FairVote's Dubious Democracy report about United States House of Representatives elections

FairVote, formerly the Center for Voting and Democracy, published a study of representative democracy in U.S. House elections. The analysis, titled "Dubious Democracy", compiled voting data to assess "the level of competition and the accuracy of representation in House elections in all 50 states from 1982 to 2010." The study also ranked each state based on the "average margin of victory, percentage of seats to votes, how many voters elect candidates and number of House races won by overwhelming landslides."

Methodology

FairVote used several metrics to evaluate the competitiveness and representation of elections.

• The Democracy Index combined four of FairVote's other measurements: Average Margin of Victory, Landslide Index, Seats-to-Votes
• The Distortion, and Representation Index was double-weighted for the Democracy Index since it captured both voter participation and vote impact.
• The Margin of Victory was the winner's percentage of the vote minus the second-place candidate's. "Dubious Democracy 2010" took the average of those figures to find a state's average margin of victory.
• Seats-to-Votes Distortion compared a party's percent gain or loss in seats with that party's percent advantage or disadvantage in votes.
• The Landslide Index measured the percentage of a state's U.S. House races that were won by 20% or more.
• The Representation Index multiplied voter turnout by the winning candidate's percentage of the vote to show the percentage of a state's eligible voters who voted for their elected representative.
• Voter Turnout was the percentage of eligible voters who voted in a given election.
• Incumbent Win Streaks ranked the states according to how long it had been since an incumbent was defeated.

2010 findings

In 2010, FairVote concluded that the nation as a whole had a Margin of Victory of 33%, a Landslide Index of 64.4%, and a Voter Turnout rate of 42.8%.

Margin of Victory

South Dakota had the smallest average margin of victory, at 2.4%; Oklahoma's was the widest at 59.6%. For comparison, South Dakota had one representative, and Oklahoma had five U.S. House seats at the time of the study.

Average Margin of Victory by State, 2010
Ranking	State	MOV
48	Alabama	54.6%
41	Alaska	38.6%
11	Arizona	18.9%
15	Arkansas	22.9%
39	California	36.1%
16	Colorado	23.3%
9	Connecticut	18.4%
7	Delaware	16.1%
44	Florida	42.5%
45	Georgia	46.8%
25	Hawaii	27.3%
30	Idaho	29.1%
36	Illinois	35.3%
22	Indiana	25.7%
6	Iowa	16.0%
33	Kansas	32.2%
32	Kentucky	30.5%
49	Louisiana	54.7%
5	Maine	12.0%
40	Maryland	37.5%
28	Massachusetts	28.0%
26	Michigan	27.9%
14	Minnesota	20.5%
13	Mississippi	20.3%
38	Missouri	35.8%
29	Montana	28.2%
43	Nebraska	41.2%
12	Nevada	20.0%
2	New Hampshire	6.9%
31	New Jersey	30.3%
3	New Mexico	9.5%
35	New York	35.2%
17	North Carolina	23.9%
4	North Dakota	9.8%
21	Ohio	25.4%
50	Oklahoma	59.6%
20	Oregon	25.2%
27	Pennsylvania	27.9%
10	Rhode Island	18.5%
19	South Carolina	25.0%
1	South Dakota	2.4%
42	Tennessee	40.1%
46	Texas	48.3%
37	Utah	35.3%
34	Vermont	33.7%
24	Virginia	27.2%
18	Washington	24.0%
8	West Virginia	17.5%
23	Wisconsin	26.1%
47	Wyoming	48.4%

Landslide Index

FairVote calculated that six states had no U.S. House races in which the winner won by at least 20%. Those states, which all had three or fewer seats, were Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

At the other end of the spectrum, the following states had landslides in all U.S. House elections: Alaska, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Vermont, and Wyoming. Many of those states had just one House seat; Louisiana had the most with six.

Landslide Index by State, 2010
Ranking	State	Landslide Index
22	Alabama	57.1%
44	Alaska	100.0%
9	Arizona	37.5%
15	Arkansas	50.0%
40	California	79.2%
22	Colorado	57.1%
25	Connecticut	60.0%
1	Delaware	0.0%
35	Florida	72.0%
37	Georgia	76.9%
15	Hawaii	50.0%
15	Idaho	50.0%
36	Illinois	73.7%
38	Indiana	77.8%
10	Iowa	40.0%
44	Kansas	100.0%
28	Kentucky	66.7%
44	Louisiana	100.0%
1	Maine	0.0%
43	Maryland	87.5%
10	Massachusetts	40.0%
28	Michigan	66.7%
15	Minnesota	50.0%
15	Mississippi	50.0%
28	Missouri	66.7%
44	Montana	100.0%
44	Nebraska	100.0%
28	Nevada	66.7%
1	New Hampshire	0.0%
34	New Jersey	69.2%
1	New Mexico	0.0%
24	New York	58.6%
14	North Carolina	46.2%
1	North Dakota	0.0%
15	Ohio	50.0%
41	Oklahoma	80.0%
10	Oregon	40.0%
13	Pennsylvania	42.1%
15	Rhode Island	50.0%
28	South Carolina	66.7%
1	South Dakota	0.0%
38	Tennessee	77.8%
42	Texas	84.4%
28	Utah	66.7%
44	Vermont	100.0%
27	Virginia	63.6%
7	Washington	33.3%
7	West Virginia	33.3%
26	Wisconsin	62.5%
44	Wyoming	100.0%

Voter Turnout

In Minnesota, an estimated 55% of eligible voters cast their ballots in 2010, the most of any state. Oklahoma had the least engaged voters, with 29.9% turnout.

Voter Turnout by State, 2010
Ranking	State	Turnout
35	Alabama	39.3%
6	Alaska	51.5%
36	Arizona	39.2%
41	Arkansas	37.2%
26	California	42.2%
10	Colorado	49.3%
17	Connecticut	45.4%
11	Delaware	48.4%
32	Florida	40.7%
39	Georgia	37.4%
29	Hawaii	41.4%
24	Idaho	42.5%
30	Illinois	41.4%
40	Indiana	37.4%
9	Iowa	49.8%
27	Kansas	41.9%
25	Kentucky	42.3%
45	Louisiana	35.7%
2	Maine	54.6%
16	Maryland	45.6%
8	Massachusetts	50.6%
21	Michigan	43.8%
1	Minnesota	55.0%
42	Mississippi	37.0%
22	Missouri	43.3%
13	Montana	47.8%
38	Nebraska	38.2%
28	Nevada	41.5%
18	New Hampshire	44.5%
43	New Jersey	36.5%
23	New Mexico	42.7%
46	New York	33.7%
34	North Carolina	39.4%
14	North Dakota	47.7%
20	Ohio	44.3%
50	Oklahoma	29.9%
7	Oregon	51.4%
31	Pennsylvania	41.4%
19	Rhode Island	44.4%
33	South Carolina	39.7%
4	South Dakota	53.2%
47	Tennessee	33.4%
49	Texas	30.8%
48	Utah	32.1%
12	Vermont	48.3%
37	Virginia	38.5%
5	Washington	52.4%
44	West Virginia	36.3%
3	Wisconsin	53.7%
15	Wyoming	47.0%

External links

• FairVote website
• FairVote's "Dubious Democracy 2010"

Footnotes

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