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Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for April 23, 2018
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
April 23, 2018: When a state legislator is prevented from running again due to term limits, the opposing party wins the seat 13% of the time. While such turnover may seem relatively modest, a Ballotpedia analysis found that it is twice as high as for non-term-limited seats.
The study analyzed 890 seats in 15 states held by a term-limited legislator from 2010 to 2011 and from 2013 to 2016. In 120 of those races (13%), the term-limited officials were replaced by an officeholder of a different political party.
Due to redistricting issues, the 2012 elections were not included in this study. See methodology.
Over the same time period, 19,642 non-term-limited state legislative seats were up for election. Of these non-term-limited seats, 1,329 seats, or roughly 7 percent, changed partisan control.
The following term-limited state legislative seats changed political party control from 2010-2011 and 2013-2016:
- 96 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican
- 20 state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat
- Three state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to independent
- One state legislative seat flipped from independent to Republican
The following states demonstrated notable partisan shifts in term-limited state legislative districts from 2010-2011 and 2013-2016:
- In Arkansas, 22 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican.
- In Oklahoma, 14 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican.
- In Maine, 15 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican, 14 state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat, and three state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to independent.
- In Montana, 13 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican while one state legislative seat flipped from Republican to Democrat.
- In Missouri, 10 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican while one state legislative seat flipped from Republican to Democrat.
- In Michigan, 10 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican while two state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat.
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
- April 20, 2018 – $68 million budget for Harry Potter on Broadway
- April 19, 2018 – 24 percent of American adults say they’ll never use a self-driving car
- April 18, 2018 – $76,111 a month pension for retired university president
- April 17, 2018 – 18.7 million U.S. homes have smart speakers
- April 16, 2018 – 342,057,461 visits to IRS.gov
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
The Number of the Day is broadcast on local stations across the country. An archive of these broadcasts can be found here.
Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
Ballotpedia is the nonprofit, nonpartisan Encyclopedia of American Politics.
See also
- Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day
- Impact of term limits on the partisan control of state legislative seats, 2010-2011 and 2013-2016
Footnotes
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