Indiana's 6th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Indiana's 6th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 7, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Greg Pence (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Voting in Indiana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Indiana's 6th Congressional District
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Indiana elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 6th Congressional District of Indiana, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Greg Pence won election in the general election for U.S. House Indiana District 6.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
February 7, 2020
June 2, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Greg Pence, who was first elected in 2018. The election was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.

Indiana's 6th Congressional District takes in a large portion of eastern Indiana, including Bartholomew, Dearborn, Decatur, Delaware, Fayette, Franklin, Hancock, Henry, Jefferson, Jennings, Ohio, Randolph, Ripley, Rush, Shelby, Switzerland, Union, and Wayne counties and a portion of Scott county.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Indiana's 6th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 29.1 27.8
Republican candidate Republican Party 68.8 68.7
Difference 39.7 40.9

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Indiana did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Indiana District 6

Incumbent Greg Pence defeated Jeannine Lee Lake and Tom Ferkinhoff in the general election for U.S. House Indiana District 6 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Pence
Greg Pence (R)
 
68.7
 
225,318
Image of Jeannine Lee Lake
Jeannine Lee Lake (D)
 
27.8
 
91,103
Image of Tom Ferkinhoff
Tom Ferkinhoff (L)
 
3.6
 
11,791

Total votes: 328,212
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 6

Jeannine Lee Lake defeated Barry Welsh and George Thomas Holland in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 6 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jeannine Lee Lake
Jeannine Lee Lake
 
70.3
 
23,900
Image of Barry Welsh
Barry Welsh
 
15.2
 
5,163
Image of George Thomas Holland
George Thomas Holland
 
14.5
 
4,923

Total votes: 33,986
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 6

Incumbent Greg Pence defeated Mike Campbell in the Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 6 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Pence
Greg Pence
 
83.6
 
62,346
Mike Campbell
 
16.4
 
12,234

Total votes: 74,580
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Indiana District 6

Tom Ferkinhoff advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Indiana District 6 on March 7, 2020.

Candidate
Image of Tom Ferkinhoff
Tom Ferkinhoff (L)

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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 92 Indiana counties—5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Delaware County, Indiana 13.43% 3.12% 14.98%
LaPorte County, Indiana 6.33% 12.57% 22.04%
Perry County, Indiana 18.55% 11.59% 22.84%
Porter County, Indiana 6.59% 3.90% 7.20%
Vigo County, Indiana 14.97% 0.86% 15.83%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Indiana with 56.9 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 37.8 percent. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) was Trump's running mate. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Indiana voted Republican 83.33 percent of the time and Democratic 16.67 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Indiana voted Republican four times and Democratic once when it voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Indiana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 25 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 32.9 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 25.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 75 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 34.3 points. Trump won six districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+18, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 18 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Indiana's 6th Congressional District the 52nd most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Greg Pence Republican Party $3,160,009 $2,849,708 $510,827 As of December 31, 2020
Jeannine Lee Lake Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Tom Ferkinhoff Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Indiana's 6th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Indiana's 6th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Indiana District 6

Greg Pence defeated Jeannine Lee Lake and Tom Ferkinhoff in the general election for U.S. House Indiana District 6 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Pence
Greg Pence (R)
 
63.8
 
154,260
Image of Jeannine Lee Lake
Jeannine Lee Lake (D)
 
32.9
 
79,430
Image of Tom Ferkinhoff
Tom Ferkinhoff (L)
 
3.3
 
8,030
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
6

Total votes: 241,726
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 6

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 6 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jeannine Lee Lake
Jeannine Lee Lake
 
38.3
 
8,890
Image of Jim Pruett
Jim Pruett
 
25.8
 
5,984
Image of Lane Siekman
Lane Siekman
 
15.6
 
3,612
Image of George Thomas Holland
George Thomas Holland
 
11.1
 
2,570
Image of Joshua Williamson
Joshua Williamson
 
7.3
 
1,695
K. Lave
 
1.9
 
446

Total votes: 23,197
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 6

Greg Pence defeated Jonathan Lamb, Stephen MacKenzie, Mike Campbell, and Jeff Smith in the Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 6 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Pence
Greg Pence
 
64.5
 
47,962
Image of Jonathan Lamb
Jonathan Lamb
 
23.6
 
17,526
Image of Stephen MacKenzie
Stephen MacKenzie
 
4.6
 
3,400
Mike Campbell
 
4.3
 
3,231
Jeff Smith
 
3.0
 
2,258

Total votes: 74,377
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Indiana's 6th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Luke Messer (R) defeated Barry Welsh (D) and Rich Turvey (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Messer defeated Charles Johnson Jr. and Jeff Smith in the Republican primary, while Welsh defeated Danny Basham, George Thomas Holland, Bruce Peavler, and Ralph Spelbring to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on May 3, 2016.[12][13][14]

U.S. House, Indiana District 6 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLuke Messer Incumbent 69.1% 204,920
     Democratic Barry Welsh 26.7% 79,135
     Libertarian Rich Turvey 4.2% 12,330
Total Votes 296,385
Source: Indiana Division of Elections


U.S. House, Indiana District 6 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngLuke Messer Incumbent 77.7% 91,828
Jeff Smith 12.7% 14,963
Charles Johnson Jr. 9.7% 11,447
Total Votes 118,238
Source: Indiana Secretary of State
U.S. House, Indiana District 6 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBarry Welsh 35.6% 15,258
Danny Basham 24.4% 10,474
George Holland 20.6% 8,851
Bruce Peavler 11.4% 4,897
Ralph Spelbring 7.9% 3,385
Total Votes 42,865
Source: Indiana Secretary of State

2014

See also: Indiana's 6th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 6th Congressional District of Indiana held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Luke Messer (R) defeated Susan Hall Heitzman (D) and Eric Miller (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Indiana District 6 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLuke Messer Incumbent 65.9% 102,187
     Democratic Susan Hall Heitzman 29.3% 45,509
     Libertarian Eric Miller 4.8% 7,375
Total Votes 155,071
Source: Indiana Secretary of State Official Results

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Jim Baird (R)
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (2)