadlines: West Virginia (Jan. 27), Kentucky (Jan. 30)
Passed filing deadlines: Illinois, Texas (2)
Upcoming elections: AZ-08 special election (Feb. 27)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,086 Democrats, 757 Republicans
Democratic Pundits on the News
Where are Democratic and progressive pundits in disagreement? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
Resistance to Trump may not be enough
“One year ago, as Donald Trump was preparing to take the oath of office, Democrats were in disarray. Supporters of 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders were pointing fingers at each other, the Democratic National Committee was in disgrace, and Democratic voters were demoralized.
Now, Trump has succeeded in doing something extraordinary, something neither Clinton nor House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi could do — he has united and energized Democrats.
Moreover, if national polls are accurate, the president has taken his own party to the edge of a political cliff, the 2018 midterm elections.
This has occurred in spite of a growing economy, a booming stock market, a shrinking unemployment rate and tax cuts intended to stimulate even more growth.”
- Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call, Jan. 10, 2018
“Maslin’s wise counsel suggests that Democrats need a two-pronged approach to riding the coming wave. First, they have to play up anti-Trump sentiment, which will help make many races competitive by energizing the Democratic base and appealing to disenchanted Trump voters (or at least convincing them to stay home). But Democrats also have to offer a positive agenda, especially to core voters such as people of color and women, and also provide the organizational resources to turn out those voters. Being reflexively anti-Trump will help Democrats win, but Trump won’t be on the ballot next year, and he won’t be around forever. For lasting success, the party will also have to out-hustle and outthink the Republicans.”
- Jeet Heer, New Republic, Dec. 14, 2017
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Republican seats heading into November: 239
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Open seats: 43
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 14
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 29
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
U.S. Senate:
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Democratic seats heading into November: 47
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
And then there were five in Illinois’ 4th
Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (D) left the race for Illinois' 4th Congressional District last Tuesday and endorsed Cook County Commissioner Jesus Garcia (D).
Ramirez-Rosa said, "My campaign, like a modern, effective campaign, conducted an internal benchmark poll. What that benchmark poll showed was that if there were a path forward it would require dividing and splitting the progressive movement. And we need a unified progressive movement if we’re going to take on Donald Trump."
Also backing Garcia: incumbent Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.), who is retiring, and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Nonprofit director Sol Flores has the support of EMILY’s List. An internal Garcia poll, showed Flores trailing Garcia 63 percent to 11 percent in a head-to-head race.
16-1: Lipinski gets first major endorsement in Illinois’ 3rd
After Marie Newman (D) received 16 endorsements—including NARAL Pro-Choice America and Human Rights Campaign—incumbent Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.) gets one of his own from the AFL-CIO.
Labor support has been critical to Lipinski in the past. A December poll showed Lipinski leading Newman 49 percent to 18 percent.
In Pennsylvania’s 18th, Lamb is “no” on Pelosi
Former federal prosecutor and Marine Corps veteran Conor Lamb (D) said he would not back Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) if elected. “I think we need new leadership on both sides. … I expect leaders to get results, and the result of our Congressional leadership has been to have people in the district dissatisfied with their performance,” he said.
Selected as the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania’s 18th special election at a convention, Lamb’s anti-Pelosi stance could set an example for other Democratic candidates running in Republican-leaning districts.
Clarke dynasty faces challenge in New York’s 9th
Community Board 8 member Adem Bunkeddeko (D) is raising big money in his effort to unseat six-term incumbent Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) in New York’s 9th Congressional District. Clarke and her mother have represented the Brooklyn district on the City Council or in Congress since 1991.
Bunkeddeko reported raising $120,000 in the final quarter of 2017. “We’ve got more money than she has in cash-on-hand,” Bunkeddeko said. “We’ve raised more than she’s ever raised in a year-end quarter. So again the appetite, the hunger for change is there.”
Manning to challenge Cardin for U.S. Senate seat
Former U.S. Army intelligence officer Chelsea Manning announced on Saturday that she would challenge two-term U.S. Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) in the June 26 Maryland primary. Manning, who was known as Bradley Manning before her transition, was arrested in 2010 following a leak of classified intelligence and was sentenced to 35 years in prison. Her sentence was commuted by President Obama in 2016.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 3 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 14 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Cordray's candidacy gets boost as two rivals drop out
Former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director and Ohio gubernatorial candidate Richard Cordray's (D) campaign got a boost this week as two rivals announced that they were withdrawing and throwing their support behind his campaign. On Wednesday, former U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton (D) announced that she was dropping out of the gubernatorial primary and joining Cordray's campaign as his running mate. On Friday, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D) announced that she too would drop out and endorsed the Cordray-Sutton ticket.
Candidates have until Feb. 7 to file the May 8 primary.
Former U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) announced he will kick off his campaign Jan. 17. In an interview with The Columbus Dispatch, Cedarville University professor Mark Caleb Smith argued that Kucinich "has significant experience and is a well-known figure in Ohio politics. He could be a credible challenger to Richard Cordray for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination." Ohio Democrats party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 4/16
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 9/33
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 33/99
Illinois’ largest teachers union endorses Pritzker
The 135,000 member Illinois Education Association endorsed gubernatorial candidate J.B. Pritzker (D) On Thursday, Personal PAC, which advocates for legal access to abortion, gave its endorsement to Pritzker, who is one of seven candidates seeking the Democratic nomination in the March 20 primary. Illinois Democrats party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 11/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 4/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 37/59
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 67/118
Madison Mayor Paul Soglin running for Wisconsin governor
Madison Mayor Paul Soglin announced Wednesday he would seek the Democratic nomination for governor in the Aug. 14 primary. Soglin is one of 15 candidates in the race. Soglin has served as Madison Mayor since 2011 and previously held the job from 1989-1997 and 1973-1979. Additional candidates have until June 1 to file. Wisconsin Democrats party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 3/8
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 1/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 13/33
- Seats held in state Assembly: 35/99
Connecticut gubernatorial candidate drops out as two others enter race
Former Connecticut Commissioner of Veterans’ Affairs Sean Connolly (D) and businessman Guy Smith (D) jumped into the Democratic primary for governor of Connecticut Tuesday. On Friday, Middletown Mayor Dan Drew (D) announced that he would withdraw from the primary, citing lack of funds.
The filing deadline for this race is June 12. The Connecticut Democratic Party’s annual convention, during which delegates will vote on which gubernatorial candidate to endorse, will be held May 18-19. To appear on the primary ballot, candidates must either receive at least 15 percent of the vote in the nominating convention or obtain signatures from at least 2 percent of registered Democratic voters in the state. Should only one candidate qualify, the nomination will go to that candidate by default. Connecticut Democrats party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 5/5
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 6/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 18/36
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 78/151
Setti Warren earns Shumlin endorsement
Former Gov. Peter Shumlin (D-VT) endorsed Newton Mayor Setti Warren (D) in the Massachusetts Democratic primary. Shumlin praised Warren's support for a single-payer health care system and his approach to the opioid crisis. "Setti understands that the way to fight the opioid epidemic is by focusing on treating addiction like a disease,” Shumlin said, “not by stigmatizing it as a moral failing."
Warren is one of three Democrats who have so far announced a run for governor. The filing deadline for the Sept. 4 primary election is June 5.
The 2018 Massachusetts primaries were moved from Sept. 18 to Sept. 4 due to a conflict with the Jewish holiday Yom Kippur. The elections could not be rescheduled on Sept. 11 because of a conflict with the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah, or Sept. 25 because of a federal law requiring general election absentee ballots to be available for military voters at least 45 days in advance of the election date. Massachusetts Democrats party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 8/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 9/9
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 4/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 32/40
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 124/160
Texas candidate disqualified
Businesswoman Demetria Smith (D) was disqualified from the Texas gubernatorial primary this week after her check covering filing fees bounced. In Texas, gubernatorial candidates must submit a filing fee of $3,750 or collect 5,000 valid signatures in order to appear on the primary ballot. Smith was one of 10 candidates who had filed ahead of the Dec. 11 deadline. Texas Democrats party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 0/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 2/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 11/36
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 11/31
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 56/150
State legislatures
We know that federal elections draw national scrutiny and attention. But what about down-ballot in state legislatures? What kinds of trends and patterns are emerging in the race for control of the state capitals? This chart tracks the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, the number of incumbents defeated, and total Republican primaries in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed
| State legislative Democratic primaries, 2018 vs. 2016 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2016 | |
| Candidates running | 409 | 29287 |
| Incumbent primary challenges | 34 | 22 |
| Incumbent primary defeats | N/A | N/A |
| Total Republican primaries | 80 | 40 |
Takeaway: In the two states (Illinois and Texas) where candidate lists are now written in stone, there has been a 42.5 percent increase in the number of Democratic candidates running, a 54.5 percent increase in the number of Democratic incumbents facing primary challenges, and a 100 percent increase in the total number of Democratic state legislative primaries.
Leader of renegade Democrats in New York Senate facing sexual misconduct allegations
More drama in the New York Senate, as Erica Vladimer a former staffer of Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) leader Jeff Klein(D), accused him of forcibly kissing her in 2015. In a Jan. 10 Huffington Post interview, Vladimer said that the alleged incident happened while she and Klein were at a bar with state Sen. Diane Savino (D), another IDC member who was dating Klein at the time. Klein and Savino denied the allegations.
The allegations could affect both the power structure of the New York State Senate and the Democratic primaries. Klein formed the IDC in 2011, breaking away from mainline Democrats and eventually aligning with Republicans. This allowed Klein to serve as a co-president of the state Senate alongside state Sen. Dean Skelos (R). Although Democrats held a 32-31 majority after the 2016 elections, the IDC and Democrat Simcha Felder both aligned with Republicans again, giving the GOP effective control of the chamber.
In late 2017, the New York Democratic Party and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) both said they would run primary challenges against Klein and IDC members if they did not rejoin the mainline Democrats. In November, Klein and mainline Democratic leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins announced that they would work together in 2018 (they would still be out of the majority because Felder said he would stick the GOP).
Despite the reconciliation, Democratic primary challengers to Klein and the IDC have continued to announce. With the misconduct allegations, Klein might find himself under even more pressure. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) and Stewart-Cousins called for an investigation of Klein (he says he will cooperate) while Flanagan said that the Senate does not have the ability to investigate the allegations.
Speaking of sexual misconduct allegations...welcome to Illinois
State Sen. Ira Silverstein (D) has been in office since 1998, but this election cycle has not been kind to him. In November 2017, a lobbyist accused Silverstein of sexual misconduct. The lobbyists alleged the harassment was related to legislation she was advocating for. Silverstein denied the claims, but did step down as Senate majority caucus chairman.
After the misconduct allegations came a tough primary challenge. Former union official Ram Villivalam received endorsements from U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) and state Sen. Laura Murphy (D), as well as the Service Employees International Union and Equality Illinois.
And then came the signatures. Silverstein submitted 1,999 signatures to appear on the Democratic primary ballot when only 1,000 were required. However, his opponents challenged many of those signatures. Silverstein will appear before the Chicago Board of Elections Commission this week to see whether he will make the 2018 primary ballot.
His Chicago-based district strongly favors Democrats, so even if Silverstein is kicked off the primary ballot, then either Villivalam or one of the three other candidates should win the general election. The primary is March 20.
Silverstein is one of 49 state and federal officials who have faced sexual misconduct allegations since the Harvey Weinstein reports broke in October 2017.
The race to succeed Delaware’s only African-American state senator underway
A wave of local officials have announced plans to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Margaret Rose Henry (D), the only African-American member of Delaware’s Senate. The candidates running include former Wilmington police Chief Bobby Cummings, City Councilman Samuel L. Guy, and former Councilman Darius Brown. Henry held the seat for 20 years and succeeded Herman Holloway, the first ever African-American member of the Delaware Senate. Henry was the first, and so far only, African-American woman to serve in the chamber.
The primary is Sept. 11.
Former Cleveland councilman planning a primary challenge of Ohio state Sen. Sandra Williams (D)
Ohio State Sen. Sandra Williams (D) looks like she will face a primary challenge from former Cleveland Councilman Jeff Johnson during the state’s May 8 primary. Williams was elected in 2014 and is eligible to serve one more four-year term in the Ohio Senate before being term-limited.
Williams said U.S. Rep. Marcia Fudge (D) encouraged Johnson to run, because Williams ran for chairwoman of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party against County Councilwoman Shontel Brown, a Fudge ally. Johnson said that Fudge had endorsed his campaign but did not say whether his decision to run was connected to the Cuyahoga County race.
Johnson unsuccessfully ran to be the mayor of Cleveland in 2017, resigning his position on the Cleveland City Council to do so. He is a former state senator and, in 1998, was convicted of extorting campaign contributions.
Power Players
A weekly feature on influencers shaping the direction of the party.
Tom Steyer
"Donald Trump has already passed the threshold for impeachment. You know it, we know it, and so do members of Congress. Up to this point, the people we elected to represent us in Washington D.C. have offered countless excuses for not backing impeachment. There is no time left for continued ambivalence." -Tom Steyer, San Francisco billionaire, Democratic donor and climate change activist
Tom Steyer launched a multimillion dollar impeachment campaign against President Donald Trump (R) in October. In December, Steyer issued a new call for Congress to remove Trump from office. "If Republican and Democratic leaders will not rise to the occasion and hold the president accountable," he said, "the people will rise up to replace them with representatives who will.” Steyer was thought to be interested in becoming one of those replacement representatives himself. He scheduled a news conference last Monday for an announcement about his political future, further fueling ongoing speculation that he might run for governor of California or challenge U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) this year.
That speculation turned out to be off the mark - for this year at least. “I’m not going to run for office in 2018,” he said. “That’s not where I can make the biggest difference.” Instead, Steyer will invest at least $30 million in NextGen Rising, a millennial voter turnout initiative of his advocacy group NextGen America.
Bertha Lewis
"Bertha Lewis is a progressive lioness touting the achievements of the IDC and setting the record straight on who we are and what we do." -Candice Giove, spokeswoman for the New York State Senate's Independent Democratic Conference
Bertha Lewis, former CEO of ACORN and founder of The Black Institute and its fundraising arm the Black Leadership Action Coalition, has endorsed the New York State Senate's Independent Democratic Conference (IDC).
The IDC, a group of Democratic Senators that formed in 2011 and entered into a power-sharing agreement with Senate Republicans, faces a primary threat from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) this year. "We hope that these rogue members return to the mainline," DLCC executive director Jessica Post said, "but until they do, all options are on the table for returning this chamber to its rightful Democratic majority."
Lewis has recorded robocalls for the IDC as a whole and for individual members Jesse Hamilton, Jose Peralta, Tony Avella, and Marisol Alcantara. The Black Institute supported a bill to raise the age of criminal consent that Lewis credits the IDC with helping pass in 2017. "The vast majority of youth arrests are for minor crimes (74 percent are misdemeanors) including not paying subway fare. Nearly 20,000 16 and 17-year olds are arrested for turnstile jumping every year. A child should not go to Rikers Island for jumping a turnstile," she said in April. "I applaud Senator Hamilton, the State Legislature and his IDC colleagues for having compassion for our children.”
By coincidence, Lewis also recently backed another Democratic candidate with a history of Republican power-sharing. Her Black Leadership Action Coalition endorsed former state Sen. Hiram Monserrate (D) in his unsuccessful 2017 bid for the 21st District seat on the New York city council. Monserrate was one of the "Four Amigos," a group of four Democratic senators who formed a majority coalition with Senate Republicans in 2009.
