United States House election in Alaska, 2020 (August 18 Republican primary)
- Primary date: Aug. 18
- Primary type: Open (Democratic, Libertarian, and Alaskan Independence parties); semi-closed (Republican)
- Registration deadline(s): July 19
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Early voting starts: Aug. 3
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Aug. 18 (postmarked)
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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| Alaska's At-Large Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: June 1, 2020 |
| Primary: August 18, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Don Young (R) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Alaska |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Likely Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • At-large Alaska elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
The 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Alaska took place on November 3, 2020. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's one at-large congressional district. This page focuses on the Republican primary that took place in Alaska on August 18, 2020.
Click here for more information about the Democratic primary.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Don Young, who was first elected in 1973.
Alaska uses a top-four primary for congressional and state-level offices. Under Alaska's top-four primary system, all candidates for a given office run in a single primary election. The top four vote-getters, regardless of partisan affiliation, then advance to the general election.[1][2]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Political party events in Alaska were modified as follows:
- Political party events: The Democratic Party of Alaska canceled in-person voting in its presidential preference primary, originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. All voting was conducted by mail. The receipt deadline for mail-in ballots was April 20, 2020.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
| Candidate ballot access |
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At-large district
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Alaska At-large District
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Don Young | 76.1 | 51,972 |
| Thomas Nelson | 18.1 | 12,344 | ||
| Gerald Heikes | 5.8 | 3,954 | ||
| Total votes: 68,270 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Arianna Cocallas (R)
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Alaska are Pivot Counties.
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Alaska with 51.3 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 36.6 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 5.9 percent, which was his third-best showing in a state in 2016.[3] From when it gained statehood in 1959 to 2017, Alaska voted Republican in 14 out of 15 presidential elections. The only time it voted Democratic was in 1964 when President Lyndon Johnson (D) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater (R) with 61.1 percent of the national vote.[4] From 1960 to 2016, Alaska voted for the winning presidential candidate in 60 percent of presidential elections.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Alaska. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 13 out of 40 state House districts in Alaska with an average margin of victory of 20.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 13 out of 40 state House districts in Alaska with an average margin of victory of 17.3 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 27 out of 40 state House districts in Alaska with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 27 out of 40 state House districts in Alaska with an average margin of victory of 27.4 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 43.1% | 53.0% | R+9.9 | 40.2% | 49.5% | R+9.4 | D |
| 2 | 35.1% | 61.6% | R+26.5 | 29.9% | 59.9% | R+30.1 | R |
| 3 | 21.9% | 74.9% | R+53 | 16.8% | 73.1% | R+56.2 | R |
| 4 | 48.1% | 47.0% | D+1.1 | 45.4% | 44.3% | D+1.1 | D |
| 5 | 42.0% | 53.7% | R+11.7 | 41.7% | 48.1% | R+6.4 | D |
| 6 | 34.6% | 61.3% | R+26.6 | 30.9% | 59.9% | R+29 | R |
| 7 | 22.6% | 74.3% | R+51.7 | 18.7% | 73.2% | R+54.6 | R |
| 8 | 21.5% | 75.3% | R+53.8 | 15.4% | 77.3% | R+61.9 | R |
| 9 | 28.0% | 68.3% | R+40.3 | 21.2% | 69.8% | R+48.7 | R |
| 10 | 26.2% | 70.1% | R+43.9 | 20.5% | 70.9% | R+50.4 | R |
| 11 | 25.9% | 70.8% | R+44.8 | 22.8% | 68.6% | R+45.7 | R |
| 12 | 25.3% | 71.9% | R+46.6 | 20.8% | 71.2% | R+50.4 | R |
| 13 | 30.3% | 66.6% | R+36.2 | 26.6% | 63.5% | R+36.9 | R |
| 14 | 30.5% | 67.0% | R+36.5 | 30.4% | 59.5% | R+29.2 | R |
| 15 | 42.6% | 54.5% | R+11.9 | 37.8% | 52.0% | R+14.3 | R |
| 16 | 47.7% | 49.3% | R+1.6 | 45.7% | 44.4% | D+1.4 | D |
| 17 | 51.3% | 44.9% | D+6.4 | 50.1% | 39.8% | D+10.3 | D |
| 18 | 56.4% | 40.4% | D+16 | 54.2% | 37.2% | D+17.1 | D |
| 19 | 62.8% | 34.0% | D+28.9 | 56.8% | 34.8% | D+22.1 | D |
| 20 | 61.9% | 34.5% | D+27.4 | 59.9% | 31.5% | D+28.4 | D |
| 21 | 50.2% | 46.9% | D+3.3 | 50.1% | 41.2% | D+8.9 | D |
| 22 | 39.1% | 57.7% | R+18.6 | 40.3% | 51.7% | R+11.4 | I |
| 23 | 44.0% | 53.0% | R+9 | 42.8% | 47.9% | R+5.1 | D |
| 24 | 37.7% | 59.9% | R+22.2 | 39.6% | 52.0% | R+12.4 | R |
| 25 | 43.2% | 54.0% | R+10.8 | 42.6% | 48.1% | R+5.4 | R |
| 26 | 38.1% | 59.3% | R+21.2 | 39.0% | 52.5% | R+13.5 | R |
| 27 | 43.6% | 53.3% | R+9.7 | 43.7% | 47.8% | R+4.1 | R |
| 28 | 41.5% | 55.9% | R+14.4 | 42.8% | 48.8% | R+6 | R |
| 29 | 26.2% | 70.4% | R+44.2 | 23.0% | 69.2% | R+46.3 | R |
| 30 | 24.3% | 72.8% | R+48.5 | 20.8% | 70.7% | R+49.9 | R |
| 31 | 37.5% | 58.8% | R+21.2 | 34.8% | 56.3% | R+21.5 | R |
| 32 | 41.6% | 54.9% | R+13.4 | 37.1% | 51.6% | R+14.5 | R |
| 33 | 63.2% | 31.9% | D+31.3 | 61.9% | 28.2% | D+33.7 | D |
| 34 | 50.5% | 45.7% | D+4.8 | 46.1% | 43.1% | D+3 | D |
| 35 | 51.0% | 44.7% | D+6.4 | 42.7% | 46.6% | R+4 | D |
| 36 | 41.0% | 54.4% | R+13.5 | 33.5% | 55.3% | R+21.8 | I |
| 37 | 55.8% | 40.6% | D+15.2 | 49.4% | 39.5% | D+9.9 | D |
| 38 | 72.1% | 23.4% | D+48.7 | 57.7% | 23.9% | D+33.8 | D |
| 39 | 69.1% | 26.1% | D+42.9 | 59.7% | 26.7% | D+33.1 | D |
| 40 | 64.8% | 31.8% | D+33.1 | 54.1% | 31.8% | D+22.3 | D |
| Total | 41.2% | 55.3% | R+14.1 | 37.6% | 52.8% | R+15.2 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Alaska's At-Large Congressional District the 141st most Republican nationally.[7]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.16. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.16 points toward that party.[8]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Young | Republican Party | $1,950,290 | $1,817,837 | $249,173 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Gerald Heikes | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Thomas Nelson | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]
| Race ratings: Alaska's At-large Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
See also
- United States House election in Alaska, 2020 (August 18 Democratic primary)
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
- United States House election in Alaska (August 21, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House election in Alaska (August 21, 2018 Democratic primary)
Footnotes
- ↑ NCSL, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 15, 2024
- ↑ Alaska Division of Elections, "August 18, 2020 Primary Election Information," accessed July 15, 2024
- ↑ Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "2016 Presidential General Election Data - National," accessed May 31, 2017
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Historical Presidential Elections," accessed May 31, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
