Oklahoma gubernatorial election, 2010

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In the Oklahoma gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, Republican Mary Fallin defeated Democrat Jari Askins . The incumbent, Democratic Governor Brad Henry was term-limited. Fallin's election makes her the first woman to serve as Oklahoma's governor.

In the July 27, 2010 primary elections, Jari Askins, who served as Governor Henry's Lieutenant Governor, narrowly defeated Oklahoma's Attorney General, Drew Edmondson. Mary Fallins had a more comfortable victory over her major opponent, State Senator Randy Brogdon.

November 2, 2010 general election results

All precincts have reported and results are certified.

2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial general election
Party		Candidate	Vote Percentage
	Democratic Party	Jari Askins	39.55%
	Republican Party	a Mary Fallin	60.45%
Total Votes			1,034,767

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

Governor-elect Mary Fallin took office as Oklahoma's 27th chief executive on January 10, 2011.

Transition team

The Fallin transition was online at Transition Central.

The transition's physical office was at:

Office of Governor-elect Mary Fallin
Oklahoma State Capitol
2300 N. Lincoln Blvd. Suite 104
Oklahoma City, OK 73105
phone: (405) 521-4317
fax: (405) 521-4285

In a November 8, 2010 press conference, Governor-elect Fallin named Devon Energy executive Larry Nichols and outgoing Senate President Glenn Coffee as co-chairs of her transition. Nichols will spearhead getting the private sector involved in the transition and in the Fallin administration, a stated goal of the incoming Governor. Coffee, meanwhile, was in charge of liaison work with Oklahoma's legislature.

Sen. Coffee left office due to term limits but his being named to the transition raised eyebrows, largely due to his own troubles while in office. While serving as Senate President Pro Tempore, Coffee failed to pay nearly $30,000 in federal taxes in 2009 and was called out for lavish spending and pay raises for staff.

Appointments in the Fallin Administration

The picture of what the Fallin Administration would look like shaped up quickly. According the Governor-elect's transition site, the following people were set to join her office:

• Chief of Staff -- Denise Northrup

• Policy Director -- Katie Altshuler

• Chief Counsel -- Judy Copeland

• Communications Director -- Alex Weintz

• Special Advisor to the Governor on Economic Development -- Robert Sullivan, Jr.

• Members of the Governor's Taskforce on Economic Development (partial list)

• David Rainbolt, Chairman of the Oklahoma State Chamber and BancFirst CEO

• Former State Representative Gary Sherrer, Board of Director for Rural Enterprises, Inc.

• Small Business Advocate -- Lieutenant Governor-elect Todd Lamb

• Secretary of Agriculture -- Jim Reese, former State Executive Director for the Oklahoma Farm Service Agency

• Secretary of Veterans Affairs -- retired Major General Rita Aragon

In addition to the announced appointments, Secretary of Human Resources and Administration Oscar Jackson was retained in his current office.

July 27, 2010 primary

As expected, Mary Fallin became the Republican nominee. However, Jari Askins engineered an upset to win a narrow victory over Drew Edmondson. The results mean that, whoever wins in November, Oklahoma would have its first-ever female governor. Polling at the moment indicates the race is Fallin's to lose.

2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary
Candidates		Percentage
Jari Askins (D)		50.28%
Drew Edmondson (D)		49.72%
Total votes		263, 649

2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary
Candidates		Percentage
Randy Brogdon (R)		39.42%
Mary Fallin (R)		54.79%
Robert Hubbard(R)		3.26%
Roger L. Jackson (R)		2.53%
Total votes		249,031

Race ratings

See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking

2010 Race Rankings Oklahoma
Race Tracker		Race Rating
The Cook Political Report		Lean Republican
Congressional Quarterly Politics		Leans Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball		Likely Republican
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard		Solid GOP
The Rothenberg Political Report		Currently Safe Republican
Overall Call		Republican

Polling

Successive polls taken after the primary show Republican Mary Fallins with a commanding 15% lead. And she is above the 50% threshold - for now. Her support as fallen slightly as Democrat Janet Askins picks up a few points. However, the race is still favoring the GOP.

Comparing post-primary numbers to available surveys taken early in the year show that even when a Fallins v. Askins race was only a hypothetical, Fallins held a strikingly similar lead.

General election polling

2010 Race for Oklahoma Governor - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported		Fallin	Askins	Other	Don't Know
September 23, 2010		60%	34%	1%	5%
August 26, 2010		52%	37%	4%	7%
July 28, 2010		57%	36%	2%	3%
June 30, 2010		55%	32%	7%	7%
February 24, 2010		51%	37%	6%	6%

Primary election polling

2010 Race for Oklahoma Governor - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported		Fallin	Askins	Other	Don't Know
July 7, 2010		55%	32%	7%	7%
March 3, 2010		51%	37%	6%	6%
Date Reported		Brogden	Askins	Other	Don't Know
July 7, 2010		47%	38%	6%	9%
March 3, 2010		39%	42%	8%	11%
Date Reported		Hubbard	Askins	Other	Don't Know
July 7, 2010		43%	38%	8%	11%
Date Reported		Jackson	Askins	Other	Don't Know
July 7, 2010		42%	40%	8%	11%
Date Reported		Fallin	Edmondson	Other	Don't Know
July 7, 2010		48%	39%	3%	10%
March 3, 2010		51%	36%	5%	8%
Date Reported		Brogdon	Edmondson	Other	Don't Know
July 7, 2010		35%	46%	5%	14%
March 3, 2010		42%	41%	5%	12%
Date Reported		Hubbard	Edmondson	Other	Don't Know
July 7, 2010		31%	44%	8%	18%
Date Reported		Jackson	Edmondson	Other	Don't Know
July 7, 2010		29%	45%	8%	18%
(Sample)		n=500	MoE=+/- 4.5%	p=0.05

2010 Race for Oklahoma Governor - Public Policy Polling
Date Reported		Fallin	Askins	Other	Don't Know
May 20, 2009		50%	34%	-%	16%
Date Reported		Fallin	Edmondson	Other	Don't Know
May 20, 2009		48%	38%	-%	14%

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who Made It? Oklahoma Governor
Nominee		Affiliation
Jari Askins		Democrat
Mary Fallin		Republican
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who were officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

Oklahoma's Secretary of State maintains a list of certified candidates.

Democratic

• Attorney Jari Askins, the current Lt. Governor, became the first announced announced candidate in January of 2009.
• Navy veteran and four term Attorney General Drew Edmondson

Republican

• Randy Brogdon, a state Senator and advocate of states' rights
• Mary Fallin, Congresswoman representing Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District, former state representative, and former Oklahoma Lt. Governor
• Businessman and rancher Robert Hubbard
• Salesman Roger L. Jackson

Race background

The Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010 and Cook Political Report ranked the race as "Leans Republican" as of June 2010.

As of early July, Mary Fallin had emerged as the strongest GOP candidate while Drew Edmondson led among Democratic contenders. In a hypothetical match-up of the two, Fallin beat Edmondson 48% to 39%. Earlier in the year, Fallin held an even larger lead, polling at 51% to Edmondson's 36%.

Final polls heading into the July primary indicated that a November matchup between Republican Mary Fallin and Democrat Drew Edmondson was still the most likely scenario. As of July 25, 2010, each had a very comfortable lead over their closest intra-party rivals. Congresswoman Fallin led Randy Brogdon by 38 points. Attorney General Edmondson had grown his lead to 49% among likely voters, giving him a double digit edge over Lt. Governor Jari Askins' 33%. For the Democratic primary, that was a continuation of a primary season long trend since January, when Askins and Edmondson were only 10 points apart.

On the GOP ticket, Fallin's lead had actually fallen 12 points overall January from July. However, this didn't helped Brogdon's beleaguered campaign. He only picked up two points, finishing with 18%. Voters who reported being undecided among Republican candidates grew 6 points, meaning one in five, or 22%, were unsure of their vote with one day left before the primary.

That mirrored findings in a Sooner Survey, which found Fallin leading in the Republican primary 50% to Brogdon's 22%. Robert Hubbard and Roger L. Jackson, the other candidates in the GOP field, both took 1%. Projecting this forward, a Fallin victory with over 60% of the primary vote was not out of the question. She led Brogon 56% to 23% on Oklahoma city, reflecting an impressive saturation in urban areas; she also bet him 53% - 18% in the state's expansive rural areas.

The same survey found Edmondson up 11 points over Askins, certainly a more fluid race than the Republicans, but enough of a margin that Edmondson was expected to win comfortably.

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results
Candidates		Percentage
Frank Keating (R)		57.86%
Laura Boyd (D)		40.93%
Hoppy Heidelberg (REF)		1.21%
Total votes		873,585

2002 Gubernatorial Results
Candidates		Percentage
Brad Henry (D)		43.28%
Steve Largent (R)		42.61%
Gary Richardson (I)		14.12%
Total votes		1,035,620

2006 Gubernatorial Results
Candidates		Percentage
Brad Henry (D)		66.50%
Ernest Istook (R)		33.50%
Total votes		926,462

Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates		Percentage
George W. Bush (R)		60.31%
Al Gore (D)		38.48%

2004 Presidential Results
Candidates		Percentage
George W. Bush (R)		65.57%
John Kerry (D)		34.43%

2008 Presidential Results
Candidates		Percentage
John McCain (R)		65.65%
Barack Obama (D)		34.35%

1992 Presidential Results
Candidates		Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R)		42.65%
Bill Clinton (D)		34.02%

1996 Presidential Results
Candidates		Percentage
Bob Dole (R)		48.26%
Bill Clinton (D)		40.45%

External links

• Oklahoma State Elections Board
• Rasmussen Reports Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor
• FiveThirtyEight Oklahoma
• Real Clear Politics Oklahoma Governor - Fallin vs. Edmondson
• Pollster Oklahoma 2010 Governor Race (dead link)
• CQ Politics Oklahoma Governor's Race

Candidate pages

• Jari Askins for Governor
• Randy Brogdon for Governor
• Drew Edmondson for Governor
• Mary Fallin Governor
• Robert Hubbard for Oklahoma Governor
• Roger L. Jackson for Oklahoma Governor

See also

• Gubernatorial elections, 2010
• Oklahoma lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2010