Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for July 17, 2017
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
July 17, 2017: During the 2016 presidential election, nearly half of all votes in Maine (44 percent) were cast in Pivot Counties. The state is home to eight of the nation's 206 Pivot Counties—counties that voted twice for Barack Obama before voting for Donald Trump. In Maine, Obama won the Pivot Counties by 11 percentage points in 2008 and by 9 points in 2012. However, Trump carried these counties by 11 percentage points in 2016. Found in the northern part of the state, Maine's Pivot Counties enabled Trump to win the state’s 2nd Congressional District and pick up an Electoral College vote from the state. Prior to 2016, no Republican had won an Electoral College vote in Maine since 1988.
| Maine Pivot Counties | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 51.6% | 44.0% | 43.5% |
| Democrat | 40.6% | 53.0% | 54.4% |
| Margin | R+11.0 | D+9.0 | D+10.9 |
In raw vote totals, Trump lost the state by fewer than 20,000 votes. Mitt Romney and John McCain lost the statewide total by more than 100,000 votes each. Because the Pivot Counties represent such a sizable share of Maine voters, they could play a significant role in the 2018 U.S. Senate election. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, is one of 19 Democratic senators running for re-election in a state with Pivot Counties. King is currently favored to win re-election, but analysts disagree on whether the seat is safe for Democrats or if it merely leans in that direction.
From now until Election 2018, Ballotpedia will regularly release new Pivot County data to explore what these counties can teach us about national trends and the midterm elections.
The Maine Pivot Counties are Androscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, Penobscot, Somerset, and Washington.
While casting 44 percent of the vote in Maine, the Pivot Counties accounted for 73 percent of the net Republican gains in the state. Twenty-five percent of the gains came from declining Democratic margins in solidly Democratic counties.
| Maine | Net vote change from 2012 to 2016 | % of net votes gained by GOP in 2016 | % of total votes cast in 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 64,427 | 73.2% | 44.0% |
| Solid GOP | 1,927 | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Solid Dem | 21,690 | 24.6% | 54.7% |
| Total | 88,044 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
In many states, including Iowa and Michigan, the Pivot Counties had an outsized impact on the results. In states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, increased margins in solidly Republican counties played a bigger role. In Wisconsin, the biggest impact came from counties that voted for Obama in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Trump in 2016.
The table below shows the Republican margins contributed by each type of county in the last three presidential elections.
| Maine counties | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 36,275 | -28,152 | -35,868 |
| Solid GOP | 2,308 | 381 | 355 |
| Solid Dem | -58,356 | -80,046 | -91,137 |
| Total | -19,773 | -107,817 | -126,650 |
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
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