Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Special Edition 10 (August 15, 2018)
In this special post-primary edition: Johnson tops Pawlenty for MN-Gov, Vukmir will take on Baldwin for WI-Sen, and one week later, Kobach is KS-Gov nominee.
Here are the results of the Aug. 14 primaries so far.
Connecticut
Stefanowski wins gubernatorial nomination
Businessman Bob Stefanowski (R) won the Republican gubernatorial nomination, defeating party-endorsed Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton 29.4 percent to 21.3 percent.
Stefanowski ran on his business experience and outsider politics, points he said made him uniquely positioned to manage the state. He touted an economic recovery plan that included adopting zero-based budgeting and privatizing the Department of Motor Vehicles. Former Reagan economic adviser Arthur Laffer endorsed Stefanowski’s plan.
Boughton won the state party endorsement at its annual convention. He said he had turned Danbury around and promised to do the same for the state. Boughton advocated abolishing the state income tax.
Third place finisher David Stemerman (R) also highlighted his business background and outsider status. He called for Connecticut to adopt successful policies from other states, pointing to Washington's use of priority-based budgeting and Massachusetts' education policies as examples.
Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst (R), who finished fourth, ran on his record and called for the elimination of the state income tax for households making less than $75,000 annually.
Businessman Steve Obsitnik (R) also campaigned on his business background. He promised to create 300,000 jobs new jobs in eight years and backed a $100 billion infrastructure proposal.
Stefanowski faces Democratic nominee Ned Lamont in the November general election.
Santos defeats O’Neill, DuPont in CT-05
Former Meridian Mayor Manny Santos (R) defeated Rich DuPont (R) and Ruby Corby O’Neill (R) for the Republican nomination in Connecticut's 5th Congressional District.
The seat became open when incumbent Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D) announced she would not seek re-election after receiving criticism for how she addressed harassment allegations against her chief of staff.
The state party-backed Santos, who won more than half of the vote, and O’Neill said they were immigrants who support the president’s immigration policy. Santos immigrated as a child from Portugal. In a tweet responding to criticism of the president over children separated from their parents at the border, Santos wrote, "It’s called consequence of enforcing our immigration laws; separated while they are processed. Pass the solution."
O’Neill, a retired psychology professor and Honduran immigrant, was the runner-up with 26.7 percent of the vote. O'Neill highlighted the opioid crisis and her personal experience with her ex-husband's addiction as a key issue.
DuPont, a retired manufacturing consultant, also defended the president’s immigration policy but tried to keep the focus on incentivizing manufacturing job growth.
Republicans believe they might be able to flip the district, which voted for Hillary Clinton (D) over Donald Trump (R) by a margin of 50 to 46 percent in 2016.
Minnesota
Johnson defeats Pawlenty for gubernatorial nomination
Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R) won the Republican gubernatorial nomination, defeating former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) 52.6 percent to 43.9 percent.
Johnson was the Republican nominee in 2014, losing to incumbent Mark Dayton (D) by five percentage points. Johnson won the state party endorsement after Pawlenty declined to contest the annual convention.
Johnson called for reducing the scope of state government, stating his support for term limits, lower taxes, and a complete audit of state spending.
Pawlenty, who served two terms as governor, ran on his experience and his a five-plank platform, which emphasized job growth, efficiency in state government, and a response to the opioid crisis. Pawlenty had a seven-to-one fundraising advantage over Johnson and was endorsed by three former chairmen of the state GOP.
According to unofficial figures provided by the state, nearly 875,000 voters participated in the state’s primaries—the highest turnout in a non-presidential primary in Minnesota since 1994.
Johnson faces Democratic nominee Rep. Tim Walz in the November general election.
Hagedorn wins party nomination again in MN-01
In his fourth attempt for the seat, 2016 nominee Jim Hagedorn (R) defeated state Sen. Carla Nelson (R) in the Republican primary for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Hagedorn received 60 percent of the vote to Nelson’s 32 percent.
Hagedorn lost to incumbent Rep. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) by less than one percentage point in 2016. He earned the district party’s endorsement at its April convention. Hagedorn compared himself to Reps. John Kline (R-Minn.) and Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), who each ran three or more times before being elected.
Nelson has served in the state Senate since 2011 and was endorsed by Susan B. Anthony List and the National Rifle Association. She was reportedly encouraged to run for the seat by national party leaders. Her campaign focused on health care, the federal budget, and education policy.
Both candidates were named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Contenders” program.
Although the district went for Trump in the 2016 presidential election by 15 percentages points, the Democratic incumbent held on to his seat by less than a percentage point. Daily Kos identified this district as the most vulnerable Democratic House seat.
Wisconsin
Vukmir defeats Nicholson in expensive Republican Senate primary
State Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) defeated Marine Corps veteran Kevin Nicholson (R) in an expensive Republican Senate primary that centered on party loyalty. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Vukmir had 49 percent of the vote to Nicholson's 43 percent.
Vukmir campaigned as a consistent conservative and had endorsements from House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), more than 50 state legislators and officials, and the state party.
Nicholson focused on his military service and outsider status. Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, and the Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund backed Nicholson.
Both candidates had seven-figure support from satellite groups: Richard Uihlein contributed $2 million to Solutions for Wisconsin in 2017 to encourage Nicholson to run. Another group funded primarily by Uihlein, Restoration PAC, spent $4 million on the race through July. The pro-Vukmir Wisconsin Next PAC, funded mainly by Diane Hendricks, spent $2.5 million on the primary.
In total, satellite groups spent more than $12 million on the race.
Kansas
Gov. Colyer concedes to Kobach
Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) conceded the Republican gubernatorial primary to Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) Tuesday.
Colyer and Kobach were among seven candidates seeking the GOP nomination in the Aug. 7 primary, which was too close to call on election night. Kobach's initial lead over Colyer was widened as mail-in and provisional ballots were added to the official count.
Special guest analysis: Minnesota primary results, 2018
Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.
The tumultuous Minnesota 2018 primaries, marked at the end by last-minute candidate filings and, in two major races, by controversial allegations, produced only one major upset.
The upset came in the Republican primary for governor where GOP-endorsed candidate Jeff Johnson defeated the better-known former Governor Tim Pawlenty who polls had shown was ahead. Johnson ran an energetic campaign with much less money than Pawlenty had, and asserted he was the only true supporter of President Trump in the race, citing an earlier criticism of candidate Trump in 2016. Trump endorsed neither candidate, but his support remains strong in many areas outside Minneapolis and St. Paul.
Retiring Democratic (DFL) Rep. Tim Walz won his party’s nomination for governor, defeating DFL-endorsed state Rep. Erin Murphy and retiring state Attorney General Lori Swanson, who had entered the race at the last moment, and had led in polls. A late controversy involving Swanson perhaps affected the race.
Another controversy, involving state attorney general candidate, retiring Rep. Keith Ellison, received sensational national and local headlines, but appeared not to affect his race, which he won by a large margin. The controversy might, however, present post-primary problems for the nominee.
There were two competitive congressional primaries—in MN-1, GOP-endorsed Jim Hagedorn easily defeated challenger State Senator Carla Nelson—and in MN-8, Joe Radinovich won the DFL nod against four other DFLers.
Many of these and other races in Minnesota will be competitive and hard fought in November.
Both parties had reasons to cheer and be concerned. All Republican endorsed candidates won in their primaries, and Johnson might prove to be their strongest candidate at the top of the ticket in November. But GOP turnout trailed DFL turnout notably in the primary. DFLers probably nominated their strongest candidate for governor, and were heartened by DFL voter participation in the primary, but their nomination of some candidates espousing the views of the Bernie Sanders wing of the national party might pose difficulties in their appeal to outstate conservative and independent Minnesota voters in November.
Election preview
Up next: Alaska and Wyoming primaries Aug. 21, followed by Arizona, Florida, and Oklahoma Aug. 28. Top stories to watch include…
- Six candidates run in what could be the most expensive Republican gubernatorial primary in Wyoming history.
- Arpaio, McSally, and Ward compete for nomination in Arizona's toss-up U.S. Senate seat.
- DeSantis and Putnam highlight Trump support, Florida roots in the state's gubernatorial primary.
