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State Ballot Measure Monthly: March 2018
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By Ballot Measures Project staff
Fifty-nine (59) statewide ballot measures in 25 states have been certified for 2018 ballots so far. In the last month, 18 new statewide measures were certified to go before voters in 2018.
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This year is starting out with a lower-than-average number of statewide measures certified for the ballot. The average number of certified measures for even-numbered years from 2010 through 2016 was 83 by the eleventh Tuesday of the year. The average number of total statewide measures certified for the ballot by the end of the year from 2010 through 2016 was 173.
- 2010: By the eleventh week in 2010, 100 measures had been certified for the 2010 ballot
- Ultimately, 184 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2010.
- 2012: By the eleventh week in 2012, 78 measures had been certified for the 2012 ballot
- Ultimately, 188 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2012.
- 2014: By the eleventh week in 2014, 82 measures had been certified for the 2014 ballot.
- Ultimately, 158 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2014.
- 2016: By the eleventh week in 2016, 72 measures had been certified for the 2016 ballot.
- Ultimately, 162 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2016.
Graphing the data:
The graph below shows the number of certifications in each week of 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016, as well as the average for each week. The graph also shows 2018 certifications and will be updated each week until ballots are finalized for all states, and the last measure is certified for the ballot.
Follow Ballotpedia's Tuesday Count for 2018 to see a full list and timeline of certifications.
2018 certifications
From February 14 through March 16 the following measures were certified for the ballot on the dates listed:
February 16:
- South Dakota Initiated Measure 25 - Enough signatures were verified by the South Dakota secretary of state to certify this initiative for the ballot. It would increase the tax on cigarettes from about $1.53 per pack of 20 cigarettes to $2.53 per pack of 20 cigarettes and increase the tax on wholesale tobacco products from 35 to 55 percent, with a portion of tobacco tax revenue dedicated to technical institutes.
February 22:
- University of Alabama Board Membership Amendment - The state House unanimously gave this constitutional amendment the final approval it needed to go before voters in November. It would remove the superintendent of education from the board of trustees of the University of Alabama; establish that, for the purposes of districts for the board of trustees membership, the congressional districts in use as of January 1, 2018, would be used; and remove the constitutional provision establishing an age limit of 70 for members of the board.
February 27:
- South Dakota Amendment X - The state House voted along partisan lines to approve this amendment for the ballot. Since the state Senate approved it on January 24, the House vote certified it for the ballot. It would require a 55 percent supermajority vote at the ballot to approve future amendments to the state constitution, including both initiated constitutional amendments and legislatively referred constitutional amendments.
February 28:
- Virginia Tax Exemption for Flood Abatement Amendment - The state House gave the final approval to this amendment in the second session of consideration required to put it on the ballot. It would empower the state legislature to authorize local governments to provide a partial local property tax exemption for real estate subject to recurrent flooding that undertook improvements to abate or mitigate flooding or become more resilient against flooding.
March 1:
- Oregon Affordable Housing Bonds to Fund Privately Own Projects Amendment - This amendment would allow counties, cities, and towns to—with voter approval and certain restrictions—use bond revenue to fund the construction of affordable housing without necessarily retaining complete ownership of the constructed housing. This amendment was supported by the Portland City Hall to allow the city to use its affordable housing bonds in combination with certain money provided by the federal government.
March 5:
- Virginia Expand Tax Exemption for Spouses of Veterans Amendment - The state House gave the final approval to this amendment in the second session of consideration required to put it on the ballot. It would remove a restriction on where the surviving spouse of a disabled military veteran may have his or her principal place of residence in order to receive a property tax exemption.
- Florida Two-Thirds Vote for Tax Increases Amendment - The state Senate approved the amendment partially along partisan lines, sending it to the ballot since the House had also passed it by more than the 60 percent supermajority required. It would require a two-thirds vote of each chamber of the Florida State Legislature to enact new taxes or fees or increase existing ones.
- Maine Ranked-Choice Voting Referendum - The Maine secretary of state confirmed that the Committee for Ranked Choice Voting submitted enough valid signatures to put this referendum on the ballot. It would overturn Legislative Document 1646 (LD 1646), which was written to postpone and repeal ranked-choice voting (RCV) unless a constitutional amendment is passed before December 1, 2021, to enable the legislature to determine election methods.
- West Virginia No Right to Abortion Amendment - The state House approved the amendment by more than the two-thirds (66.67%) vote required; Republicans and 10 Democrats voted for it, and 25 Democrats voted against it. This sent it to the ballot since the Senate approved the amendment on February 9. It would add language to the West Virginia Constitution stating that "nothing in this Constitution secures or protects a right to abortion or requires the funding of abortion."
March 6:
- Utah Tax Exemption for Government Lease Amendment - The state legislature voted largely along party lines to put this amendment on the ballot. It would allow property tax exemptions for properties leased by a local or state government entity.
March 7:
- South Dakota Amendment Y - This amendment would make changes to the Marsy's Law crime victim rights amendment passed by voters in 2016. It was drafted as a compromise between legislators, who had proposed repealing the 2016 initiative altogether, and Marsy's Law for All, the group that backed the 2016 South Dakota initiative and other Marsy's Laws across the country.
- South Dakota Amendment Z - This amendment was approved by the legislature along partisan lines, with Republicans in favor and Democrats opposed. It would require that all constitutional amendments—whether initiated constitutional amendments or legislatively referred constitutional amendments—concern only one subject and that multiple proposed amendments to the constitution must be voted on separately. Amendment Z is one of many laws concerning direct democracy in South Dakota to be approved during the 2018 session.
- New Mexico Senior Citizen Bond Issue - $10.77 million in bonds
- New Mexico Libraries Bond Issue - $12.876 million in bonds
- New Mexico School Buses Bond Issue - $6.137 million in bonds
- New Mexico Schools/Education Bond Issue - $128.405 million in bonds
- Utah Special Sessions Called by Legislature - Both chambers signed off on the final version of this amendment on March 7. It would allow the state legislature to call a special session of up to ten days through two-thirds approval of all legislators with the following restrictions: (a) appropriations made during the session could be no greater than 1 percent of the annual budget as determined by total appropriations for the preceding fiscal year and (b) the session could not be convened for at least 30 days after the adjournment of the regular session.
March 10:
- West Virginia Amendment 2 - This amendment was approved unanimously in both chambers of the legislature to reach the ballot. It would authorize the legislature to reduce portions of the budget of the state judiciary, provided any reductions or changes in budgeting for the state judiciary were not contingent on a court ruling, order, or other court action.
Failed initiatives and measures passed by the legislature
Top two primaries, independent redistricting commission, and vote-by-mail initiatives fall short of the signature requirement:
The South Dakota secretary of state announced that three of the eight 2018 initiatives for which signatures were submitted failed to qualify for the ballot. Three initiatives were already certified for the ballot, and two are pending signature verification.
- Open Primaries submitted over 37,000 signatures for its initiative to establish a top-two primary election system and needed at least 27,741 (75 percent) of them to be valid. On March 2, 2018, the South Dakota secretary of state announced that the not enough of the signatures submitted for the initiative were valid; the petition fell short by 2,236 signatures.
- Citizens for Fair Elections submitted over 34,000 signatures for its initiative to establish an independent redistricting commission for state legislative redistricting. It needed 27,741 (81.6 percent) of them to be valid for the initiative to make the ballot. On March 12, 2018, the secretary of state announced that the initiative petition was 2,469 signatures short of the requirement and that the initiative had failed to qualify for the ballot.
- Vote at Home submitted over 20,000 signatures for its vote-by-mail initiative. At least 13,871 (69.36 percent) of those signatures needed to be valid in order for the measure to qualify for the 2018 ballot. On March 16, 2018, the secretary of state reported that this initiative petition fell short of the signature requirement by 2,916 signatures because not enough of the submitted signatures were valid and that the initiative would not be on the ballot.
Washington legislature sidesteps election by passing police deadly force initiative and alterations separately, prompting active initiative sponsor Tim Eyman to sue:
De-Escalate Washington filed more than 350,000 signatures on December 28, 2017, for its initiative to allow prosecution of more police officers for the use of deadly force. It was designed to remove the requirement that prosecutors show that a law enforcement officer acted with malice to be convicted and establishing de-escalation training requirements for police. On January 23, 2018, the office of the secretary of state certified that enough valid signatures had been submitted to qualify the measure for the ballot, and the initiative was sent to the legislature. State law gives the legislature three options upon the verification of a sufficient initiative petition for an Initiative to the Legislature: (1) the legislature can approve the initiative unaltered; (2) the legislature can send the initiative to the voters; and (3) the legislature can send the initiative and an alternative proposal to the voters. Legislators went a fourth route with Initiative 940: they approved the initiative and approved a bill to make alterations to it—House Bill 3003—to take effect one day following the approval of Initiative 940. House Bill 3003 was the result of negotiations with certain law enforcement agencies and De-Escalate Washington.
Tim Eyman, a political activist who has sponsored or worked on a number of ballot initiative campaigns in Washington, filed a lawsuit against the state on March 12, 2018, arguing that the passage of legislation to alter Initiative 940—the police deadline force initiative—was unconstitutional and violated the state's process for Initiatives to the Legislature. Eyman said, "The Legislature went rogue, disrespecting the initiative petition signers and preventing voters from exercising their right to vote.” Sen. Maralyn Chase, who voted in favor of HB 3003, said, “This is a worthy endeavor. I think it takes precedence over what the Constitution says about initiatives.” Sen. Jamie Pedersen (D) said that HB 3003 does not undermine the initiative process, arguing that the legislature can amend or repeal initiatives to the legislature if the legislature passes them itself. Pedersen said, “We could have called a special session in June and amended I-940 after it went into effect. Can we do it with contingency legislation? I think we should be able to, but it’s fair to say that’s a novel question.”
Utah voters to decide gas tax increase advisory question instead of an initiative to increase income and sales taxes due to compromise over education funding:
Our Schools Now filed and circulated an initiative designed to raise about $700 million per year for education through an income tax increase and a sales tax increase. The group, however, negotiated a compromise with the state legislature that resulted in the approval of two pieces of legislation during the 2018 session designed to increase revenue for education:
- House Joint Resolution 20, which was enrolled on Thursday, provided for the submission of a non-binding advisory question to the voters at the November 2018 election asking whether voters supported increasing gas taxes by $0.10 per gallon to fund local roads, which would, in turn, free up revenue from the general fund for education. Revenue from the tax was estimated at about $100 million per year. Going into the session, Utah law did not provide for a process for this type of non-binding opinion question. Along with HJR 20, the legislature approved House Bill 491, designed to establish the process and then automatically repeal it after the election. The question is certified for the ballot, provided HB 491 is signed by the governor, who has expressed support for the compromise deal.
- House Bill 293, given final approval on March 8, 2018, and signed by the speaker of the House on March 13, 2018, was designed to freeze property tax rates—which otherwise would have been adjusted downward. It also decreased income tax rates to 4.95 percent. The bill provided a net gain for education spending. Estimates stated that, together, HB 293 and the proposed gas tax—provided it is approved first by voters and then by the legislature—would provide about $375 million in additional education spending per year. HB 293 was sent to the governor's desk, who has expressed support for the deal.
The Salt Lake Tribune reported that, following the approval of HB 293 and HJR 20, Our Schools Now was expected to cease collecting signatures to put this initiative on the ballot. Lane Beattie, president and CEO of the Salt Lake Chamber and member of the Our Schools Now steering committee, said, “The Salt Lake Chamber has been an ardent supporter of greater investment in Utah’s education system, modernizing our tax code and ensuring our infrastructure is equipped to handle our robust population growth, this solution addresses all three. Our support of the Our Schools Now initiative has always come with the hope that a legislative solution could be reached. We are thrilled with the efforts of dozens of stakeholders to find a compromise and now urge members of the legislature to support this comprehensive package.
Context from past years
In 2016, there was a surge in the number of citizen-initiated measures; 76 initiatives and veto referendums were put on the ballot. This was more citizen-initiated measures than we've seen since 2006.
For initiatives to reach the ballot, they must first be filed for the various approval processes in each state and circulated for signature gathering. Only a small percentage of the initiatives filed actually make the ballot. For example, for the 2016 election cycle, an above-average 1,069 initiatives were filed with state officials. This resulted in 2016's 76 certified citizen-initiated measures, a success rate of 7 percent. Since 2010, Maryland (75%), South Dakota (73%), North Dakota (47%), Alaska (43%), and Maine (32%) had the highest success rates on average. Maryland has a veto referendum process but no initiative process; since 2010, four veto referendums have been filed, and three made the ballot.
As of March 1, 2018, 840 initiatives had been filed for circulation targeting 2018 elections. By March 1, 2016, 955 initiatives had been filed targeting the 2016 ballot. In 2010, 2012, and 2014, the average total number of initiatives filed with state officials was about 610. Of the 26 states that feature an initiative process, 2018 initiatives or veto referendums were filed for circulation in 23 of them. Topics range from marijuana legalization, minimum wage, healthcare, and right to work to taxes, education, election and campaign finance rules, and redistricting. Click on the links below to see what initiatives are circulating in your state.
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Illinois, Maryland, and New Mexico had no filings as of November 1, 2017. Maryland and New Mexico feature the veto referendum power but do not have a process for ballot initiativess. Illinois' initiative process has severe subject restrictions limiting initiatives to procedural elements of laws governing the state legislature.
On average since 2010, the most initiatives were filed in Washington, California, and Colorado, where more than 100 are filed for any given even-numbered year on average. California has seen the highest average number of successful initiative attempts. For 2018, Missouri has seen the most filings at 360—more than three and a half times the state's average of 97 since 2010. Look into the signature submission deadlines for 2018 initiatives and veto referendums to understand the timeline for each state.
The map and expandable chart below show the average success rates per year of filed initiatives and referendums (I&R) in each state over the last eight years (in even-numbered years).
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The percentage of filed initiatives that reach the ballot does not necessarily correlate with the ease or difficulty of putting an initiative on the ballot in that state. Some states make filing more difficult or more expensive, making only more serious petitioners take that first step. In some states, initiative proponents file multiple versions of substantively the same initiative and ultimately put their efforts behind one.
The data—including the specific success percentage rates—represented by the map above is available below and can be expanded by clicking show.
| Data for average even-year initiative success rates (2010-2018) | |||
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| State | Av. filed | Av. certified | Av. success rate |
| Alabama | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Alaska | 5.20 | 2.00 | 38.46% |
| Arizona | 27.40 | 1.60 | 5.84% |
| Arkansas | 7.40 | 1.60 | 21.62% |
| California | 95.00 | 10.20 | 10.74% |
| Colorado | 102.80 | 5.00 | 4.86% |
| Connecticut | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Delaware | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Florida | 29.20 | 1.80 | 6.16% |
| Georgia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Hawaii | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Idaho | 7.80 | 1.00 | 12.82% |
| Illinois | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Indiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Iowa | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kansas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kentucky | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Louisiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Maine | 6.20 | 2.20 | 35.48% |
| Maryland | 0.80 | 0.60 | 75.00% |
| Massachusetts | 31.80 | 3.40 | 10.69% |
| Michigan | 11.20 | 2.20 | 19.64% |
| Minnesota | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Mississippi | 8.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Missouri | 184.50 | 3.20 | 1.73% |
| Montana | 18.80 | 2.20 | 11.70% |
| Nebraska | 6.60 | 0.60 | 9.09% |
| Nevada | 9.40 | 1.80 | 19.15% |
| New Hampshire | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Jersey | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Mexico | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0% |
| New York | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Dakota | 7.60 | 3.80 | 50.00% |
| Ohio | 21.80 | 0.40 | 1.83% |
| Oklahoma | 6.80 | 1.20 | 17.65% |
| Oregon | 63.00 | 5.60 | 8.89% |
| Pennsylvania | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Rhode Island | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Dakota | 8.40 | 3.80 | 45.24% |
| Tennessee | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Texas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Utah | 2.60 | 0.60 | 23.08% |
| Vermont | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Washington | 128.60 | 4.60 | 3.58% |
| West Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wisconsin | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wyoming | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Average total | 756.20 | 59.40 | 7.86% |
See also
- 2018 ballot measures
- List of ballot measures by state
- List of ballot measures by year
- Ballot initiatives filed for the 2018 ballot
- Ballot Measure Scorecard, 2018
- Ballotpedia's Tuesday Count for 2018
Related articles
Footnotes
- ↑ The numbers in the second column indicate how many ballot measures were certified for the ballot in the last month; for example a "+3" means that three measures were certified in the last month.
- ↑ This number includes citizen-initiated measures, legislative referrals, and an automatically referred measure. So far, 15 measures have qualified for the ballot through signature petition drives.
- ↑ This was current as of March 16, 2018.
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