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Analysis of absentee/mail-in voting, 2016-2018
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Between the 2016 and 2018 general elections, the share of absentee/mail-in ballots decreased from 23.5% of all ballots counted in 2016 to 23.2% in 2018. Numerically, absentee/mail-in ballots made up roughly 33 million of the 140 million ballots counted in the 2016 general election and 28 million of the 120 million counted in 2018.
This page provides a comparison of the percentage of counted ballots by mail in the 2016 and 2018 elections by state.[1] For seventeen states, the percentage increased in 2018 compared to 2016 and for twenty-eight, the percentage decreased. Five states had incomplete or anomalous data, making a comparison inaccurate.[2]
All turnout data on this page was gathered from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission's (EAC) "Election Administration and Voting Survey" reports to Congress unless otherwise noted. The percentage of counted absentee/mail-in ballots was calculated by Ballotpedia by dividing the number of absentee/mail-in ballots counted by the total election turnout.
On this page you will find:
- An explanation of absentee/mail-in voting as it is used and analyzed on this page
- A comparison of absentee/mail-in vote shares in the 2016 and 2018 general elections
- A brief comparison of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots in the 2016 and 2018 general elections by state
- A brief analysis of uncalled races on election night following the 2018 general election
Absentee/mail-in voting
- See also: Absentee/mail-in voting
Absentee, mail-in or by-mail voting is voting that did not happen in person on Election Day but instead occurred another way (generally by mail).[3] All states allow for some form of absentee/mail-in balloting. Some states require voters to provide a valid excuse to vote absentee/by mail, while others allow any eligible voter to cast an absentee/mail-in ballot.[4] Absentee/mail-in voting procedures can be divided into two categories: automatic absentee/mail-in ballot systems and request-required absentee/mail-in ballot systems. Automatic absentee/mail-in ballot systems mandate that all eligible voters receive either a ballot or ballot application by default. These are sometimes referred to as all-mail voting systems. Request-required absentee/mail-in ballot systems require that eligible voters initiate the process for receiving and casting absentee/mail-in ballots. These have traditionally been described as absentee voting systems.
In 2016 and 2018:
- Three states used an automatic absentee/mail-in ballot system.
- Sixteen states required voters to provide an approved reason in order to receive an absentee/mail-in ballot.
- Thirty states allowed voters to request an absentee/mail-in ballot without providing a reason.
- One state allowed voters to request an absentee/mail-in ballot without an excuse in 2016 and switched to an automatic absentee/mail-in ballot system in 2018.
(hover over bolded text to view states)
Comparison of counted absentee/mail-in ballots between 2016 and 2018 general elections
- See also: Absentee/mail-in voting
For seventeen states, the percentage of ballots cast by mail increased in 2018 compared to 2016 and for twenty-eight, the percentage decreased. Five states had incomplete or anomalous data, making a comparison inaccurate.[5] Nationwide, the share of absentee/mail-in ballots decreased from 23.5% of all ballots counted in 2016 to 23.2% in 2018.
The map below shows absentee/mail-in votes as a share of total general election turnout by state in 2018. A darker shade indicates a larger share of absentee/mail-in votes. States shaded gray had data anomalies that prevented comparison.
The table below shows the share of absentee/mail-in ballots in the 2016 and 2018 general elections by state along with total turnout and the number of absentee/mail-in votes counted. All data in this section was gathered from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission's "Election Administration and Voting Survey" reports to Congress unless otherwise noted. Cells shaded in gray indicate a data anomaly identified by Ballotpedia.
| Comparison of absentee/mail-in vote share between the 2016 and 2018 general elections | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | 2016 | 2018 | Change | ||||
| Total turnout | Absentee/mail-in votes counted | % of total turnout | Total turnout | Absentee/mail-in votes counted | % of total turnout | ||
| Alabama | 2,137,452 | 87,553 | 4.1% | 1,723,694 | 54,833 | 3.2% | -0.9 |
| Alaska | 323,288 | 26,750 | 8.3% | 287,485 | 23,667 | 8.2% | -0.1 |
| Arizona | 2,722,660 | 1,991,683 | 73.2% | 2,409,906 | 1,874,577 | 77.8% | +4.6 |
| Arkansas | 1,048,513 | 26,655 | 2.5% | 790,656 | 11,611 | 1.5% | -1.0 |
| California | 14,610,494 | 8,453,683 | 57.9% | 13,828,680 | 8,289,322 | 59.9% | +2.0 |
| Colorado | 2,884,199 | 2,631,744 | 91.2% | 2,586,432 | 2,430,239 | 94.0% | +2.8 |
| Connecticut | 1,675,955 | 129,480 | 7.7% | 1,421,650 | 89,877 | 6.3% | -1.4 |
| Delaware | 448,217 | 13,809 | 3.1% | 366,550 | 13,436 | 3.7% | +0.6 |
| Florida | 9,613,669 | 2,657,064 | 27.6% | 8,355,817 | 2,585,374 | 30.9% | +3.3 |
| Georgia | 4,147,161 | 199,356 | 4.8% | 3,951,876 | 218,858 | 5.5% | +0.7 |
| Hawaii | 437,697 | 189,225 | 43.2% | 398,657 | 12,616[6] | 3.2% | N/A |
| Idaho | 710,495 | 200,380 | 28.2% | 612,582 | 72,872 | 11.9% | -16.3 |
| Illinois | 5,562,009 | 371,557 | 6.7% | 4,751,180 | 429,874 | 9.0% | +2.3 |
| Indiana | 2,831,540 | 923,455 | 32.6% | 2,933,234 | 750,339 | 25.6% | -7.0 |
| Iowa | 1,581,371 | 646,313 | 40.9% | 1,334,279 | 310,563 | 23.3% | -17.6 |
| Kansas | 1,223,491 | 177,701 | 14.5% | 1,070,221 | 170,641 | 15.9% | +1.4 |
| Kentucky | 1,949,254 | 35,967 | 1.8% | 1,619,587 | 23,971 | 1.5% | -0.3 |
| Louisiana | 2,049,802 | 57,476 | 2.8% | 1,519,552 | 41,363 | 2.7% | -0.1 |
| Maine | 771,892 | 251,701 | 32.6% | 646,083 | 183,644 | 28.4% | -4.2 |
| Maryland | 2,807,326 | 158,120 | 5.6% | 2,335,128 | 111,696 | 4.8% | -0.8 |
| Massachusetts | 3,378,801 | 150,742 | 4.5% | 2,753,623 | 84,280 | 3.1% | -1.4 |
| Michigan | 4,874,619 | 1,253,980 | 25.7% | 4,341,340 | 1,055,822 | 24.3% | -1.4 |
| Minnesota | 2,973,744 | 665,180 | 22.4% | 2,618,245 | 632,868 | 24.2% | +1.8 |
| Mississippi | 1,209,357 | 102,025 | 8.4% | 961,025 | 17,979[7] | 1.9% | N/A |
| Missouri | 2,973,855 | 273,336 | 9.2% | 2,553,274 | 211,178 | 8.3% | -0.9 |
| Montana | 516,901 | 332,541 | 64.3% | 508,652 | 366,188 | 72.0% | +7.7 |
| Nebraska | 869,815 | 233,889 | 26.9% | 708,924 | 167,332 | 23.6% | -3.3 |
| Nevada | 1,128,492 | 72,248 | 6.4% | 976,587 | 84,396 | 8.6% | +2.2 |
| New Hampshire | 757,669 | 70,376 | 9.3% | 581,551 | 43,416 | 7.5% | -1.8 |
| New Jersey | 3,957,303 | 344,897 | 8.7% | 3,248,642 | 392,931 | 12.1% | +3.4 |
| New Mexico | 804,073 | 47,429 | 5.9% | 701,654[8] | 68,376 | 9.7% | +3.8 |
| New York | 7,793,078 | 364,747 | 4.7% | 6,356,896 | 226,151 | 3.6% | -1.1 |
| North Carolina | 4,690,195 | 174,402 | 3.7% | 3,705,224 | 89,711 | 2.4% | -1.3 |
| North Dakota | 349,945 | 81,536 | 23.3% | 329,950 | 95,562 | 29.0% | +5.7 |
| Ohio | 5,607,641 | 1,193,227 | 21.3% | 4,520,678 | 929,985 | 20.6% | -0.7 |
| Oklahoma | 1,465,505 | 98,381 | 6.7% | 1,200,164 | 66,160 | 5.5% | -1.2 |
| Oregon | 2,051,452 | 2,033,878 | 99.1% | 1,914,923 | 7,043[9] | 0.4% | N/A |
| Pennsylvania | 6,223,150 | 262,877 | 4.2% | 5,057,630 | 186,664 | 3.7% | -0.5 |
| Rhode Island | 469,547 | 38,567 | 8.2% | 389,161 | 26,418 | 6.8% | -1.4 |
| South Carolina | 2,124,952 | 494,529 | 23.3% | 1,726,527[10] | 289,660 | 16.9% | -6.4 |
| South Dakota | 372,988 | 106,055 | 28.4% | 340,324 | 32,056[11] | 9.4% | N/A |
| Tennessee | 2,545,271 | 53,310 | 2.1% | 2,267,428 | 38,855 | 1.7% | -0.4 |
| Texas | 8,701,152 | 449,258 | 5.2% | 7,976,548 | 527,787 | 6.6% | +1.4 |
| Utah | 1,114,567 | 765,886 | 68.7% | 1,082,972 | 965,147 | 89.1% | +20.4 |
| Vermont | 323,623 | -[12] | - | 268,758 | 25,936 | 9.7% | N/A |
| Virginia | 3,996,302 | 535,563 | 13.4% | 3,343,186 | 95,238 | 2.8% | -10.6 |
| Washington | 3,363,452 | 3,300,241 | 98.1% | 3,133,462 | 3,064,219 | 97.8% | -0.3 |
| West Virginia | 732,362 | 16,373 | 2.2% | 597,149 | 10,238 | 1.7% | -0.5 |
| Wisconsin | 2,993,000 | 138,542 | 4.6% | 2,688,341 | 147,597 | 5.5% | +0.9 |
| Wyoming | 256,553 | 79,463 | 31.0% | 205,275 | 61,546 | 30.0% | -1.0 |
| U.S. Total | 140,114,503 | 32,982,211 | 23.5% | 120,314,461 | 27,881,846 | 23.2% | -0.3 |
2018 source: U.S. Election Assistance Commission, "Election Administration and Voting Survey"
2016 source: U.S. Election Assistance Commission, "Election Administration and Voting Survey"
Comparison of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots between 2016 and 2018 general elections
For thirty-five states, the percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots increased in 2018 compared to 2016 and for nine, the percentage decreased. Five states had no change and one—Vermont—had incomplete data and was excluded from this comparison. Nationwide, the share of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots increased from 1.0% of all absentee/mail-in ballots returned in 2016 to 1.4% in 2018.
The percentage of rejected absentee/mail-in ballots was less than 1% in 23 states in 2016 and greater than or equal to 1% in 26. In 2018, the percentage was less than 1% in 15 states and greater than or equal to 1% in 35.
To read more about the changes in rejected absentee/mail-in ballots between 2016 and 2018, click here.
Uncalled races on election night following the 2018 general election
Twenty-two U.S. Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections were not called on election night in 2018.
Ballotpedia's analysis suggests that races with larger margins of victory are more likely to remain uncalled after election night when there is a larger percentage of absentee/mail-in voting than when more voting occurred in person. The length of time before a race was called appears to be contingent more so upon the eventual margin of victory than the share of absentee/mail-in votes.
All of the uncalled races with margins of victory greater than 2% were in states where more than half of ballots were cast by mail. In races where the eventual margin of victory was less than 2%, only one race was in a state where more than half of ballots were cast by mail and it remained uncalled for 30 days. In states with a smaller share of absentee/mail-in votes, the average wait time was 12 days.
To read more about Ballotpedia's analysis of uncalled races on election night in 2018, click here.
The 2020 election took place against a backdrop of uncertainty. Our readers had questions about what to expect in elections at all levels of government, from the casting of ballots to the certification of final results. Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk was designed to answer those questions.
More frequently asked questions about the 2020 election
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- General election information
- Who runs elections in the United States?
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- Presidential election
- What happens if a presidential candidate declares victory in the 2020 election before results are final?
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- Processing and counting absentee/mail-in ballots
- What is the life cycle of an absentee/mail-in ballot?
- What happens if I vote by mail and want to change my ballot at a later date?
- What happens if someone votes by mail and then tries to vote in person?
- How do states protect and verify absentee/mail-in ballots?
- How do election workers match signatures?
- Are results reported on election night coming from in-person or absentee/mail-in votes?
- Do states report how many mail-in/absentee ballots are outstanding on election night?
- Do absentee/mail-in ballots take longer to count than in-person ballots?
- What happens if someone votes by mail-in ballot or absentee ballot and subsequently passes away before Election Day?
- Disputing election results
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- Articles about potential scenarios in the 2020 election
- U.S. Supreme Court actions affecting the November 3, 2020, general election
External links
- U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2018 "Election Administration and Voting Survey"
- U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2016 "Election Administration and Voting Survey"
Footnotes
- ↑ The number of ballots cast often differs from the number of ballots counted since states can reject ballots for a variety of reasons ranging from failing to provide a signature to using the incorrect return envelope. This analysis focuses on ballots counted rather than ballots cast.
- ↑ Those states were Oregon, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, and Hawaii.
- ↑ This analysis seeks to provide the most precise number of ballots cast by mail. However, 30 states allow for in-person absentee voting where voters receive and submit their absentee ballots at a physical location rather than by mail and, for some, they cannot accurately differentiate between absentee ballots submitted by mail and those submitted in-person. According to the EAC's 2018 report (pg. 11): "some states’ data management systems do not distinguish in-person absentee voters from by-mail voters, so not all of these states were able to report data on how many of their voters voted this way."
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "Absentee and Early Voting," July 30, 2019
- ↑ Those states were Oregon, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, and Hawaii.
- ↑ Hawaii reported a majority of mail-in ballots as "Other" rather than "Counted" in 2018
- ↑ Mississippi reported a majority of absentee/mail-in ballots as "Other" rather than "Counted" in 2018
- ↑ The numbers provided for New Mexico in 2018 come from the state's official canvas rather than the EAC report. In the EAC report, the state reported 448,987 absentee/mail-in ballots, 64.4% of the turnout listed as 697,681. The number of absentee/mail-in ballots reported by the state to the EAC most closely equals the number of absentee/mail-in ballots plus the number of early voting ballots reported on the canvas. Ballotpedia has only included the canvas' reported number of absentee ballots here.
- ↑ Oregon reported a majority of absentee/mail-in ballots as "Other" rather than "Counted" in 2018
- ↑ The numbers reported for 2018 come from a trends document located on the South Carolina Secretary of State's website rather than the EAC report. As a disclaimer, the document describes the number as "Ballots Cast" rather than ballots counted, meaning the total provided here might be higher than the total number counted. In 2016, the state rejected 0.57% of mail ballots. The EAC reported a total turnout of 1,739,705 absentee/mail-in ballots counted of 70,558 for a share of 4.1%.
- ↑ South Dakota reported a majority of absentee/mail-in ballots as "Other" rather than "Counted" in 2018
- ↑ Vermont did not report absentee/mail-in data for 2016
