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Uncalled races on election night in the 2018 elections
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Twenty-two U.S. Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections were not called on election night in 2018. This page provides an analysis of those races using the length of time they remained uncalled, their eventual margins of victory, and the percentage of absentee/mail-in votes in each state.
Our analysis suggests that races with larger margins of victory are more likely to remain uncalled after election night when more than half of voting took place by mail than when more voting occurred in person. The length of time before a race is called after election night appears to be contingent more so upon the eventual margin of victory than the share of absentee/mail-in votes.
All of the uncalled races with margins of victory greater than 2% were in states where more than half of ballots were cast by mail. In races where the eventual margin of victory was less than 2%, only one race was in a state where more than half of ballots were cast by mail and it remained uncalled for 30 days. In states where fewer than half of ballots were cast by mail, the average wait time was 12 days.
All turnout data on this page was gathered from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission's (EAC) "Election Administration and Voting Survey" reports to Congress unless otherwise noted. The percentage of counted absentee/mail-in ballots was calculated by Ballotpedia by dividing the number of absentee/mail-in ballots counted by the total election turnout.
On this page you will find:
- An explanation of absentee/mail-in voting as it is used and analyzed on this page
- Analysis of uncalled races on election night following the 2018 general election
- A brief comparison of absentee/mail-in vote shares in the 2016 and 2018 general elections
- A brief comparison of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots in the 2016 and 2018 general elections by state
Absentee/mail-in voting
- See also: Absentee/mail-in voting
Absentee, mail-in or by-mail voting is voting that did not happen in person on Election Day but instead occurred another way (generally by mail).[1] All states allow for some form of absentee/mail-in balloting. Some states require voters to provide a reason to vote absentee/by mail; what counts as a valid reason may differ from state-to-state. Other states allow any eligible voter to cast an absentee/mail-in ballot without having to provide a reason.[2] Absentee/mail-in voting procedures can be divided into two categories: automatic absentee/mail-in ballot systems and request-required absentee/mail-in ballot systems. Automatic absentee/mail-in ballot systems mandate that all eligible voters receive either a ballot or ballot application by default. These are sometimes referred to as all-mail voting systems. Request-required absentee/mail-in ballot systems require that eligible voters initiate the process for receiving and casting absentee/mail-in ballots. These have traditionally been described as absentee voting systems.
In 2016 and 2018:
- Three states used an automatic absentee/mail-in ballot system.
- Sixteen states required voters to provide an approved reason in order to receive an absentee/mail-in ballot.
- Thirty states allowed voters to request an absentee/mail-in ballot without providing a reason.
- One state allowed voters to request an absentee/mail-in ballot without an excuse in 2016 and switched to an automatic absentee/mail-in ballot system in 2018.
(hover over bolded text to view states)
Uncalled races on election night following the 2018 general election
Twenty-two U.S. Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections were not called on election night in 2018.
Ballotpedia's analysis suggests that races with larger margins of victory are more likely to remain uncalled after election night when there is a larger percentage of absentee/mail-in voting than when more voting occurred in person. The length of time before a race was called appears to be contingent more so upon the eventual margin of victory than the share of absentee/mail-in votes.
All of the uncalled races with margins of victory greater than 2% were in states where more than half of ballots were cast by mail. In races where the eventual margin of victory was less than 2%, only one race was in a state where more than half of ballots were cast by mail and it remained uncalled for 30 days. In states with a smaller share of absentee/mail-in votes, the average wait time was 12 days.
The graph below shows an analysis of uncalled races following the 2018 general election. The x-axis shows that number of days after the general election when the races were called. The y-axis shows the eventual margin of victory. Blue dots represent races in states where more than half of ballots were cast by mail. Yellow dots represent races in states where less than half of ballots were cast by mail.
Race breakdown
Four races were called the day after the election. The longest wait was 30 days in California's 21st Congressional District, where TJ Cox (D) was not declared the winner until December 6. Roughly 60% of ballots were cast by mail in California in 2018.
Democrats eventually won 14 of the 22 races. Republicans won seven. The race in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District was never called. Following a hearing on alleged ballot tampering and election fraud, the North Carolina Board of Elections did not certify the election results and voted to call for a new election on February 21, 2019, which was won by Dan Bishop (R).
Eight states had one uncalled race on election night. Four states had more than one race. Those four states were:
- California. Seven uncalled races and an absentee/mail-in ballot share of 59.9%.
- Georgia. Three uncalled races and an absentee/mail-in ballot share of 5.5%.
- Florida. Two uncalled races and an absentee/mail-in ballot share of 30.9%.
- New York. Two uncalled races and an absentee/mail-in ballot share of 3.6%.
The table below lists the 22 U.S. Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections that were not called on election night in 2018. Races are listed in order by the length of time between November 6 and the date each race was called. Also included is the eventual margin of victory and percentage of votes cast by mail in each state according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2018 report unless otherwise noted.
Comparison of counted absentee/mail-in ballots between 2016 and 2018 general elections
Between the 2016 and 2018 general elections, the share of absentee/mail-in ballots decreased from 23.5% of all ballots counted in 2016 to 23.2% in 2018. Numerically, absentee/mail-in ballots made up roughly 33 million of the 140 million ballots counted in the 2016 general election and 28 million of the 120 million counted in 2018.[5] For seventeen states, the percentage increased in 2018 compared to 2016 and for twenty-eight, the percentage decreased. Five states had incomplete or anomalous data, making a comparison inaccurate.[6]
To read more about the changes in absentee/mail-in voting percentages between 2016 and 2018, click here.
Comparison of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots between 2016 and 2018 general elections
For thirty-five states, the percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots increased in 2018 compared to 2016 and for nine, the percentage decreased. Five states had no change and one—Vermont—had incomplete data and was excluded from this comparison. Nationwide, the share of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots increased from 1.0% of all absentee/mail-in ballots returned in 2016 to 1.4% in 2018.
The percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots was less than 1% in 23 states in 2016 and greater than or equal to 1% in 26. In 2018, the percentage was less than 1% in 15 states and greater than or equal to 1% in 35.
To read more about the changes in rejected absentee/mail-in ballots between 2016 and 2018, click here.
The 2020 election took place against a backdrop of uncertainty. Our readers had questions about what to expect in elections at all levels of government, from the casting of ballots to the certification of final results. Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk was designed to answer those questions.
More frequently asked questions about the 2020 election
Click on a question below to read the answer:
- General election information
- Who runs elections in the United States?
- Why do states have different election rules?
- What methods do states use to prevent election fraud?
- Do you have to vote for everything on your ballot?
- What happens if you mark outside the lines or use the wrong pen/pencil?
- What is a spoiled ballot?
- What is a write-in candidate?
- How can I check the status of my ballot?
- Can I take a ballot selfie?
- Presidential election
- What happens if a presidential candidate declares victory in the 2020 election before results are final?
- Can presidential candidates win the election if they have already conceded?
- What are the steps and deadlines for electing the President of the United States?
- What happens if there is a tie in the Electoral College?
- What are faithless electors in the Electoral College?
- What happens if a presidential nominee becomes incapacitated before the election?
- Can members of Congress object to Electoral College results?
- Processing and counting absentee/mail-in ballots
- What is the life cycle of an absentee/mail-in ballot?
- What happens if I vote by mail and want to change my ballot at a later date?
- What happens if someone votes by mail and then tries to vote in person?
- How do states protect and verify absentee/mail-in ballots?
- How do election workers match signatures?
- Are results reported on election night coming from in-person or absentee/mail-in votes?
- Do states report how many mail-in/absentee ballots are outstanding on election night?
- Do absentee/mail-in ballots take longer to count than in-person ballots?
- What happens if someone votes by mail-in ballot or absentee ballot and subsequently passes away before Election Day?
- Disputing election results
- How will election recounts work?
- How close does an election have to be to trigger an automatic recount?
- Can a candidate or voter request a recount?
- Who pays for recounts and contested elections?
- What are poll watchers?
- What does it mean to challenge a voter's eligibility, and who can do it?
- What is a redo election?
- Who can file election-related lawsuits?
- What are the reasons to call a redo election?
- Who can call a redo election?
- Can a redo be held for a presidential election?
- Transitions of power and taking office
- Who is the president if election results are unknown by January 20, 2021?
- Who serves in Congress if election results are unknown by January 2021?
- Who serves in a state or local government if election results are unknown?
- What happens if the winning presidential candidate becomes incapacitated before taking office?
- Articles about potential scenarios in the 2020 election
- U.S. Supreme Court actions affecting the November 3, 2020, general election
External links
- U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2018 "Election Administration and Voting Survey"
- U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2016 "Election Administration and Voting Survey"
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis seeks to provide the most precise number of ballots cast by mail. However, 30 states allow for in-person absentee voting where voters receive and submit their absentee ballots at a physical location rather than by mail and, for some, they cannot accurately differentiate between absentee ballots submitted by mail and those submitted in-person. According to the EAC's 2018 report (pg. 11): "some states’ data management systems do not distinguish in-person absentee voters from by-mail voters, so not all of these states were able to report data on how many of their voters voted this way."
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "Absentee and Early Voting," July 30, 2019
- ↑ Votes by mail percentages gathered from U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2018 "Election Administration and Voting Survey" report to Congress
- ↑ The numbers provided for New Mexico in 2018 come from the state's official canvas rather than the EAC report. In the EAC report, the state reported 448,987 absentee/mail-in ballots, 64.4% of the turnout listed as 697,681. The number of absentee/mail-in ballots reported by the state to the EAC most closely equals the number of absentee/mail-in ballots plus the number of early voting ballots reported on the canvas. Ballotpedia has only included the canvas' reported number of absentee ballots here.
- ↑ The number of ballots cast often differs from the number of ballots counted since states can reject ballots for a variety of reasons ranging from failing to provide a signature to using the incorrect return envelope. This analysis focuses on ballots counted rather than ballots cast.
- ↑ Those states were Oregon, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, and Hawaii.
