Rejected absentee/mail-in ballots in the 2016 and 2018 elections
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Between the 2016 and 2018 general elections, the percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots increased from 1.0% of all absentee/mail-in ballots returned in 2016 to 1.4% in 2018. Numerically, rejected absentee/mail-in ballots made up roughly 320,000 of the 33 million absentee/mail-in ballots submitted in the 2016 general election and 420,000 of the 30 million submitted in 2018. In terms of total turnout, rejected absentee/mail-in ballots represented 0.2% of the 140 million votes cast in 2016 and 0.4% of the 120 million cast in 2018.
This page provides a comparison of the percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots by mail in the 2016 and 2018 elections by state. For thirty-five states, the percentage increased in 2018 compared to 2016 and for nine, the percentage decreased. Five states had no change and one—Vermont—had incomplete data and was excluded.
All turnout data on this page was gathered from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission's (EAC) "Election Administration and Voting Survey" reports to Congress unless otherwise noted. The percentage of counted absentee/mail-in ballots was calculated by Ballotpedia by dividing the number of absentee/mail-in ballots counted by the total election turnout.
On this page you will find:
- An explanation of absentee/mail-in voting and reasons for absentee/mail-in ballot rejection.
- A comparison of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots in the 2016 and 2018 general elections by state
- A brief comparison of counted absentee/mail-in ballots in the 2016 and 2018 general elections
- A brief analysis of uncalled races on election night following the 2018 general election
Absentee/mail-in voting
- See also: Absentee/mail-in voting
Absentee, mail-in or by-mail voting is voting that did not happen in person on Election Day but instead occurred another way (generally by mail).[1] All states allow for some form of absentee/mail-in balloting. Some states require voters to provide a valid excuse to vote absentee/by mail, while others allow any eligible voter to cast an absentee/mail-in ballot.[2] Absentee/mail-in voting procedures can be divided into two categories: automatic absentee/mail-in ballot systems and request-required absentee/mail-in ballot systems. Automatic absentee/mail-in ballot systems mandate that all eligible voters receive either a ballot or ballot application by default. These are sometimes referred to as all-mail voting systems. Request-required absentee/mail-in ballot systems require that eligible voters initiate the process for receiving and casting absentee/mail-in ballots. These have traditionally been described as absentee voting systems.
In 2016 and 2018:
- Three states used an automatic absentee/mail-in ballot system.
- Sixteen states required voters to provide an approved reason in order to receive an absentee/mail-in ballot.
- Thirty states allowed voters to request an absentee/mail-in ballot without providing a reason.
- One state allowed voters to request an absentee/mail-in ballot without an excuse in 2016 and switched to an automatic absentee/mail-in ballot system in 2018.
(hover over bolded text to view states)
Reasons for rejection
Absentee/mail-in ballots can be rejected for a number of reasons ranging from a missed deadline to the use of an incorrect return envelope. The exact criteria for an absentee/mail-in ballot's rejection is determined on a state-by-state basis.
In its 2016 and 2018 reports, the EAC provided the following statistics identifying the most common reasons for ballot rejection. In 2016, the most commonly cited reason why an absentee/mail-in ballot was rejected was that the signature on the ballot did not match the signature on file with the election official, accounting for 27.5% of all rejections. In 2018, the most commonly cited reason was categorized as other, accounting for 34.9% of rejections that year.
Data in the table below comes from the EAC reports. It was only collected from states that report reasons for rejection and percentages may not equal exactly 100%. This does not include absentee/mail-in ballots that were never received by election officials.[3]
| Top reasons for rejecting absentee ballots, 2016 v. 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reason | 2016 | 2018 | ||||
| Ballot not received on time/missed deadline | 23.1% | 26.9% | ||||
| First-time voter without proper identification | 1.1% | N/A[4] | ||||
| Non-matching signature | 27.5% | 15.8% | ||||
| No voter signature | 20.0% | 13.0% | ||||
| No witness signature | 3.0% | 2.5% | ||||
| Problems with return materials (e.g., ballot missing from envelope) | 1.9% | N/A[4] | ||||
| Voter already voted in-person | 1.3% | 1.4% | ||||
| Voter deceased | 1.5% | N/A[4] | ||||
| Other reason given[5] | 14.8% | 34.9% | ||||
| All additional reasons/uncategorized | 5.7% | 2.2% | ||||
Comparison of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots between 2016 and 2018 general elections
For thirty-five states, the percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots increased in 2018 compared to 2016 and for nine, the percentage decreased. Five states had no change and one—Vermont—had incomplete data and was excluded from this comparison. Nationwide, the share of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots increased from 1.0% of all absentee/mail-in ballots returned in 2016 to 1.4% in 2018.
The percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots was less than 1% in 23 states in 2016 and greater than or equal to 1% in 26. In 2018, the percentage was less than 1% in 15 states and greater than or equal to 1% in 35.
The map below shows rejected absentee/mail-in votes as a share of returned absentee/mail-in ballots by state in 2018. A darker shade indicates a larger share of rejected ballots.
|
The five states with the largest increases in the percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots were:
|
The five states with the largest decreases in the percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots were:
|
The table below shows the number of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots in the 2016 and 2018 general elections by state. Two percentages are listed: the first is that of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots as a percentage of all absentee/mail-in ballots returned with the number of returned absentee/mail-in ballots included in parentheses. The second is the rejection rate of absentee/mail-in ballots as a percentage of total turnout with the turnout included in parentheses. The rightmost column shows the difference between the 2016 and 2018 percentages of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots. All data in this section was gathered from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission's "Election Administration and Voting Survey" reports to Congress unless otherwise noted. Cells shaded in gray indicate a data anomaly identified by Ballotpedia.
| Comparison of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots between the 2016 and 2018 general elections | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | 2016 | 2018 | Change (% returned) | ||||
| Total rejected | % returned (Total returned) |
% of total turnout (Total turnout) |
Total rejected | % of returned (Total returned) |
% of total turnout (Total turnout) | ||
| Alabama | 0 | 0.0% (88,601) |
0.0% (2,137,452) |
1,368 | 2.4% (57,832) |
0.1% (1,723,694) |
+2.4 |
| Alaska | 876 | 3.2% (27,626) |
0.3% (323,288) |
758 | 3.1% (24,425) |
0.3% (287,485) |
-0.1 |
| Arizona | 10,769 | 0.5% (2,017,722) |
0.4% (2,722,660) |
8,567 | 0.5% (1,899,240) |
0.4% (2,409,906) |
0.0 |
| Arkansas | 1,614 | 5.9% (27,525) |
0.2% (1,048,513) |
1,150 | 7.6% (15,208) |
0.1% (790,656) |
+1.7 |
| California | 58,309 | 0.7% (8,511,992) |
0.4% (14,610,494) |
161,660 | 2.0% (8,286,228) |
1.2% (13,828,680) |
+1.3 |
| Colorado | 23,249 | 0.9% (2,654,993) |
0.8% (2,884,199) |
19,170 | 0.8% (2,449,409) |
0.7% (2,586,432) |
-0.1 |
| Connecticut | 2,532 | 1.9% (132,012) |
0.2% (1,675,955) |
1,725 | 1.9% (91,602) |
0.1% (1,421,650) |
0.0 |
| Delaware | 216 | 1.5% (14,025) |
0.0% (44,8217) |
706 | 5.0% (14,142) |
0.2% (366,550) |
+3.5 |
| Florida | 21,973 | 0.8% (26,790,49) |
0.2% (9,613,669) |
30,540 | 1.2% (2,604,544) |
0.4% (8,355,817) |
+0.4 |
| Georgia | 13,677 | 6.4% (213,033) |
0.3% (4,147,161) |
7,512 | 3.1% (242,661) |
0.2% (3,951,876) |
-3.3 |
| Hawaii | 1,244 | 0.7% (190,553) |
0.3% (437,697) |
1,638 | 0.7% (224,492) |
0.4% (398,657) |
0.0 |
| Idaho | 876 | 0.4% (201,256) |
0.1% (710,495) |
1,188 | 1.6% (76,197) |
0.2% (612,582) |
+1.2 |
| Illinois | 5,994 | 1.6% (377,551) |
0.1% (5,562,009) |
9,056 | 2.2% (417,092) |
0.2% (4,751,180) |
+0.6 |
| Indiana | 2,095 | 0.2% (943,924) |
0.1% (2,831,540) |
3,413 | 0.4% (762,511) |
0.1% (2,933,234) |
+0.2 |
| Iowa | 4,238 | 0.7% (650,551) |
0.3% (1,581,371) |
5,098 | 1.6% (325,098) |
0.4% (1,334,279) |
+0.9 |
| Kansas | 4,361 | 2.4% (179,557) |
0.4% (1,223,491) |
1,879 | 1.1% (172,743) |
0.2% (1,070,221) |
-1.3 |
| Kentucky | 2,145 | 5.6% (38,112) |
0.1% (1,949,254) |
1,756 | 6.8% (25,837) |
0.1% (1,619,587) |
+1.2 |
| Louisiana | 2,271 | 3.8% (59,747) |
0.1% (2,049,802) |
2,596 | 5.9% (43,959) |
0.2% (1,519,552) |
+2.1 |
| Maine | 2,452 | 1.0% (254,153) |
0.3% (771,892) |
2,119 | 1.1% (185,763) |
0.3% (646,083) |
+0.1 |
| Maryland | 2,388 | 1.5% (160,508) |
0.1% (2,807,326) |
1,997 | 1.8% (113,702) |
0.1% (2,335,128) |
+0.3 |
| Massachusetts | 5,152 | 3.3% (155,894) |
0.2% (3,378,801) |
5,157 | 5.8% (89,437) |
0.2% (2,753,623) |
+2.5 |
| Michigan | 6,171 | 0.5% (1,260,218) |
0.1% (4,874,619) |
6,013 | 0.6% (1,061,835) |
0.1% (4,341,340) |
+0.1 |
| Minnesota | 6,081 | 0.9% (671,261) |
0.2% (2,973,744) |
7,479 | 1.2% (640,707) |
0.3% (2,618,245) |
+0.3 |
| Mississippi | 1,581 | 1.5% (103,606) |
0.1% (1,209,357) |
482 | 0.8% (64,060) |
0.1% (961,025) |
-0.7 |
| Missouri | 5,849 | 2.1% (279,188) |
0.2% (2,973,855) |
4,700 | 2.2% (215,879) |
0.2% (2,553,274) |
+0.1 |
| Montana | 1,125 | 0.3% (333,666) |
0.2% (516,901) |
1,373 | 0.4% (367,561) |
0.3% (508,652) |
+0.1 |
| Nebraska | 2,695 | 1.1% (238,660) |
0.3% (869,815) |
1,512 | 0.9% (168,844) |
0.2% (708,924) |
-0.2 |
| Nevada | 1,177 | 1.6% (73,425) |
0.1% (1,128,492) |
1,772 | 2.0% (86,633) |
0.2% (976,587) |
+0.4 |
| New Hampshire | 1,563 | 2.2% (71,939) |
0.2% (757,669) |
1,199 | 2.7% (44,615) |
0.2% (581,551) |
+0.5 |
| New Jersey | 9,957 | 2.8% (355,457) |
0.3% (3,957,303) |
11,694 | 2.9% (406,325) |
0.4% (3,248,642) |
+0.1 |
| New Mexico | 95 | 0.2% (61,287) |
0.0% (804,073) |
240[6] | 0.3% (68,616) |
0.0% (701,654) |
+0.1 |
| New York | 22,849 | 5.7% (402,151) |
0.3% (7,793,078) |
34,095 | 13.7% (249,002) |
0.5% (6,356,896) |
+8.0 |
| North Carolina | 4,861 | 2.7% (179,263) |
0.1% (4,690,195) |
5,835 | 6.1% (95,546) |
0.2% (3,705,224) |
+3.4 |
| North Dakota | 611 | 0.7% (82,148) |
0.2% (349,945) |
554 | 0.6% (96,125) |
0.2% (329,950) |
-0.1 |
| Ohio | 10,189 | 0.8% (1,206,416) |
0.2% (5,607,641) |
11,462 | 1.2% (941,447) |
0.3% (4,520,678) |
+0.4 |
| Oklahoma | 2,965 | 2.9% (101,905) |
0.2% (1,465,505) |
3,136 | 4.5% (69,771) |
0.3% (1,200,164) |
+1.6 |
| Oregon | 17,574 | 0.9% (2,051,452) |
0.9% (2,051,452) |
176 | 0.0% (1,907,342) |
0.0% (1,914,923) |
-0.9 |
| Pennsylvania | 2,534 | 1.0% (266,208) |
0.0% (6,223,150) |
8,714 | 4.4% (195,953) |
0.2% (5,057,630) |
+3.4 |
| Rhode Island | 1,060 | 2.7% (39,727) |
0.2% (469,547) |
775 | 2.8% (27,193) |
0.2% (389,161) |
+0.1 |
| South Carolina | 2,907 | 0.6% (497,436) |
0.1% (2,124,952) |
2,248[7] | 0.8% (291,908) |
0.1% (1,726,527) |
+0.2 |
| South Dakota | 360 | 0.3% (106,415) |
0.1% (372,988) |
300 | 0.3% (87,311) |
0.1% (340,324) |
0.0 |
| Tennessee | 593 | 1.1% (53,903) |
0.0% (2,545,271) |
855 | 2.2% (39,712) |
0.0% (2,267,428) |
+1.1 |
| Texas | 8,177 | 1.7% (468,150) |
0.1% (8,701,152) |
9,377 | 1.8% (533,566) |
0.1% (7,976,548) |
+0.1 |
| Utah | 7,002 | 0.9% (772,888) |
0.6% (1,114,567) |
8,768 | 0.9% (973,915) |
0.8% (1,082,972) |
0.0 |
| Virginia | 3,148 | 0.6% (538,711) |
0.1% (3,996,302) |
2,057 | 2.1% (97,295) |
0.1% (3,343,186) |
+1.5 |
| Vermont | -[8] | - | - | 722 | 2.7% (28,317) |
0.3% (268,758) |
N/A |
| Washington | 30,312 | 0.9% (3,333,260) |
0.9% (3,363,452) |
32,327 | 1.0% (3,112,157) |
1.0% (3,133,462) |
+0.1 |
| West Virginia | 341 | 2.7% (12,558) |
0.0% (732,362) |
104 | 1.0% (10,342) |
0.0% (597,149) |
-1.7 |
| Wisconsin | 284 | 0.2% (139,988) |
0.0% (2,993,000) |
2,517 | 1.7% (150,114) |
0.1% (2,688,341) |
+1.5 |
| Wyoming | 184 | 0.2% (79,667) |
0.1% (256,553) |
250 | 0.4% (61,806) |
0.1% (205,275) |
+0.2 |
| U.S. Total[9] | 318,728 | 1.0% (33,378,450) |
0.2% (140,114,503) |
430,190 | 1.4% (30,377,407) |
0.4% (120,314,461) |
+0.4 |
Comparison of counted absentee/mail-in ballots between 2016 and 2018 general elections
Between the 2016 and 2018 general elections, the share of absentee/mail-in ballots decreased from 23.5% of all ballots counted in 2016 to 23.2% in 2018. Numerically, absentee/mail-in ballots made up roughly 33 million of the 140 million ballots counted in the 2016 general election and 28 million of the 120 million counted in 2018.[10] For seventeen states, the percentage increased in 2018 compared to 2016 and for twenty-eight, the percentage decreased. Five states had incomplete or anomalous data, making a comparison inaccurate.[11]
To read more about the changes in absentee/mail-in voting percentages between 2016 and 2018, click here.
Uncalled races on election night following the 2018 general election
Twenty-two U.S. Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections were not called on election night in 2018.
Ballotpedia's analysis suggests that races with larger margins of victory are more likely to remain uncalled after election night when there is a larger percentage of absentee/mail-in voting than when more voting occurred in person. The length of time before a race was called appears to be contingent more so upon the eventual margin of victory than the share of absentee/mail-in votes.
All of the uncalled races with margins of victory greater than 2% were in states where more than half of ballots were cast by mail. In races where the eventual margin of victory was less than 2%, only one race was in a state where more than half of ballots were cast by mail and it remained uncalled for 30 days. In states with a smaller share of absentee/mail-in votes, the average wait time was 12 days.
To read more about Ballotpedia's analysis of uncalled races on election night in 2018, click here.
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External links
- U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2018 "Election Administration and Voting Survey"
- U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2016 "Election Administration and Voting Survey"
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis seeks to provide the most precise number of ballots cast by mail. However, 30 states allow for in-person absentee voting where voters receive and submit their absentee ballots at a physical location rather than by mail and, for some, they cannot accurately differentiate between absentee ballots submitted by mail and those submitted in-person. According to the EAC's 2018 report (pg. 11): "some states’ data management systems do not distinguish in-person absentee voters from by-mail voters, so not all of these states were able to report data on how many of their voters voted this way."
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "Absentee and Early Voting," July 30, 2019
- ↑ According to the 2016 report, 43 states reported data on reasons for the rejection of absentee/mail-in ballots. The 2018 report did not provide the number of states that report data on rejection reasons.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 This category was not included in the EAC's 2018 report.
- ↑ According to the 2016 report (p. 10), "'Other' encompasses additional reasons not listed in the EAVS questionnaire, and included responses such as the ballot was not properly notarized, the voter had already cast an absentee ballot, or there was incomplete information on the ballot envelope." According to the 2018 report (p. 14), other reasons included "the voter was not registered or eligible, the ballot was missing an important document (such as an affidavit or certification) or included an incomplete document, or that the voter had already voted with a different by-mail ballot or otherwise surrendered his/her by-mail ballot."
- ↑ The number of rejected ballots comes from the EAC report. Other turnout numbers and the associated percentages come from both the state's official canvas. The number of returned ballots was calculated by adding the number of rejected ballots to the number of counted absentee/mail-in ballots between the two reports.
- ↑ The number of rejected ballots comes from the EAC report. Other turnout numbers and the associated percentages come from a trends document located on the South Carolina Secretary of State's website. As a disclaimer, the document describes the number as "Ballots Cast" rather than ballots counted. This analysis assumes ballots cast equals ballots counted and calculated a number of ballots returned by adding the number of rejected ballots to the ballots cast total.
- ↑ Vermont did not report absentee/mail-in data for 2016
- ↑ Total includes all data from EAC reports including data from territories, which are not included in this table
- ↑ The number of ballots cast often differs from the number of ballots counted since states can reject ballots for a variety of reasons ranging from failing to provide a signature to using the incorrect return envelope. This analysis focuses on ballots counted rather than ballots cast.
- ↑ Those states were Oregon, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, and Hawaii.
